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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Tuesday: CALM; CHT; DVA; IDCC; JADE; MBT; SPAB; TELK; TOL; VIP
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits
New buy point on this one:
Play Date: 02/17/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$80.23; +1.21; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 3:2 on 3-16.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume edged higher Tuesday as BRL shows signs of preparing to make the breakout from its 10 week base. Volume has been below average on the handle as it has moved laterally over the 10 day MVA (78.47). Money flow is surging higher ahead of the price even as it moves laterally. Looking for a high volume breakout soon.
Volume: 565.8K Avg Volume: 730.772K
BUY POINT: $80.72 Volume=700K Target=$85.75 Stop=$78.45
POSITION: BRL EP - May $80c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 02/17/2004
MICC (Millicom Cellular--$86; +6.61; optionable): Foreign Telecom. Splits 4:1 on 2-20-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micc.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. MICC was high on our list of potential pre-announcements and we were going to put it on this week based on its pattern as finding out data regarding foreign companies is quite a bit harder. Well, Monday the board met and authorized a split and Tuesday the stock was jumping on strong volume. It is a quick split date, but it is showing great momentum. Looking at jumping on some options on a further move higher to capture some of the strong momentum.
Volume: 380.634K Avg Volume: 128K
BUY POINT: $86.48 Volume=192K Target=$95.25 Stop=$83
POSITION: CQD DQ - Apr. $85c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/micc.html
Play Date: 02/17/2004
RJF (Raymond James Finl.--$39.48; +1.22; optionable): Investment brokerage. Splits 3:2 on 3-25-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rjf.html
STATUS: Double bottom. RJF is coming off the second leg in a 15 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Tuesday it was up off a 50 day MVA (37.90) test, rallying on solid, above average volume. Financials have some momentum now and we are looking to capitalize on that momentum.
Volume: 215K Avg Volume: 202.727K
BUY POINT: $39.62 Volume=304K Target=$44.55 Stop=$37.95
POSITION: RJF EH - May $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rjf.html
Leader Plays: May not be ready for a split but can make us good money and some can grow into split candidates.
Play Date: 02/17/2004
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$32.83; +1.50; no options): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GLDN is a solid performer but needed to base out after a strong move in mid-2003. It is currently trying to make the breakout from a 25 week base that formed roughly over the 50 day MVA (29.55), a sign of support from big money. Accumulation in the base is strong at 7 to 3. Tuesday it was making the breakout move on a tremendous volume surge though it gave back almost $2 off the high. Looking for it to reload and make the move again on continued strong trade.
Volume: 512.398K Avg Volume: 69.454K
BUY POINT: $33.42 Volume=400K Target=$40 Stop=$30.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gldn.html
Play Date: 02/17/2004
OPSW (Opsware--$9.47; +1.06; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/opsw.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Tuesday OPSW was moving well on very strong trade, starting the breakout from a 20 week base sporting excellent 10 to 2 accumulation. Money flow is surging as the stock makes the breakout move. This move is taking it to an all-time high, a great place to enter out of a solid base as there is no overhead resistance.
Volume: 3.645M Avg Volume: 1.165M
BUY POINT: $9.68 Volume=2M Target=$11.65 Stop=$8.45
POSITION: UWA GB - July $10c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/opsw.html
Continuing Leader Plays
Play Date: 02/03/2004
JADE (LJ Intl.--$5.44; +0.46; no options): Jewelry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jade.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume is surging as JADE moves toward the breakout from its very nice 7.5 month base. Volume surged as it formed the right side of the pattern, faded as it formed the handle over the 18 day MVA (5.05), and then shot higher Tuesday as it started toward the breakout move. Excellent accumulation and money flow is surging ahead of price.
Volume: 616.359K Avg Volume: 174.09K
BUY POINT: $5.68 Volume=242K Target=$7.12 Stop=$5.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jade.html
Play Date: 02/14/2004
NUVO (Nuvelo--$5.04; +0.27; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuvo.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Started up off the 18 day MVA (4.79) Tuesday but volume was not moving with it just yet. NUVO is testing the breakout from early February when it exploded higher on an upgrade. It announced earnings on February 5, but just continued the current pullback. The 18 day MVA held as we expected, how we just want to see more volume.
Volume: 642.737K Avg Volume: 849.59K
BUY POINT: $5.06 Volume=1M Target=$6.12 Stop=$4.71
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nuvo.html
Play Date: 02/07/2004
PWAV (Powerwave Technologies--$10.58; +0.07; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwav.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PWAV jumped higher on excellent volume but immediately came back to test the move, holding the 10 day MVA (10.33) on the low before bouncing. A nice 22 week base, showing excellent money flow leading ahead of price. Looks as if it has made the test, and now we look for more volume on the move higher.
Volume: 2.581M Avg Volume: 3.805M
BUY POINT: New: $10.75 (orig. $10.48) Volume=5M Target=$12.72 Stop=$10.17
POSITION: VFQ EB - May $10c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pwav.html
Play Date: 01/13/2004
SNUS (Sonus Pharmaceutical--$7.84; +0.12; no options): Diagnostic drug substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snus.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Good volume bounce Friday on above average volume, but Tuesday volume backed off as SNUS made a lukewarm continuation of the move. Looking for more volume as it continues the move. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price.
Volume: 101.5K Avg Volume: 98.454K
BUY POINT: New: 7.92 (orig. $7.69) Volume=175K Target=$9.22 Stop=$7.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snus.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: No split announced with 2-2-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. Losing some momentum here but still solid.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Forecast 1-28-04. No split announced. Trying to make the break past the January high but losing momentum.
DE: Forecast 2-17-04. No split but great earnings and what a move.
DNA: Forecast in April. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA.
ELAB: Forecast 2-19-04
IDXX: Researching next date. Testing the 18 day MVA.
IRM: Forecast 2-27-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LXK: No split announced 1-26-04. Still making that lower volume shakeout.
MBG: Researching new date. Still working well over the 10 day MVA.
MBT: Researching date. Breaking higher on big trade as telecoms get excited by merger fever.
NMGA: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close.
NSIT: No split announced on 2-5-04 after the close. Looking better as it moves lateral.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04. No split announcement bit solid earnings. Nice gap higher on volume.
PDCO: Forecast 2-19-04.
SHFL: Forecast 2-26-04 with earnings.
SONC: No split with 1-24 shareholder meeting. Getting some volume as it moves off the 10 day MVA.
TARO: No split 2-17 before the open.
TOL: Forecast 2-24-04 in conjunction with earnings or on 3-2-04 with a board meeting. Nice volume move.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Forecast 2-19 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04. No split but great earnings and rallied on strong trade.
XTO: Forecast 2-18-04. Announced the split after the close Tuesday.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/22/2004
ELAB (Eon Labs--$60.26; +1.51; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that ELAB has split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/elab.html
STATUS: Test breakout. ELAB continues to work up the 10 day MVA (58.73) after clearing the December high at 55. Volume jumped lat week but then reversed the next session. It held the 10 day MVA, however, holding that level on below average volume. Volume edged higher Tuesday as it moved off the 10 day. Looking for stronger trade near average to step into this one.
Volume: 145.184K Avg Volume: 374.59K
BUY POINT: $59.98 Volume=499K Target=$68 Stop=$57.55
POSITION: ESQ DK - Apr. $55c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/elab.html
Play Date: 02/14/2004
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$68.65; +1.71; optionable): Medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split February 19, 2004 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 6-13-2000 at a price of $53.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. PDCO came back to test the 18 day MVA (66.78) late last week and then jumped off that support Tuesday on rising though still below average volume. Still working very well in its 13 week base showing 3 to 2 accumulation. Good action at that support and we are looking for a high volume move to break it out of the pattern. Again, it may come before the earnings or may come with them and a split announcement.
Volume: 342.593K Avg Volume: 502.818K
BUY POINT: $69.12 Volume=759K Target=$79.48 Stop=$66.38
POSITION: DOU GN - July $70c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Play Date: 01/27/2004
TOL (Toll Brothers--$42.52; +1.60; optionable): Home builder. Forecast to announce a split on 2-24-04 in conjunction with earnings or on 3-2-04 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed theses dates, but based upon our research these are the dates for the events.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-02 at a stock price of $25.60. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-20-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tol.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. TOL came off of the 50 day MVA (39.60) well, rising Tuesday on strong volume. A very nice 11 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA, another sign of support. Looking for another strong move on above average volume for new or additional positions.
Volume: 1.195M Avg Volume: 1.132M
BUY POINT: $42.71 Volume=1.2M Target=$51 Stop=$40.42
POSITION: TOL FH - June $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tol.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
VAR (Varian Medical Systems--$83.24; +0.14; optionable): Medical Equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for1 split on 11-19-01 at a stock price of $70.20. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. VAR continues to test the strong January move, holding at the 10 day MVA (82.80) on below average volume. Tuesday it held that level, showing a doji on the candlestick chart. A good low volume rest with money flow rallying higher ahead of the price as it pulls back. Getting ready to move and we want to be in on it.
Volume: 313.6K Avg Volume: 521.59K
BUY POINT: New: $84.55 (orig. $64.50) Volume=1.1M Target=New positions: $100 (orig. $74.25) Stop=$80.92
POSITION: VAR EQ - May $85c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/var.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 01/29/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$31.38; +0.68; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Splits 2:1 on 2-23-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Still working laterally below 32 on low volume after bouncing off the 18 day MVA (29.94) last week. It has lost a little momentum here, and we want to see it break over 31.92 on strong trade. Money flow remains strong and moving up ahead of price.
Volume: 388.408K Avg Volume: 413.954K
BUY POINT: New: $31.92 (orig. $30.95) Volume=700K Target=$35.68 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: QMS FF - June $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
Play Date: 02/14/2004
NATI (National Instruments--$49.23; +0.68; optionable): Computer peripherals. Splits 3:2 on 2-23-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. NATI started up off the 18 day MVA (48.38) and the Friday hammer doji. Volume was stronger but still below average. Want to see an above average volume surge. NATI has shown a series of strong moves off the 50 day MVA (47.05) on this run. It recently broke out from a 10 week cup base, surging over 50. It has made another 50 day MVA test since, starting back up last week on some better volume.
Volume: 141.448K Avg Volume: 176.636K
BUY POINT: New: $49.55 (orig. $49.25 Volume=300K Target=$57 Stop=$48.12
POSITION: SJQ FJ - June $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nati.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/24/2004
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$43; +0.5; optionable): Farm and ranch supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still looks solid, holding over the 18 day MVA (42.17) Tuesday on rising though still below average volume. The pattern is turning into a reverse head and shoulders, but regardless of what you call it, it is solid. The stock is solid as well, raising its guidance Tuesday. Looking for another break higher on strong trade.
Volume: 335.281K Avg Volume: 439.318K
BUY POINT: New: $44.55 (orig. $45.22)Volume=719K Target=$55 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: QTF GI - July $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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