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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Friday: FMTI; SNUS
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split
Play Date: 02/14/2004
NATI (National Instruments--$48.55; -0.07; optionable): Computer peripherals. Splits 3:2 on 2-23-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. Strong moves off the 50 day MVA (46.96) have been a hallmark of this stock. It recently broke out from a 10 week cup base, surging over 50. It has made another 50 day MVA since, starting back up last week on some better volume. It tested the 18 day MVA (48.29) to end the week, showing a hammer doji at the 18 day. Looking for volume to kick in as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 121.475K Avg Volume: 179.409K
BUY POINT: $49.25 Volume=300K Target=$57 Stop=$48.12
POSITION: SJQ FJ - June $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nati.html
Leader Plays: May not be ready for a split but can make us good money and some can grow into split candidates.
Play Date: 02/14/2004
EAR (Hearx--$2.49; -0.04; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ear.html
STATUS: Cup. After surging out of a 3 month base in December, EAR has fallen back into another base, currently working on an 8 week pattern that has used the 50 day MVA (2.22) as support. Accumulation thus far in the base is an excellent 3 to 0 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume); very good before it even surges up to form the right side of the pattern. Money flow is excellent as well. Typically we wait for the pattern to complete, but it is very strong and we are looking for positions if volume surges on a move through the January high.
Volume: 152.5K Avg Volume: 400.681K
BUY POINT: $2.64 Volume=601K Target=$3.22 Stop=$2.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ear.html
Play Date: 02/14/2004
IDCC (Interdigital Communications--$25.93; +1.80; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idcc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged Friday as IDCC started the breakout from a 8.5 month base sporting excellent 9 to 3 accumulation. This is a bigger base than most have been forming; IDCC was taking its time to set up, but that is okay as it really wrings out the sellers. Looking to move in as it continues its breakout move on solid trade.
Volume: 2.147M Avg Volume: 623.5K
BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=935K Target=$31.88 Stop=$24.69
POSITION: DAQ FE - June $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idcc.html
Play Date: 02/14/2004
NUVO (Nuvelo--$4.77; +0.12; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuvo.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NUVO is testing the breakout from early February when it exploded higher on an upgrade. It announced earnings on February 5, but just continued the current pullback. It has come back to test the 18 day MVA (4.76) on mostly lower volume, and we are looking for this level to hold and for NUVO to resume the breakout.
Volume: 606.573K Avg Volume: 872.867K
BUY POINT: $5.06 Volume=1M Target=$6.12 Stop=$4.71
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nuvo.html
Play Date: 02/14/2004
PRFT (Perficient--$4.13; 0.00; no options): e-business solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After a strong, high volume breakout from a 3 month base in late January, PRFT is moving laterally in a flying plateau to consolidate the gains. It is a bullish pattern because the stock is holding its gains as opposed to selling off. Volume has backed off as it moves laterally, another indication that there are not many sellers during the base. Excellent accumulation at 4 to 1 and surging money flow is leading the way. Relative strength broke out with the price, another indication of strength as it shows the stock is outperforming most of the market.
Volume: 153.656K Avg Volume: 152.636K
BUY POINT: $4.38 Volume=229K Target=$5.48 Stop=$4.07
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prft.html
Continuing Leader Plays
Play Date: 02/05/2004
BRNC (Braun Consulting--$3.35; +0.05; no options): Internet software & services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brnc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BRNC surged in early February on strong trade but in the market choppiness it has pulled back to test the move, holding the 18 day MVA (3.24) on the intraday lows as it makes the test. Friday BRNCE showed a tight doji on the candlestick chart as it held the 18 day, and that can often signal a pullback is over. Looking for volume to jump back up as it moves up off the test.
Volume: 44.459K Avg Volume: 100.545K
BUY POINT: $3.55 Volume=112K Target=$4.65 Stop=$3.24
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brnc.html
Play Date: 01/13/2004
SNUS (Sonus Pharmaceutical--$7.72; +0.32; no options): Diagnostic drug substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snus.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved up further above average Friday as SNUS jumped off the 18 day MVA (7.27). Looks as if the test of the breakout from its 2.5 month cup with handle in late January is a success. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and it is still a buy on a further move.
Volume: 146.8K Avg Volume: 104.818K
BUY POINT: New: 7.78 (orig. $7.69) Volume=175K Target=$9.22 Stop=$7.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snus.html
Play Date: 02/10/2004
SPAB (Spacehab--$3.2; 0.00; no options): Space habitats
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spab.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Continues to prepare for the continued breakout, continuing its lateral move over the 18 day MVA (3.09) on low volume. Thursday volume jumped as it gapped lower but recovered to hold the tight range. Still looks super and we are just waiting for the higher volume move to continue the breakout.
Volume: 174.921K Avg Volume: 309.454K
BUY POINT: $3.48 Volume=451K Target=$4.35 Stop=$3.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spab.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/12/2004
RBK (Reebok--$37.59; -0.16; optionable): Athletic shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rbk.html
STATUS: Put. Continued its move lower on volume Friday and rebounded in the last part of the session. We toyed with entering the play even though it moved back over the buy point. In the last few minutes of trade it slipped lower again, but too late for us to act on it. We will look for a modest test higher Tuesday and when it fails we will move in. Or, if it starts to sell early we will step in then. Either way we think it is now ready. RBK made a double top with the December and January highs between 40 and 41. It has broken the 50 day MVA (38.75) and the attempt to retake that level has been weak. It ran up to the 10 day MVA (38.29) but then turned over Looking for it to continue lower here toward the 200 day MVA.
Volume: 882.7K Avg Volume: 555.318K
BUY POINT: New: $37.55 (orig. $37.62) Volume=700K Target=$35.62 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: RBK PU - Apr. $37.50p (-40 delta) or RBK PH - Apr. $40p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rbk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: No split announced with 2-2-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. Still moving up the 10 day MVA in a great play for us.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Forecast 1-28-04. No split announced. Nice lateral move.
BRL: Announced the split! A week after earnings but no complaints. Still setting up the next move.
DE: Forecast 2-17-04. Holding the 50 day MVA. Now we see if the split comes.
DNA: Forecast in April. No split announced in January, but looks ready to start higher again.
ELAB: Forecast 2-19-04
IDXX: Researching next date.
IRM: Forecast 2-27-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LXK: No split announced 1-26-04. Looks like a shakeout before the next break higher.
MBG: Researching new date.
MBT: Researching date. Working on next lateral move.
NMGA: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close.
NSIT: No split announced on 2-5-04 after the close. Still holding the 10 day MVA.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04. No split announcement bit solid earnings and moving higher.
SHFL: Forecast 2-19-04 with earnings.
SONC: No split with 1-24 shareholder meeting. Still working up the 10 day MVA, trying to clear the early January high..
STRA: No split announced with earnings on 2-12-04. Fell through the 18 day MVA.
TOL: Forecast 2-24-04 in conjunction with earnings or on 3-2-04 with a board meeting.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Forecast 2-19 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04. No split but great earnings and rallied on strong trade.
XTO: Forecast 2-18-04 in conjunction with earnings. Testing the move back over the 50 day MVA.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/14/2004
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$66.94; -0.86; optionable): Medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split February 19, 2004 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 6-13-2000 at a price of $53.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After a strong April to November rally PDCO needed a breather. It has taken one with the current 13 week base. Accumulation in the pattern is positive at 3 to 2, indicating that money continued to move in even as the stock sold back and formed the base. Looking for a high volume move to break it out of the pattern. May come before the earnings or may come with them and a split announcement.
Volume: 270.449K Avg Volume: 505.727K
BUY POINT: $69.12 Volume=759K Target=$79.48 Stop=$66.38
POSITION: DOU GN - July $70c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Play Date: 02/14/2004
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$66.39; -0.14; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 6-28-01 in conjunction with a board meeting at a price of $86.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Double bottom. TARO is working through a 10 week base that bottomed over the June and July tops. That is a good point for support, and is a good sign to see it hold. Accumulation is excellent at 3 to 0 already at this stage of the base. Thursday TARO shot higher on strong volume with no news. That is an indication that the earnings results to be released Tuesday could be good. We are going to move in as it makes the further break higher.
Volume: 223.761K Avg Volume: 279.318K
BUY POINT: $67.12 Volume=420K Target=$77 Stop=$63.68
POSITION: QTT GM - July $65c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/taro.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/17/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$94.82; +0.51; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. No split announced with earnings on 1-28-04 but continues to rally and we continue to position ourselves to take advantage of the moves.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split around 1-22-00 at a stock price of $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After an excellent 12 point move in January, BCR is moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (93.18) on mostly lower volume, consolidating the move. That lower volume shows there is very little selling of the stock even after this strong move. Good volume Thursday on a move higher shows us it may be ready for the move higher.
Volume: 299K Avg Volume: 362.636K
BUY POINT: New: $95.55 (orig. $80.93) Volume=500K Target=New positions: $100 (orig. $92.95) Stop=$91.92
POSITION: BCR GS - July $95c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 01/03/2004
DNA (Genentech--$98.25; +0.64; optionable): Biotechnology. Looking for the next potential date as did not announce on 1-14.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 10-5-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $172. Things were a bit wilder then, and now near $100 DNA is ready for another split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After two strong volume sessions Wednesday and Thursday DNA got a bit wilder Friday, gapping lower but then rallying back to recover and post a modest gain on lower volume. Still holding the lateral move that is testing its breakout. Strong money flow and relative strength holding up well as it moves laterall. Want to see volume back up as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 1.42M Avg Volume: 2.062M
BUY POINT: New: $98.45 (orig. $95.44) Volume=3M Target=$102 Stop=$93.88
POSITION: DNA CS - Mar. $95c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dna.html
Play Date: 12/30/2003
LXK (Lexmark Intl.--$83.76; -0.94; optionable): Printers. No split announced in January. Researching next date, but setting up nicely.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 2 for 1 split on 4-29-99 at a stock price of $110. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-30-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lxk.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After a 3 week lateral move over the 10 day MVA (84.23), Friday LXK dipped to the 18 day MVA on the intraday low (83.40). Volume remained below average as it made the test and rebounded some on the close. LXK is at an important crossroads. The low volume dip has the characteristics of a low volume shakeout that scares out the last sellers. It has to deliver, however, and give us the above average volume break higher for us to enter.
Volume: 840.5K Avg Volume: 985.136K
BUY POINT: $85.95 Volume=2M Target=$94 Stop=$82.12
POSITION: LXK DP - Apr. $80c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lxk.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 02/03/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$79.02; +0.13; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 3:2 on 3-16-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: BRL gave us the split announcement, a bit later than expected. It is still in a good pattern, however, moving laterally after the earnings news broke it higher. Friday it tapped the 10 day MVA on the intraday low (78.17) and rebounded. Looking for that high volume move over 80 to take new positions.
Volume: 369.5K Avg Volume: 739.09K
BUY POINT: New: 80.62 (orig. $78.38) Volume=1.1M Target=$89.55 Stop=$76.62
POSITION: BRL EO - May $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 01/29/2004
CALM (Cal-Maine Foods--$37.24; +1.69; no options): Eggs. Splits 2:1 on a date yet to be determined
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/calm.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. CALM is tightening up in its range, working up the 18 day MVA (35.42) and below a more or less constant top at 40. Friday volume jumped back up as the stock moved off the 18 day MVA. Looking for a high volume move to enter new positions.
Volume: 632.772K Avg Volume: 595.59K
BUY POINT: New: $38.65 (orig. $36.62) Volume=650K Target=$43.75 Stop=$35.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/calm.html
Play Date: 02/10/2004
FIC (Fair Isaac & Co.--$61.56; -0.1; optionable): Splits 3:2 on March 11
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The handle is forming up very nicely as FIC works laterally above the 10 day MVA (60.86), tapping at that level on the Friday low and rebounding nicely. This is what we were looking for as it continues in its 14 week cup with handle base sporting strong 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Now just looking for the high volume breakout.
Volume: 415.2K Avg Volume: 668.363K
BUY POINT: $62.22 Volume=1M Target=$71.55 Stop=$59.88
POSITION: FIC GL - July $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fic.html
Play Date: 01/29/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$30.7; -0.5; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Splits 2:1 on 2-23-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. After a solid volume move Wednesday, MSCC was volatile Friday, tapping all the way back to the 18 day MVA on the Friday low (29.87) and then rebounding as volume edged higher. Needs to hold here and continue the move. If it does we will add some more positions. Money flow is still strong.
Volume: 446.064K Avg Volume: 426.704K
BUY POINT: New: $31.65 (orig. $30.95) Volume=700K Target=$35.68 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: QMS FF - June $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/24/2004
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$42.50; -0.50; optionable): Farm and ranch supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good volume move Wednesday but then faded back to the 10 day MVA (42.42) to end the week. Volume faded to well below average both Thursday and Friday, so there was no selling, just biding its time. Holding up well in its 13 week base, and we are looking for the breakout this week to get more positions in this great winner for us.
Volume: 210.3K Avg Volume: 458.991K
BUY POINT: New: $44.55 (orig. $45.22)Volume=719K Target=$55 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: QTF GI - July $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
End part 2 of 3
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