|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Tuesday: AGN; ANPI; CORI; VIP
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
Leader Plays: May not be ready for a split but can make us good money and some can grow into split candidates.
Play Date: 02/03/2004
CCRN (Cross Country--$18.74; +0.66; optionable): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccrn.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Staffing services are doing well, seeing the pickup in employment reflected in their numbers even though permanent hires are not showing up on the non-farm payrolls. It broke out of a 14 week cup base in early January and shot up to 19.93 on the high. It faded back the past two weeks on low volume, coming back to the 18 day MVA (18.11) in the test. Tuesday it was up on a big shot of above average volume, jumping off the 18 day. Money flow is jumping up ahead of price and relative strength broke out on the first move, a solid indication of the stock's performance. Looking to pick it up on a further volume move ahead of the jobs report.
Volume: 474.574K Avg Volume: 286.863K
BUY POINT: $19.06 Volume=430K Target=$22.88 Stop=$18.08
POSITION: QCK FW - June $17.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ccrn.html
Play Date: 02/03/2004
JADE (LJ Intl.--$5.56; +0.39; no options): Jewelry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jade.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. JADE looks to be making the breakout move from a 6.5 month base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). The base formed at the 50 day MVA (4.53); that along with the accumulation shows there is some big money supporting the stock. Volume has surged the past three weeks as the stock formed the right side of the base, and that is the exact price/volume action you want to see. Jumping higher Tuesday on strong volume. Looking to move in on a further move on continued strong trade.
Volume: 433.66K Avg Volume: 161.59K
BUY POINT: $5.68 Volume=242K Target=$7.12 Stop=$5.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jade.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/03/2004
HAR (Harman Intl.--$70.20; +1.89; optionable): High end car audio, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Put. A big leader to the upside that made us a lot of money in 2003 looks to be ready to correct into a base to prepare for the next move. It tanked through the 50 day MVA (71.62) Monday on strong trade and immediately tried to rebound Tuesday. Volume was lower, however, and after tapping the 50 day MVA on the high it faded back. Looking for it to fall back down and continue to work on the base. It can make us some nice money just by dropping to a support level at 65. Once they turn, they can sell hard before the bottom of the base is set.
Volume: 1.512M Avg Volume: 549.636K
BUY POINT: $69.96 Volume=1M Target=$65.92 Stop=$71.72
POSITION: HAR ON - Mar. $70p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Continuing Leader Plays
Play Date: 01/22/2004
CENT (Central Garden & Pet--$33.25; -0.25; optionable): Branded pet and outdoor supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cent.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CENT is making its second test of the 10 day MVA (33.16) after breaking out of a nice 6 month flat base. After drying up to below average before the breakout, volume has surged as CENT blasted higher in January. It is making a short, lower volume pullback to the 10 day, holding that level with a doji Tuesday. Super money flow and an excellent relative strength breakout show how solid the move is. Looking for volume to jump back up as it rebounds.
Volume: 143.971K Avg Volume: 140.09K
BUY POINT: New: $34.38 (orig. $33.05) Volume=200K Target=$39 Stop=$32.94
POSITION: EQH EF - May $30c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cent.html
Play Date: 01/15/2004
DFIB (Cardiac Science--$5.02; +0.03; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dfib.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DFIB is testing the breakout from a 17 week reverse head and shoulder base. It exploded higher mid-month and is now testing back on lower volume, dropping well below average the past three sessions as it holds the 10 day MVA (4.97). Excellent money flow leading higher, and we are looking for the stock to continue the breakout and follow it higher.
Volume: 456.435K Avg Volume: 950.863K
BUY POINT: $5.15 Volume=1.2M Target=$6.12 Stop=$4.79
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dfib.html
Play Date: 01/27/2004
GEMS (Glenayre Technologies--$3.84; +0.07; no options): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gems.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Another stock that formed a reversed head and shoulders and broke out in mid-January. As the market has sold back GEMS has come back to test the breakout and the 18 day MVA (3.60) on lower, below average volume. Excellent money flow should lead the stock right back up. A relative strength breakout shows the move was solid.
Volume: 245.097K Avg Volume: 509.727K
BUY POINT: $4.04 Volume=1.4M Target=$5.25 Stop=$3.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gems.html
Play Date: 01/24/2004
SEAC (Seachange Intl.--$19.98; 0; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/seac.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A big reach lower Tuesday, but then rebounding to hold the 10 day MVA (19.57). SEAC is still making its second test of the breakout from its 10 week reverse head and shoulders base, holding the 10 day MVA as it does. We are still expecting it to break higher from here and follow the strong money flow higher.
Volume: 518.681K Avg Volume: 492.363K
BUY POINT: New: 20.94 (orig. $19.77) Volume=600K Target=$23.58 Stop=$19.22
POSITION: UEG GW - July $17.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/seac.html
Play Date: 02/02/2004
VANS (Vans--$12.63; -0.07; optionable): Apparel, footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vans.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume has dropped to nil as VANS continues to form the handle to its nice 9 week base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base, setting the foundation for the advance. Super money flow is leading the stock higher even as it pulls back. Looking for the stock to follow it.
Volume: 73.64K Avg Volume: 164.227K
BUY POINT: $13.06 Volume=250K Target=$15.62 Stop=$12.15
POSITION: VQG GV - July $12.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vans.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: No split announced with 2-2-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. Surging on strong volume.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Forecast 1-28-04. No split but a solid move continues.
DE: Forecast 2-14-04. Continues to struggle.
DNA: Forecast 1-14-04. No split announced but we want to stay in this one as it gives opportunities.
ELAB: Forecast 2-19-04
IRM: Forecast 2-27-04
LXK: Forecast 1-26-04 before the open. No split, but big earnings and making a nice test of the 10 day MVA.
MBG: Researching new date.
MBT: Researching date. Breaking higher again but volume not following.
MGAM: Announced the split and bounced off the 50 day MVA.
NMGA: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close.
NSIT: Forecast 2-5-04 after the close.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04.
SHFL: Forecast 2-19-04 with earnings.
STRA: Forecast 2-14-04 during the market.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Forecast 2-19 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. What a move.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04.
XTO: Forecast 2-18-04 in conjunction with earnings. Trying to recover the 50 day MVA.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/03/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$76.02; +1.77; optionable): Generic Drugs. Forecast to announce a split 2-5-04 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3 for 2 on March 18, 2003 at a price of $75.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. BRL is working on the right shoulder to an 8 week base that has formed more or less at the 50 day MVA (75.53). It is moving up for the breakout, clearing the 50 day MVA Tuesday on continued above average volume. Money flow is shooting higher ahead of the stock, and we are looking for the stock to follow it higher and move into positions ahead of earnings.
Volume: 893.9K Avg Volume: 703.954K
BUY POINT: $77.04 Volume=1.1M Target=$88.55 Stop=$75.35
POSITION: BRL EO - May $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 02/02/2004
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$50.10; +0.50; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Announced solid earnings 1-26. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 back in 1995 at $45.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the breakout, rallying to the buy point Tuesday but on a bit lower volume than we wanted to see. It now has put together two solid back-to-back volume sessions, so if we get another good volume surge Wednesday we will move into positions. A nice 11 week base with accumulation at 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). The base formed at the 50 day MVA (47.08), another sign of institutional support. Money flow is solid.
Volume: 290.85K Avg Volume: 201.909K
BUY POINT: New: $50.44 (orig. $50.22) Volume=500K Target=$58 Stop=$48.42
POSITION: UID GJ - July $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idxx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/03/2004
DNA (Genentech--$96.60; +0.60; optionable): Biotechnology. Looking for the next potential date as did not announce on 1-14.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 10-5-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $172. Things were a bit wilder then, and now near $100 DNA is ready for another split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Edging back up after a test of the 10 day MVA (95.47) following the strong move the past two weeks. Started higher Tuesday but volume went the wrong way. Just want to see volume jump on a continued move.
Volume: 1.148M Avg Volume: 2.127M
BUY POINT: New: $97.06 (orig. $95.44) Volume=3M Target=$102 Stop=$93.88
POSITION: DNA CS - Mar. $95c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dna.html
Play Date: 01/24/2004
NMGA (Neiman Marcus Group--$55.65; -0.21; optionable): High end department stores. Forecast to announce a split 3-3-04 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Based on our research NMGA has never announced a split. It is trading at an all-time high, however, and in a range where retailers frequently announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmga.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume has really dropped off as NMGA tests the breakout point in its 9 week base. It is holding over the 10 day MVA (55.06) now, so it is getting squeezed to a certain extent. Want to see volume jump as it makes the breakout move. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base has set the foundation for a breakout as it shows the stock has been accumulated during this lateral consolidation. Again, we have to be patient and see the move on volume.
Volume: 56.7K Avg Volume: 168.636K
BUY POINT: $55.39 Volume=254K Target=$63.75 Stop=$53.48
POSITION: NMG GK - July $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nmga.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$33.12; +0.21; optionable): Did not announce a split January 24 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting at 1:30 p.m. CT. Still a good pattern and we are looking to enter and be ready for the next possible date.
BACKGROUND: SONC last announced a 3:2 split 1-17-02 at its annual shareholder meeting with a stock price of $36.30. A frequent splitter announce roughly every 2 years.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A nice, low volume decline to the top of the prior base at 32 has held, and this week SONC started back up with volume rising to average as it does. Money flow remains excellent ahead of the price, and we are looking for SONC to hold here and continue the move with a volume bounce off of this level.
Volume: 293.823K Avg Volume: 296.363K
BUY POINT: $34.28 Volume=562K Target=$41 Stop=$32.68
POSITION: ZSQ FF - June $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 01/29/2004
CALM (Cal-Maine Foods--$36.52; -0.47; no options): Atkins diet foods. Splits 2:1 on a date to be determined.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/calm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still a very nice pattern, bouncing off the 18 day MVA (33.98) on a solid volume surge Monday. Excellent base with 2 to 0 accumulation setting the table for another breakout. Still a solid pattern and still a buy on a further volume move up from here.
Volume: 545.361K Avg Volume: 551.136K
BUY POINT: New: $36.88 (orig. $35.65) Volume=650K Target=$42.75 Stop=$33.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/calm.html
Play Date: 01/29/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$30.02; -0.07; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit. Splits 2:1 on 2-9-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice doji on the 10 day MVA (30.14) Tuesday as volume backed off to below average levels. Very nice test of the big break higher last week, and we are ready for MSCC to follow money flow back up.
Volume: 232.132K Avg Volume: 389.09K
BUY POINT: $30.88 Volume=700K Target=$35.55 Stop=$29.88
POSITION: QMS FF - June $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
Play Date: 01/22/2004
NATI (National Instruments--$48.73; -0.04; optionable): Computer peripherals. Splits 3:2 on 2-23-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still coming back to test the breakout, holding over the 18 day MVA (48.38) on very low volume. NATI exploded higher 7 sessions back, and in the heavy market selling it simply eased back on light volume, indicating no major selling. Looking for it to hold here or at the 18 day and bounce higher on stronger volume.
Volume: 98.061K Avg Volume: 190K
BUY POINT: $50.35 Volume=300K Target=$57 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: SJQ FJ - June $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nati.html
Play Date: 01/29/2004
NFLX (Netflix--$71.90; -0.83; optionable): DVD mail order rentals. Splits 2:1 on 2-12-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Started up last Friday on above average volume, but then backed off this week. Still holding up, testing toward the 18 day MVA (69.07) Tuesday intraday and rebounding to hold the 10 day at the close on rising, above average volume. Solid stock, and just looking for volume to hop up as it starts another move.
Volume: 2.403M Avg Volume: 2.239M
BUY POINT: $72.78 Volume=5M Target=$80 Stop=$69.88
POSITION: QNQ CN - Mar. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nflx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
