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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Wednesday: CHT; DVA; IRM; LM; MSCC; SLAB; SYMC; TASR; VAR; AVID; TSCO
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
Play Date: 02/11/2004
MVIS (Microvision--$8.78; +0.30; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvis.html
STATUS: Cup. MVIS is forming the right side of its 19 week base that formed roughly over the 50 day MVA (7.98). Accumulation in the base is an excellent 8 to 3 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), setting a good foundation for the move as money has been moving into the stock as it consolidates. Volume has started higher Monday and Wednesday. Looking for a stronger breakaway move.
Volume: 193K Avg Volume: 132.59K
BUY POINT: $8.88 Volume=200K Target=$10.72 Stop=$8.26
POSITION: QMV EU - May $7.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mvis.html
Play Date: 02/11/2004
ADIC (Advanced Digital Info--$17.41; +0.24; optionable): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adic.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. ADIC broke out in late January on solid trade but when the market started to correct, it faded back on lower volume and held the 50 day MVA (16.49). Excellent money flow and a solid 5 to 3 accumulation setting the stage for a good 50 day MVA rebound.
Volume: 428.074K Avg Volume: 899.818K
BUY POINT: $18.12 Volume=1.2M Target=$21.88 Stop=$17.22
POSITION: QXG FW - June $17.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adic.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/24/2004
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$43.73; +1.45; optionable): Farm and ranch supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting to surge off of the 50 day MVA test, on rising, average volume. Money flow is starting to lead back up. TSCO has the earnings and the strength. About to give us another good entry. Aggressive positions can be taken on another solid volume move and then again on the breakout.
Volume: 504.57K Avg Volume: 444.909K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $44.12; Breakout: $45.22 Volume=719K Target=$55 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: QTF GI - July $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABTL 01/31 Rv H&S 13.1 -0.24 12.83 15.45 455K 775K 12.44
Current.
AGN 01/13 Cup hdl 88 +0.1 84.46 94 617K 1.2M 84.58
Current.
ANPI 01/22 Dbl btm 28.82 -0.09 26.06 29.89 403K 528K 26.62
Current.
APH 02/05 Test 50 66.98 -0.12 65.25 72 117K 200K 63.68
APOL 01/24 Test 18 78.76 +1.58 73.25 82 792K 3M 73.88
APOL 12/01 DB hdl 78.76 +1.58 70.72 82 792K 2.9M 73.88
Current.
APOL 11/22 DB hdl 78.76 +1.58 66.54 82 792K 2.9M 73.88
Current.
ASKJ 01/04 Test 50 22.52 -0.31 20.88 24.95 1.1M 3.7M 21.92
Current.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 93.54 +0.66 80.93 92.95 297K 500K 91.92
Current.
BRL 02/03 Rv H&S 80.05 +0.09 78.38 89.55 216K 1.1M 76.62
BRNC 02/05 A Wedge 3.41 -0.06 3.55 4.65 194K 112K 3.24
Current.
CALM 01/29 Cup hdl 35.95 +0.85 36.62 43.75 322K 650K 34.98
Current.
CENT 01/22 Test BO 34.35 +0.55 33.05 39 100K 200K 32.84
Current.
CHT 01/22 Cup hdl 16.45 +0.3 15.75 18.92 650K 1.1M 15.55
Current.
DGX 01/06 Test BO 85.23 +0.2 73.88 84.85 804K 1.2M 82.48
Current.
DNA 01/03 Test BO 97.95 +0.48 95.44 102 2.9M 3M 94.88
Current.
DVA 01/21 A Wedge 42.6 +2.25 40.12 46 895K 504K 39.81
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 69.13 +1.75 53.78 60 6.6M 9M 65.96
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 69.13 +1.75 40.04 46 6.6M 8M 65.96
Current.
ELAB 01/22 BO 59.54 +1.04 59.98 68 284K 499K 57.55
Current.
ETN 01/31 Test 18 119.8 +1.26 116.88 123.5 784K 900K 116.58
FIC 02/10 Cup hdl 62 +0.36 62.22 71.55 529K 1M 59.88
Buy Not Issued.
FOSL 01/20 DB hdl 28.79 -0.3 29.92 35 217K 300K 28.72
GPRO 11/12 Cup hdl 37.65 +0.01 30.85 36.95 406K 1.1M 36.32
Current.
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 53 +0.84 50.22 58 181K 500K 49.78
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 38.05 +0.89 29.05 34.55 1.5M 4.7M 36.62
Current.
IRM 01/17 Test BO 43.64 +1.18 43.67 52.12 274K 492K 41.92
Current.
JADE 02/03 DB hdl 5 +0.05 5.68 7.12 394K 242K 5.28
Buy Not Hit.
JNPR 01/31 Test BO 26.95 -0.41 28.48 35.45 22M 15M 27.64
Buy Not Hit.
LEA 01/10 Cup hdl 65.77 +0.87 65.26 76.55 609K 680K 63.98
Buy Not Issued.
LM 02/07 FlyPlat 92.79 +3.93 92.24 102 1.2M 550K 88.68
Current.
LXK 12/30 Rv H&S 85.01 -0.13 85.95 94 1M 2M 82.12
Buy Not Issued.
MBG 11/18 Cup hdl 49.34 +0.48 44.3 53 328K 1.8M 46.88
Current.
MBT 01/03 Cup 103.82 +2.8 88.39 99.95 142K 412K 94.65
Current.
MSCC 01/29 Test BO 31.23 +1.35 30.95 35.68 715K 700K 29.38
Current.
NFLX 01/29 Test 18 71.96 -0.84 72.78 80 4.1M 5M 72.44
Current.
NMGA 01/24 A Wedge 57.8 +0.31 55.39 63.75 200K 254K 53.48
NSIT 02/03 Test 50 22.46 +0.31 22 26 879K 730K 21.92
Current.
NYB 02/07 Test BO 43.4 +1.04 42.15 46.15 965K 1.5M 40.32
Buy Not Issued.
OLGC 02/05 Rv H&S 8.7 +0.05 8.46 10.15 139K 500K 7.82
Current.
OSI 02/07 Test 50 44.89 +0.22 45.12 51 290K 650K 41.96
Buy Not Hit.
OTEX 01/05 Flat 30.53 +0.41 21.33 25.48 439K 650K 26.38
Current.
PWAV 02/07 Cup hdl 10.9 -0.05 10.48 12.72 6.9M 5M 9.78
Current.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 37.37 +0.45 30.35 36.75 2M 6M 35.58
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 37.37 +0.45 26.3 30.94 2M 6M 35.58
Current.
SEAC 01/24 Test BO 20.26 0 19.77 23.58 496K 600K 19.22
Current.
SLAB 01/31 Cup hdl 58.69 +2.11 51.12 58 2.3M 1.9M 48.76
Target Hit.
SNUS 01/13 Test BO 7.36 +0.11 7.69 9.22 133K 175K 7.15
Current.
SONC 01/10 Test BO 34.14 +0.06 33.68 41 114K 562K 32.62
Buy Not Issued.
SPAB 02/10 A Wedge 3.24 -0.01 3.48 4.35 35K 451K 3.19
Buy Not Hit.
SPIL 01/10 Cup hdl 5.86 -0.02 5.84 7.35 1.3M 1.9M 5.78
Current.
SPPI 01/21 Rv H&S 9.37 -0.03 10.02 12.12 68K 281K 9.32
Current.
STJ 01/13 Cup hdl 75.03 -0.27 64.68 75 1.7M 2.2M 72.44
Current.
STRA 01/31 Test 18 116.81 -1.19 113.55 125 177K 125K 111.98
Buy Not Issued.
SYK 12/29 A Wedge 90.9 +1.58 88.75 100 427K 745K 88.38
Current.
SYMC 02/05 FlyPlat 41.77 +1.39 40.94 46.88 3.8M 6M 39.21
Current.
TASR 02/10 Test BO 49.7 +6.42 45.88 54.55 7.9M 1M 42.96
Current. Gave us the post-split bounce as anticipated on excellent
trade as buyers ready to move in at the lower price
did just that.
TELK 02/10 FlyPlat 25.95 +0.24 26.32 31.55 520K 729K 24.48
Buy Not Issued.
TIVO 01/31 Cup 12.16 +0.07 11.16 13.35 3.2M 4.5M 10.88
Current.
TOL 01/27 Cup hdl 40.7 +0.92 42.62 51 1.2M 1.2M 40.42
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 01/24 Cup 43.73 +1.45 45.22 55 501K 719K 42.05
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 43.73 +1.45 28.06 31.44 501K 494K 39.88
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 43.73 +1.45 26.62 30 501K 500K 39.88
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 43.73 +1.45 23.42 27.62 501K 603K 39.88
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43.73 +1.45 21.88 26 501K 603K 39.88
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 43.73 +1.45 19.3 22.19 501K 577K 39.88
Current.
ULTI 02/09 Cup hdl 11.38 -0.14 11.38 13.62 163K 120K 10.48
Current.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 83.42 +1.17 71.12 84 118K 315K 78.98
Current.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 83.42 +1.17 68.95 82 118K 315K 78.98
Current.
VANS 02/02 DB hdl 13 0 13.06 15.62 56K 250K 12.15
Buy Not Issued.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 84.65 +2.95 64.5 74.25 686K 1.1M 79.55
Current.
VIP 01/03 Test BO 73 +1.02 73.34 85 583K 615K 74.78
Current.
VRNT 02/02 Cup hdl 26.85 +0.19 26.48 31.78 89K 250K 25.38
Current.
VTIV 01/03 A Wedge 11.25 -0.3 9.69 11.68 132K 238K 10.69
Current.
WGO 01/17 Flat 73.36 +0.88 73.38 79 95K 325K 72.21
Current.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 29.41 -0.33 25.83 31.22 236K 650K 28.05
Current.
WWCA 01/29 Test BO 26.35 +0.62 23.06 27.72 2.4M 2M 22.37
Current.
ZGEN 02/07 DB hdl 18.15 -0.09 18.48 22.22 289K 200K 17.82
Buy Not Hit.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 02/04 Put 572.39 +6.04 558 546 0 1.3M 561.25
Current. Rallied on stronger volume. Will let it test the resistance at 573.44 and test back. We will see if it double tops or just fades & we can exit if necessary.
AVID 02/05 Put 42.25 -0.66 44.45 40.35 942K 600K 45.25
Buy Not Hit.
CTX 02/09 Put 100.7 +3.62 97.5 91.94 2.2M 1.5M 99.98
Current.
HUM 02/04 Put 21.68 -0.33 21.65 20 2.4M 1.9M 22.26
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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