|
|
us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Tuesday: OTEX; PWAV; TIVO; ULTI; VRNT
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 02/10/2004
FIC (Fair Isaac & Co.--$61.64; -0.21; optionable): Splits 3:2 on March 11
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FIC has just started to form the handle of a 13 week cup with handle base sporting strong 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That accumulation shows us that money ahs been moving into the stock during the base, not leaving it. Volume has backed off to well below average as it has started a flat, tight, lateral move. A big winner in 2003, it needed a breather, and this base has given it just that. It may take a few more days to form the handle, but we are going to be ready for a high volume break to the upside.
Volume: 333.6K Avg Volume: 682.409K
BUY POINT: $62.22 Volume=1M Target=$71.55 Stop=$59.88
POSITION: FIC GL - July $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fic.html
New Post-Split
Play Date: 02/10/2004
TASR (Taser--$129.85; +5.35; no options): Stun guns. Splits 3:1 on 2-11-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tasr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. TASR has been on a tear, but without options the $100+ price is a bit much to buy significantly into. It splits on Wednesday 3:1, and that should knock the price down to a level more can get into. It has moved laterally for two weeks, consolidating its last run higher from early January. Now this lateral move is much looser than the December consolidation where the prices were in a very narrow range. It has been a long run and it will need a rest, but we have a feeling when it splits down there will be a rush to pick up shares. We will look for a quick move, and when it runs out of gas take some gain and wait for it to take a rest. Then we will move in again.
Volume: 982.863K Avg Volume: 797.681K
BUY POINT: $44.25 Volume=1M Target=$53 Stop=$41.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tasr.html
Leader Plays: May not be ready for a split but can make us good money and some can grow into split candidates.
Play Date: 02/10/2004
SPAB (Spacehab--$3.25; +0.10; no options): Space habitats
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spab.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Another stock that blasted out of its base in January, rallied higher, and is now consolidating the move but refusing to give up the gains. Volume shot higher as SPAB gapped out of its base in January; it has backed off to a crawl the last two weeks, very good action for an lateral move. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out on the move as well, helping verify the price breakout. Volume was starting back up Tuesday as it jumped of the 18 day MVA (3.05). That tells us to get ready for the next move higher.
Volume: 193.144K Avg Volume: 300.59K
BUY POINT: $3.48 Volume=451K Target=$4.35 Stop=$3.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spab.html
Play Date: 02/10/2004
TELK (Telik--$25.71; +0.73; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/telk.html
STATUS: Flat. TELK broke out of a 3.5 month reverse head and shoulders in early January, rant to 26, and then formed the current 4 week lateral consolidation. Accumulation in the base was a solid 5 to 2. Tuesday volume exploded higher as TELK ran up toward the top of the current pattern. Money flow is shooting higher and relative strength is right at the next breakout point. Looking for a strong volume breakout to enter.
Volume: 1.115M Avg Volume: 485.772K
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=729K Target=$31.55 Stop=$24.48
POSITION: ZUL GE - July $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/telk.html
Continuing Leader Plays
Play Date: 01/21/2004
DVA (Davita--$40.35; -0.33; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. DVA broke out from an ascending triangle to start the month and then has pulled back on a low volume test, holding the breakout and the 18 day MVA (40.02). It showed a doji at that level, an indication on a pullback that it is ready to start back up and continue the move.
Volume: 235.7K Avg Volume: 315.5K
BUY POINT: New: $40.85 (orig. $40.12) Volume=504K Target=$46 Stop=$39.81
POSITION: DVA GH - July $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 01/31/2004
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$27.36; +1.18; optionable): Networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Was holding up very well but announced it was buying NSCN in a stock deal. That gapped it lower Monday but it was rebounding Tuesday on continued strong trade. This looks like a chance to pick it up a bit lower, and we are looking at starting a position on a move through the 10 day MVA (27.84) on volume, and then look at adding to it when it breaks out of the flat consolidation it was forming before the NSCN deal was announced.
Volume: 55.031M Avg Volume: 12.283M
BUY POINT: $28.48 Volume=15M Target=$35.45 Stop=$27.64
POSITION: JUX GF - July $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jnpr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: No split announced with 2-2-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting, but it just keeps on moving up for us.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Forecast 1-28-04. No split but great move and setting up again.
BRL: No split 2-5, but super earnings gapped it higher and setting up again.
DE: Forecast 2-14-04. Continues to struggle below the 50 day.
DNA: Forecast 1-14-04. No split announced but we want to stay in this one as it gives opportunities, and one is developing now.
ELAB: Forecast 2-19-04
IDXX: Researching next date, but making a super move for us in the interim.
IRM: Forecast 2-27-04
LXK: No split announced 1-26-04. Nice surge and now testing it with a low volume, lateral move.
MBG: Researching new date.
MBT: Researching date. Big break higher Monday and gave much back today but on lower trade.
NMGA: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close.
NSIT: No split announced on 2-5-04 after the close. Gapped down Tuesday but a great recovery.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04. Set to go tomorrow.
SHFL: Forecast 2-19-04 with earnings.
SONC: No split with 1-24 shareholder meeting. Finally starting the move but no volume.
STRA: Forecast 2-14-04 during the market.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Forecast 2-19 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04. Set for tomorrow, ready to move higher.
XTO: Forecast 2-18-04 in conjunction with earnings. Breaking back over the 50 day MVA on volume.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/17/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$92.88; +0.43; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. No split announced with earnings on 1-28-04 but continues to rally and we continue to position ourselves to take advantage of the moves.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split around 1-22-00 at a stock price of $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Testing 10 day MVA. A very nice test of the solid breakout in early January that ran up to 95 on excellent volume. Has eased back to the 10 day MVA (92.25) on mostly lower volume. It has held the 10 day, and volume started higher Tuesday, moving back to average. Looks as if it is preparing for the next leg higher.
Volume: 397.8K Avg Volume: 358.454K
BUY POINT: New: $93.65 (orig. $80.93) Volume=500K Target=New positions: $100 (orig. $92.95) Stop=$91.92
POSITION: BCR GS - July $95c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 02/03/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$79.96; +0.85; optionable): Drugs. No split 2-5, but a big gap higher.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3 for 2 on March 18, 2003 at a price of $75.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. BRL blasted higher Friday on earnings new and has moved laterally the past two sessions on lower, below average volume, consolidating the move. It may need another couple of days to consolidate, but holding the gains, a sign of strength.
Volume: 446.4K Avg Volume: 739.954K
BUY POINT: New: $80.62 (orig. $78.38) Volume=1.1M Target=$89.55 Stop=$76.62
POSITION: BRL EO - May $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 01/06/2004
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$85.03; +0.67; optionable): Medical labs. No announcement with earnings on 1-27-04. Researching next date, but we want to be in on a continued breakout.
BACKGROUND: Last split June 2001 at a price of $123.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice lateral move on lower and lower volume, holding over the 10 day MVA (83.67). This is one of our continuing winners, and we are looking to add to positions (a good place for new ones as well) on the break higher out of this range on a resumption of above average volume.
Volume: 459K Avg Volume: 638.409K
BUY POINT: New: $85.88 (orig. $73.88) Volume=1.2M Target=New positions: $96 (orig. positions: $84.85) Stop=$82.48
POSITION: DGX EQ - May $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Play Date: 01/03/2004
DNA (Genentech--$97.47; +0.92; optionable): Biotechnology. Looking for the next potential date as did not announce on 1-14.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 10-5-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $172. Things were a bit wilder then, and now near $100 DNA is ready for another split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Got a bit wilder Tuesday, gapping down and testing the 18 day MVA (95.43) before rallying back on a nice volume surge, though still below average. Getting ready for the move, and just need to see strong above average volume on the move through the buy point.
Volume: 1.739M Avg Volume: 2.062M
BUY POINT: New: $97.68 (orig. $95.44) Volume=3M Target=$102 Stop=$93.88
POSITION: DNA CS - Mar. $95c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dna.html
Play Date: 02/07/2004
LM (Legg Mason--$88.86; +0.22; optionable): Investment brokerage. Still researching the next date but a nice pattern.
BACKGROUND: Last split (2:1) in September 1998 at $64. This is the first time it has cleared that level since that time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (88.26) on below average volume. LM broke out from its 11 week cup base three weeks back and has held its gains as the market started to correct. That is a very good signal of support as it refuses to sell off. Looking for it to continue the breakout move with a surge on above average volume off of the 10 day. That is when we move in.
Volume: 245.8K Avg Volume: 508.681K
BUY POINT: $90.32 Volume=550K Target=$100 Stop=$88
POSITION: LM QR - May $90c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
Play Date: 01/24/2004
NMGA (Neiman Marcus Group--$57.49; -0.03; optionable): High end department stores. Forecast to announce a split 3-3-04 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Based on our research NMGA has never announced a split. It is trading at an all-time high, however, and in a range where retailers frequently announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmga.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice break higher last week and easing back on lower volume this week, trading in a nice, narrow range. Excellent money flow and solid accumulation. Looking for another break higher for adding to or entering new positions.
Volume: 117K Avg Volume: 163.954K
BUY POINT: New: 58.22 (orig. $55.39) Volume=254K Target=$63.75 Stop=$53.48
POSITION: NMG GK - July $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nmga.html
Play Date: 02/07/2004
OSI (Outback Steakhouse--$44.67; +0.42; optionable): Steak restaurants, corny commercials. Forecast February 12 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in November 1991 at approximately $26. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Volume jumped Monday as OSI ran in place. It started up Tuesday, but volume backed off. OSI has corrected back into a cup base after the breakout from four month base in late October that saw OSI run up to 47.50. The current base is 8 weeks, and OSI just came off a 50 day MVA test (43.41). Looking for an above average volume break past the recent highs to start a position ahead of the forecast date.
Volume: 193.9K Avg Volume: 519.954K
BUY POINT: $45.12 Volume=650K Target=$51 Stop=$41.96
POSITION: OSI HI - Aug. $45c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osi.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
VAR (Varian Medical Systems--$81.7; -0.43; optionable): Medical Equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Testing the move. VAR has surged well for us, the last leg on a nice breakout in early January for a $15 run. It has come back to test the 18 and 10 day MVA (80.07, 81.90) on lower volume the past two sessions. Money flow is excellent even on the pullback. Looking for another break higher on volume to add to positions or enter new positions.
Volume: 540.6K Avg Volume: 511.818K
BUY POINT: New: $83.22 (orig. $64.50) Volume=1.1M Target=New positions: $100 (orig. positions: $74.25) Stop=$79.55
POSITION: VAR HQ - $80c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/var.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 01/29/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$29.88; +0.74; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Splits 2:1 on 2-23-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. After surging in late January, MSCC has fallen right back, testing the break higher and holding more or less at the 18 day MVA (29.27). Tuesday volume moved back up to average as the stock moved off the 18 day and back up to near resistance at 30. Money flow has started to turn back up the past two days, and we think that is a precursor to a move back up in the breakout by MSCC.
Volume: 455.803K Avg Volume: 400.954K
BUY POINT: $30.88 Volume=700K Target=$35.55 Stop=$29.88
POSITION: QMS FF - June $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/24/2004
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$42.28; -0.25; optionable): Farm and ranch supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TSCO moved up off the 50 day MVA (40.82) this week after falling back to test that level. A very solid pattern forming on the 50 day, we are looking for this long term winner to make the break higher from here. It knocked the cover off earnings in January, and we are looking for a new chance to get in on this stock.
Volume: 386.284K Avg Volume: 444.045K
BUY POINT: $45.22 Volume=719K Target=$55 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: QTF GI - July $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
End part 2 of 3
|
us stock market
top stock pick
|
