stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 4 of 4

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.

New Pre-Split Play:

UOPX (Univ of Phoenix Online--$54.09; +0.86; no options): Education. Splits 3:2 effective July 23.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Broke out from a cup with handle in a May and, after testing the breakout, has surged over 50%. It is somewhat erratic at the moment, but holding over its 10 day MVA (50.42). Friday it tapped a new high at 55.50 but pulled back as volume declined from the very high recent levels (down to 151,500; average 104,500). We will look for the stock to hold the 10 day on a pullback and then jump from there. On a move to a new high we will be diligent with stops to protect profits. Relative strength has broken out the stock shows strong buying.
PLAY: A move up after a pullback holds the 10 day MVA. From here: A move over 55.50 on increased volume. Stock only.

Continuing Pre-Split Plays:

KG (King Pharmaceuticals--$57.99; +1.69; optionable): Splits 4:3 on or about July 19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kg.html
STATUS: KG has made a couple of impressive intraday moves as it tries to break out of its second handle to a cup, but has pulled way back off of its intraday highs each of the last two sessions (59.75 Friday). Volume has been excellent on the moves (way down Friday at 1.9 million; average 1.13 million), and the pattern suggests a pullback. If it does we will look for it to hold the 56 range (10 day MVA at 54.51) and make a move it can hold.
PLAY: Pullback: A strong move up after a test of the 56 level, with stock and /or August $50 calls to buy (KG HJ).

TARO (Taro Pharmaceutical--$77.40; -0.96; optionable: Drugs. Splits 2:1 July 27.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Broke out from a cup with handle last October and has increased more than fourfold since, but since hitting a high of 90.50 in late June, it has steadily declined. It gave up its 10 & 18 day MVA's (80.97 and 79.94, respectively) Thursday before gapping down Friday, pushing back up a bit to close. It touched support at 75 from early June levels (the 50 day MVA is back at 70.81), so we will see if it can use this support to push it back up for a pre-split run.
PLAY: A move back over the 10 day MVA, with stock and/or August $70 calls to buy (QTT HN).

BMET (Biomet--$45.80; -0.20; optionable): Medical equipment. Splits 3:2 on or about August 6.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
STATUS: BMET has rebounded from its sharp fall back below its 50 day MVA (44.69), showing some more strength after making its split announcement. After surging back over the 50 day Wednesday, the stock has pulled somewhat laterally, showing a doji Friday over its short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 45.58 and 45.78, respectively). We will see if the stock can hold these levels, but we could see another test of the 50 day first. Strictly a momentum play at the moment (as most pre-splits are) trying to make it back to its high of 49.18.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 47 on increased volume near the average (1.56 million; Friday 1.3 million), with stock and/or October $45 calls to buy (BIQ JI).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

ACF (Americredit--$59.55; +0.84; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: ACF broke out this week from a cup with handle (handle formed as an ascending wedge), and making a strong move that weakened a bit Friday, although the stock closed up again. Volume dipped back to below average levels (943,300; average 1 million), so we will expect a pullback here to test the breakout (which was at 55). We will look for it to hold the 10 day MVA (55.60) or better, looking for a continuation of the move toward our target of 62-63. The stock has been a tremendous performer, rising almost fourfold in the past 12 months.
BUY POINT: After a test of the breakout, holding the 55-56 range, a move back up on continued strong volume. Stop: 51.15.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (ACF HJ).

ASFC (Astoria Financial--$59.90; +0.50; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: We stuck with ASFC through its repeated failures at the 58 level and its recent volatility, and it finally made a solid breakout. It has steadily climbed the last two weeks, but volume has declining the last three sessions, although only slightly down Friday at 398,700 (average 361,400). It is still a buy on the breakout up to 61.48 (5% over the breakout point), but it could make a pullback to test the breakout before continuing up to that level. The stock has had some trouble sustaining moves, but we will look for a strong move up after ASFC demonstrates that is can hold support. Target: 65.
BUY POINT: From here: Over 60.30 on increased volume. Stop: 56.08. Pullback: After a lower-volume pullback holds the 58.50-59 level, a move back up from there on increased volume. Stop: 54.87.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or October $55 calls to buy (AQR JK).

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$76.71; +2.71; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: A beautiful breakout move for CBH, which had failed on a May breakout attempt from a large cup with handle, but has succeeded on its move from seven-week saucer with handle. After a tepid beginning, we got the volume we were looking for Friday as the stock blasted up. Volume was 369,200 (average 147,100), and the stock has flown past the range where we like to chase breakouts. We will see if it comes back for a test, and look at new or additional positions on a move back up. Target: 80.
BUY POINT: A move up on continued strong volume after a lower volume pullback that holds the 73-74 range. Stop: 67.90-68.80.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (CBH ).

CECO (Career Education--$61.75; -1.02; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-1-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-11-01 at 1:00 pm CDT at which time additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split without increasing authorized shares.
STATUS: Just keeps steadily climbing, now up along its 10 day MVA (60.08; 18 day has also been support at 58.77) after having used its 50 day (55.07) before mid-June. The stock reached up to a new high intraday Thursday (64.05), testing the 10 day MVA at its low Friday before rallying a bit to close. Volume spiked up on Friday's action (433,500; average 215,000). There is no real pattern here except for an uptrend, and we need to bear in mind that the stock could be ready to come back and test its 50 day MVA soon. We can, however, still look at positions on a move up on strong volume after another successful test of the 10 day. Still showing great money flow and relative strength, with solid buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding the 10 day on a pullback, a strong move back over 62 with continued strong volume. Stop: 57.66.
POSITION: Stock only.

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$29.46; +1.41; optionable): No announcement this week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: Is trying a recovery here, Friday moving back over its 200 day MVA (28.69). It has taken quite a drop from its May high near 47, and after the strength of the drops we saw that led to it tanking through the 200 day recently, we will need to see a lot more from here before we are interested in upside positions. As it stands, it has quite a bit of resistance just ahead, with late June lows at 30, along with the 18 day MVA (30.01). For now we can still keep a put play in mind if we get selling back. There is support here in the 25 range from this week's and February-April lows.
BUY POINT: A move back below 27.50 on increased volume, watching the 24-25 range for the next level of support.
POSITION: August $35 puts to buy (URH TG).

IGT (International Game Technology--$58.81; +0.68; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that IGT has ever announced a split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: IGT is struggling and could still present a put play. It made a hard retreat, crashing through its 50 day MVA (59.79) but rebounded to test that level after finding support at 55-56. After a strong bounce the stock could only show a doji Friday, and volume dipped back to below average levels (689,800; average 806,600). Off of the doji we could get more selling, with the recent low at 55.10, with possible support from the May lows in the 53-54 range. We are targeting the 50-52 range (200 day MVA at 49.74).
BUY POINT: A drop back through 58 on above average volume.
POSITION: August $65 puts to buy (IGT TM).

KRB (MBNA Corp--$34.97; +1.06; optionable): No announcement but a good move with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/krb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-14-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $40. KRB is a holding company and does not hold annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Has taken a strong fall the past month from the 38 range, but is trying a move back up now after having found support (twice at 32). Friday it moved past its 50 day MVA (34.49), continuing its move on lower, but continued good volume of 2.98 million (average 2.31 million). It now rests just below the 200 day (35.24), which is also in the range of some May lows. There is quite a bit of potential support to the downside, so we will hold off on a put from here, and see if the stock can sustain something to the upside.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: A move back over the 200 day MVA with continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $30 calls to buy (KRB IF).

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$39.76; +1.04; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After gapping below its 50 day MVA (37.61) Thursday but pushing back up to recovery, the stock continued the move Friday, surging back over its short-term MVA's (18 day at 38.94). Volume has been big on this solid move (down to 381,000 Friday; average 208,400), so we will see it can maintain its way up to the breakout. The handle high is 42.06, with the closing high at 41.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 41 on continued strong volume. Breakout: 42.19 on minimum volume of 312,000).
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (IKQ IG). Breakout: Stock and/or September $40 calls to buy (IKQ IG).

MMM (Minnesota Mining--$112.23; -1.30):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-15-94 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $102. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-8-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: MMM continues its steady downtrend, currently riding down under its 10 day MVA (114), with a confluence of other MVA's just above that (50 day at 116.32). We will see if it can make a stronger recovery; meanwhile, it is too tight for a put play. Nothing for now.

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

BAX (Baxter International--$47.65; -0.47; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 effective 5-30-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: BAX is trying to hold on after being taken down on a downgrade. The stock crashed through the 50 day MVA (49.07) and has made a couple of tests of that level, one of them Friday before pulling back to close with a loose doji. It is currently holding support in the range of the highs in its March-May saucer pattern. We will continue to watch for downside weakness, looking for a bounce back toward the 50 day off of this pattern, and then heavy selling on a failure of that move. Targeting the 200 day MVA (44.75), in the range of its saucer lows, as an exit point.
PLAY: After a failed move up on lower volume (up to a strong 3.38 million Friday; average 1.78 million), strong selling back through 47.50, with August $52.50 puts to buy (BAX TX).

FIC (Fair Isaac--$66.36; +0.10; optionable): Business services. Split 3:2 effective June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: FIC has been an amazing performer, and keeps on going. As it just keeps trending higher, there is not much left to say about it now except that it has broken from three solid bases now, and could be due for a test of its 50 day MVA (55), but it has shown great resiliency. We are dropping for now, but will watch it for the next buying opportunity.

GENZ (Genzyme--$55.95; -0.29; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Biotechnology. Broke out on the last session of June, but closed well off of its intraday high of 64 (closing high 61) and subsequently has made a steady pullback. Earlier in the week the stock was holding its 18 day MVA (56.62), but fell through it mid-week to test the 50 day (54.48). Although it has yet to fully recover, the stock has been solid, and has consistently used the 50 day for good moves up. Friday showed us a shooting star doji on lower, but still strong volume (3.86 million, average 2.95 million). We are looking for a bounce up from here. Our target on the initial breakout was 65. We may see some resistance at the 60 level, where the stock tapped at some recent intraday highs.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 57.50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 53.48. Safer: 61.13 (over the closing high of 61) on continued strong volume. Stop 56.85.

JNJ (Johnson & Johnson--$53.05; +0.21; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: Is resting a bit after having made a strong bounce this week off of its 50 day MVA (50.58). Friday it reached up to 53.63 before pulling back to close, but is still holding its 10 day MVA (52.22) and its trendline (connecting March and May closing lows, at about 52.80). Volume dipped way back but was still above average (5.6 million; average 5.3 million), so we will see if the stock can hold support here and make a move on its high of 54.20.
PLAY: Breakout: Over 54.20 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (JNJ JJ). Stop: 49.97.

WFMI (Whole Foods--$26.95; -0.50; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: WFMI has been moving in a long handle to a cup pattern, and has failed several recent attempts to break through 28.40 (handle high 29.40). Earlier this week the stock closed down below the 18 day MVA (27.44) on sharply increased volume and has yet to push back through. As expected, Friday the stock fell back to tap its 50 day MVA (26.81), although the move occurred on lower than average volume (286,000, average is 446,800). The stock is still well within in its handle range and has bounced up from the 50 day before (26, the bottom of the handle range has also provided support.). We will look for another move up from the 50 day, and look for the stock to take out recent resistance for positions.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 28.50 on above average volume, with stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (FMQ HY). Stop: 26.50. Breakout: 29.55 on volume of 670,000, with stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (FMQ HY). Stop: 27.50.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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