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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Thursday: ABTL; BRNC; NFLX; OTEX; STJ; TIVO; WWCA
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 02/05/2004
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$64.64; +0.31; optionable): Electronics. Splits 2:1 on 3-30-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. A very good educational pattern. It broke from a 3 month flat base in mid-October, rallied up the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA) four times and then made a test lower to the 50 day MVA (63.80). This is how strong stocks run when they breakout from their bases. The 50 day MVA is a good place to pick up positions.
Volume: 100.3K Avg Volume: 160.545K
BUY POINT: $65.25 Volume=200K Target=$72 Stop=$63.68
POSITION: APH DM - Apr. $65c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 02/05/2004
SYMC (Symantec--$39.75; +0.9; optionable): Internet security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Broke out of a 2 month flat base in January and rallied up to 40. It has spent the past 2 weeks moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (38.96) on lower and lower, below average volume. SYMC is making a ton of money in computer protection business, and these patterns show a stock is very strong as it refuses to give up its gains. That is shown in the relative strength that broke out as it moved laterally. Letting it consolidate the move and looking for volume to jump as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 3.308M Avg Volume: 4.801M
BUY POINT: $40.32 Volume=6M Target=$46.48 Stop=$38.76
POSITION: SYQ GH - July $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/symc.html
Leader Plays: May not be ready for a split but can make us good money and some can grow into split candidates.
Play Date: 02/05/2004
OLGC (Orthologic--$8.20; +0.85; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/olgc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Making the breakout from a 14 week base showing outstanding 7 to 0 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Excellent volume the past two sessions as it completed the base and then made the breakout. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out again on the move. Just moving over the breakout point and ready to move in on a further volume gain.
Volume: 723.68K Avg Volume: 214.909K
BUY POINT: $8.28 Volume=500K Target=$9.95 Stop=$7.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/olgc.html
Play Date: 02/05/2004
AUO (AU Optronics--$15.48; +1.00; no options): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/auo.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A very nice 15 week base sporting strong 8 to 3 accumulation. AUO attempted the breakout last week but reversed course. Showed its strength by hold the 18 day MVA (14.31) and then blasting off Thursday on strong trade. Relative strength is making the breakout, indicating that AUO is outperforming most stocks in the market at this point in time.
Volume: 2.674M Avg Volume: 1.503M
BUY POINT: $15.68 Volume=2.3M Target=$18.84 Stop=$14.58
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/auo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/05/2004
AVID (Avid Technology--$43; +1.07; optionable): Electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avid.html
STATUS: Put. AVID collapsed at the end of January, tanking through the 200 day MVA (45.16) on a volume crescendo. It held at 42 and is bouncing back toward the 200 day. It hit 44.42 on the high and faded back. Still think it will make a further move higher to test the 200 day, and when it rolls back over after that test, that is when we move in.
Volume: 1.121M Avg Volume: 588.863K
BUY POINT: $44.45 Volume=600K Target=$40.35 Stop=$45.25
POSITION: AQI OI - Mar. $45p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avid.html
Continuing Leader Plays
Play Date: 01/31/2004
ABTL (Autobytel--$12.22; +1.22; optionable): Internet auto services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abtl.html
STATUS: Test breakout. ABTL broke higher on strong volume last week but then faded back to support at 11 this week as the market sold. Thursday it found its footing and surged again on very solid trade. A nice 4 month base showing excellent money flow and accumulation. A buy on a continued strong volume move.
Volume: 868.29K Avg Volume: 492.727K
BUY POINT: $12.83 Volume=775K Target=$15.45 Stop=$11.89
POSITION: BCU EV - May $12.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/abtl.html
Play Date: 02/03/2004
JADE (LJ Intl.--$5.04; -0.19; no options): Jewelry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jade.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working in the handle of the 6.5 month base, showing a doji at the 18 day MVA (5.03) on very low, below average volume. Strong 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) is setting the stage for a strong breakout. The base formed at the 50 day MVA (4.57); that along with the accumulation shows there is some big money supporting the stock.
Volume: 134.344K Avg Volume: 168.454K
BUY POINT: $5.68 Volume=242K Target=$7.12 Stop=$5.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jade.html
Play Date: 01/31/2004
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$28.22; +0.05; optionable): Networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Showing amazing strength as the market sells. JNPR is holding the 10 day MVA (28.08) as the market sells off, showing a doji over that level. Just being patient and letting it move laterally until the break higher.
Volume: 15.332M Avg Volume: 10.712M
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=15M Target=$35.45 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: JUX GF - July $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jnpr.html
Play Date: 02/02/2004
VANS (Vans--$12.55; +0.05; optionable): Apparel, footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vans.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the excellent handle to its 9 week base sporting 3 to 1 accumulation. Super money flow is surging higher as VANS works laterally over the 18 day MVA (12.36) on low volume. Just being patient and waiting for the breakout. Showing excellent strength in a selling market.
Volume: 96.846K Avg Volume: 164.409K
BUY POINT: $13.06 Volume=250K Target=$15.62 Stop=$12.15
POSITION: VQG GV - July $12.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vans.html
Play Date: 01/29/2004
WWCA (Western Wireless--$23.30; +0.83; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. WWCA is moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (22.62) after breaking out of a 4 month base that formed along the 50 day MVA (20.68). Thursday it was jumping higher on a huge volume spike. Money flow is shooting higher, and WWCA is still a buy on a further move from here.
Volume: 3.852M Avg Volume: 1.328M
BUY POINT: New: $23.74 (orig. $23.06) Volume=2M Target=$27.72 Stop=$22.15
POSITION: WRQ EX - May $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wwca.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: No split announced with 2-2-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. Testing the nice surge.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Forecast 1-28-04. No split but a solid move continues.
DE: Forecast 2-14-04. Continues to struggle.
DNA: Forecast 1-14-04. No split announced but we want to stay in this one as it gives opportunities.
ELAB: Forecast 2-19-04
IRM: Forecast 2-27-04
LXK: Forecast 1-26-04 before the open. No split, but big earnings and making a nice test of the 10 day MVA.
MBG: Researching new date.
MBT: Researching date. Consolidating the nice move in a lateral run over the 10 day MVA.
MGAM: Announced the split and consolidating on the 50 day MVA. Want to see it move but is stuck in the mud right now.
NMGA: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close.
NSIT: Forecast 2-5-04 after the close. Beat by 4 cents but have not seen a split announcement.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04.
SHFL: Forecast 2-19-04 with earnings.
STRA: Forecast 2-14-04 during the market.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Forecast 2-19 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. Testing some, coming back to the 10 day MVA.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04.
XTO: Forecast 2-18-04 in conjunction with earnings. Trying to recover the 50 day MVA.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/03/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$75.95; +0.65; optionable): Generic Drugs. No split 2-5-04 before the open but still looking for an announcement soon.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3 for 2 on March 18, 2003 at a price of $75.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Reported strong earnings and posted a modest gain on rising volume. It tapped the simple 50 day MVA on the high (77) and faded some. Money flow is still shooting higher and we are looking for BRL to break higher over the simple 50 day for the entry point.
Volume: 1.213M Avg Volume: 720.181K
BUY POINT: $77.04 Volume=1.1M Target=$88.55 Stop=$75.35
POSITION: BRL EO - May $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 01/03/2004
DNA (Genentech--$96.02; -0.17; optionable): Biotechnology. Looking for the next potential date as did not announce on 1-14.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 10-5-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $172. Things were a bit wilder then, and now near $100 DNA is ready for another split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Working laterally along the 10 day MVA (95.68) on below average volume, showing very quiet action as the market corrects. This is very solid action and shows up in the relative strength. Just being patient and letting it jump higher on above average volume.
Volume: 1.466M Avg Volume: 2.118M
BUY POINT: New: $97.06 (orig. $95.44) Volume=3M Target=$102 Stop=$93.88
POSITION: DNA CS - Mar. $95c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dna.html
Play Date: 02/02/2004
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$50.9; +0.54; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Announced solid earnings 1-26. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 back in 1995 at $45.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving over 50 but volume has not been surging, actually dropping below average Thursday. If it had been stronger we would have entered as the week would have been solid trade all along. A nice 11 week base with accumulation at 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). The base formed at the 50 day MVA (47.46), another sign of institutional support. Money flow is solid.
Volume: 151.803K Avg Volume: 203.59K
BUY POINT: New: $51.12 (orig. $50.22) Volume=500K Target=$58 Stop=$48.42
POSITION: UID GJ - July $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idxx.html
Play Date: 01/17/2004
IRM (Iron Mountain--$41.44; +0.47; optionable): Document storage. Forecast to announce a split on 2-27-04 in conjunction with earnings. This date has not been confirmed, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 12-6-01 at a stock price of $45.58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-22-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized, but company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Will it ever make the move? IRM has been creeping along the 18 day MVA (41.14) the past four weeks on low volume, trying our patience as we wait for the resumption of the breakout. It broke out of a 9 month saucer base in early January and has been testing the move since. Excellent money flow is still working higher as the stock continues the test. Holding up well as the market sells, and we are waiting, patiently, almost with an iron will so to speak, for it to make the break higher on above average volume.
Volume: 172.3K Avg Volume: 280.363K
BUY POINT: $42.22 Volume=492K Target=$50.72 Stop=$41.25
POSITION: IRM GH - July $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/irm.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$32.65; +0.35; optionable): Did not announce a split January 24 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting at 1:30 p.m. CT. Still a good pattern and we are looking to enter and be ready for the next possible date.
BACKGROUND: SONC last announced a 3:2 split 1-17-02 at its annual shareholder meeting with a stock price of $36.30. A frequent splitter announce roughly every 2 years.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Very similar to IRM, SONC is working laterally over support at 32 (50 day MVA is at 31.67) on low, below average volume. Money flow continues to move up as the stock moves laterally. Looking for the stock to follow that money flow higher.
Volume: 245.415K Avg Volume: 295.5K
BUY POINT: $34.28 Volume=562K Target=$41 Stop=$32.68
POSITION: ZSQ FF - June $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 01/29/2004
CALM (Cal-Maine Foods--$36.53; -0.32; no options): Atkins diet foods. Splits 2:1 on a date to be determined.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/calm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (35.44) on low volume as CALM works through its 6 week base showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation. Just waiting for the next break higher.
Volume: 252.576K Avg Volume: 566.818K
BUY POINT: New: $36.88 (orig. $35.65) Volume=650K Target=$42.75 Stop=$33.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/calm.html
Play Date: 01/29/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$28.67; +0.09; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit. Splits 2:1 on 2-9-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MSCC has made a full test of the breakout coming back to 28 the past two session as the market sold. It held Thursday on strong volume with a nice tight doji. Looking for it to turn back up on continued strong volume.
Volume: 714.423K Avg Volume: 395.363K
BUY POINT: $30.88 Volume=700K Target=$35.55 Stop=$29.88
POSITION: QMS FF - June $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
Play Date: 01/29/2004
NFLX (Netflix--$73.16; +3.51; optionable): DVD mail order rentals. Splits 2:1 on 2-12-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NFLX started up off the 18 day MVA (69.56) Thursday on stronger, average volume. Looks ready for a new entry point here as it starts up off support on rising volume. Money flow is starting to turn back up and is rising ahead of the price. Looking for NFLX to follow it.
Volume: 2.375M Avg Volume: 2.272M
BUY POINT: New: $73.62 (orig. $72.78) Volume=5M Target=$80 Stop=$69.88
POSITION: QNQ CN - Mar. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nflx.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/24/2004
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$41.14; +0.36; optionable): Ranch and farm supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. TSCO has come back a bit further than we wanted in the 3 month base. Looks as if it is going to form a right shoulder to what is turning into a reverse head and shoulders pattern. Looking at aggressive positions if volume can jump higher and then more on a further breakout.
Volume: 373.409K Avg Volume: 446.636K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $42.05 Breakout: $45.22 Volume=719K Target=$55 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: QTF GI - July $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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