|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Thursday: MBG; MVIS; AVID; HUM
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits
Play Date: 02/19/2004
XTO (XTO Energy--$27.87; -0.08; optionable): Oil and gas. Splits 5:4 on 3-18-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. XTO posted a nice breakout and rally from October to early January and has since backed off to form the current 8 week base. It more or less held the 50 day MVA (27.11) at the bottom of the base and then rallied back to the pre-correction high at 29. This week it has faded back toward the 10 day MVA (27.75) on very low volume. Looking for this test to hold and then see the stock break higher from the pattern. That is when we move in.
Volume: 697.6K Avg Volume: 1.086M
BUY POINT: $28.22 Volume=1.2M Target=$31.75 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: XTO EE - May $25c (93 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 02/19/2004
ANPI (Angiotech Pharmaceutical--$27.14; 0.00; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anpi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ANPI has made two attempts to clear 29, but has faded. It has not sold hard, however, just easing back as the market sold to hold the 18 day MVA (27.07). Being stingy with its gains and holding up well even as the market sells. Money flow is holding up also, and after this test we are looking for ANPI to resume its move on solid trade.
Volume: 473.243K Avg Volume: 678.363K
BUY POINT: $27.88 Volume=705K Target=$32 Stop=$26.93
POSITION: AUJ FY - June $27.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anpi.html
Play Date: 02/19/2004
TEK (Tektronix--$33.33; -0.31; optionable): Test and measurement equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TEK broke from a short 7 week flat base 9 sessions back on strong trade. When the market waffled it gave back some of the gain, but on lower volume and with very small losses. It has come back to the 10 day MVA (33.32) and has held there the past two sessions. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) in the prior base and money flow is moving up as the stock moves laterally. Looking for a strong volume move off of this level to continue the breakout and move into the stock.
Volume: 485.4K Avg Volume: 513.818K
BUY POINT: $34.06 Volume=700K Target=$38.12 Stop=$32.68
POSITION: TEK GG - July $35c (37 delta) or TEK GF - July $30c (85 delta) &/of Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tek.html
Leader Plays: May not be ready for a split but can make us good money and some can grow into split candidates.
Play Date: 02/19/2004
INTL (Inter-Tel--$31.65; -0.57; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. INTL broke out of a 22 week reverse head and shoulders on Wednesday on a big volume spike. Thursday it eased back some on much lower volume. Accumulation in the base is solid at 7 to 4; this is part of a much larger 18 month reverse head and shoulders. We anticipate it will come back a bit more to test the breakout, falling back toward 31. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. Expecting a bit more pullback and then it will be ready to move again.
Volume: 494.669K Avg Volume: 305.545K
BUY POINT: Test 31, then $31.12 on the way back up. Volume=458K Target=$35.88 Stop=$29.05
POSITION: TPQ GF - July $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/intl.html
Play Date: 02/19/2004
WRLS (Telular--$15.2; +1.03; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wrls.html
STATUS: Breakout test. WRLS surged out of a 8 month cup with handle base in early January and raced to 15. It is now consolidating that move, but giving up very little ground as it does. Indeed, it is moving laterally below 15.50, making higher and higher lows over the 18 day MVA (13.49). Accumulation in the long base was outstanding at 12 to 1. Thursday WRLS started up again on a tremendous volume surge. It has strong money flow leading the way higher and relative strength is making the next breakout. Looking to move in on a continuation of this move.
Volume: 488.809K Avg Volume: 188.136K
BUY POINT: $15.55 Volume=300K Target=$18.66 Stop=$14.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wrls.html
Continuing Leader Plays
Play Date: 01/31/2004
ABTL (Autobytel--$12.75; -0.13; optionable): Internet auto buying service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abtl.html
STATUS: Testing breakout. ABTL jumped higher early in the month on solid trade but the past week has eased back on lower, below average volume to test the move. It is holding the 18 day MVA (12.40) as it pulls back. No real selling as it comes back given the light trade. Money flow continues to rise ahead of price as ABTL shows a doji at the 10 day. Looking for it to make a high volume move for new or additional positions.
Volume: 388.798K Avg Volume: 520.545K
BUY POINT: New: $13.06 (orig. $12.83) Volume=775K Target=$15.45 Stop=$12.44
POSITION: BCU EV - May $12.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/abtl.html
Play Date: 02/17/2004
OPSW (Opsware--$8.89; -0.31; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/opsw.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Tried the breakout move Tuesday but has fallen back with the market Wednesday and Thursday. Volume has edged back but still strong. Still holding the 20 week base sporting excellent 10 to 2 accumulation. Money flow is still strong though it eased back with the stock the past two sessions. Still holding the 10 day MVA (8.78), and waiting for OPSW to complete this test and then rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 1.459M Avg Volume: 1.229M
BUY POINT: $9.68 Volume=2M Target=$11.65 Stop=$8.45
POSITION: UWA GB - July $10c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/opsw.html
Play Date: 02/10/2004
SPAB (Spacehab--$3.42; -0.17; no options): Space habitats
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spab.html
STATUS: Test breakout. SPAB made a big breakout from a 6 week flying plateau three sessions back. It gapped higher Wednesday but sold back. It tapped the 18 day MVA (3.23) on the Thursday low but managed to rebound to cut most of its losses. Volume on the two selling sessions was much lower and well below average. A good test as the market sold, and now we are looking for it to resume the breakout move.
Volume: 173.901K Avg Volume: 322.227K
BUY POINT: New: $3.55 (orig. $3.49) Volume=451K Target=$4.35 Stop=$3.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spab.html
Play Date: 01/29/2004
WWCA (Western Wireless--$25.33; -0.58; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Breakout test. WWCA is making the second test of the breakout from its 18 week cup base, coming back to the 10 day MVA (25.39) on the Thursday close. Volume has eased way off as it makes the test, showing very little selling. Strong money flow continues to support the move. Looking for a rebound from this level for new positions.
Volume: 1.686M Avg Volume: 1.579M
BUY POINT: New: $25.75 (orig. $23.06) Volume=2M Target=$27.72 Stop=$24.86
POSITION: WRQ EX - May $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wwca.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/12/2004
RBK (Reebok--$38.05; -0.26; optionable): Sports shoes and apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rbk.html
STATUS: Put. RBK continued to work below the 10 day MVA (38.21). Thursday it jumped up to test the 50 day MVA on the intraday high (38.92) but then collapsed back down. Volume was lower but still above average. Double topped in December and January. Looking for it to fail here on stronger volume to enter the downside position.
Volume: 675.5K Avg Volume: 558.863K
BUY POINT: $37.62 Volume=700K Target=$35.62 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: RBK PU - Apr. $37.50p (-40 delta) or RBK PH - Apr. $40p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rbk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: No split announced with 2-2-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. Making a nice test.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Forecast 1-28-04. No split announced. Still trying to make the break past the January high.
DE: Forecast 2-17-04. No split but great earnings and what a move.
DNA: Forecast in April.
ELAB: Forecast 2-19-04. No split announcement, pulling back to the 18 day MVA.
IDXX: Researching next date. Testing the 18 day MVA.
IRM: Forecast 2-27-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LXK: No split announced 1-26-04. Still making that lower volume shakeout.
MBG: Researching new date. Starting back up on volume.
MBT: Researching date. Still moving well up the 10 day MVA.
NMGA: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close.
NSIT: No split announced on 2-5-04 after the close. Nice 18 day MVA test.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04. No split announcement but solid earnings.
PDCO: Forecast 2-19-04. No split announcement as PDCO was all over the map.
SHFL: Forecast 2-26-04 with earnings.
SONC: No split with 1-24 shareholder meeting. Still forming up well.
TARO: No split 2-17 before the open. Falling back to the 50 day MVA, never giving us a chance.
TOL: Forecast 2-24-04 in conjunction with earnings or on 3-2-04 with a board meeting.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Forecast 2-19 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. No split announced but still working well over the 10 day MVA.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04. Still moving up on those great earnings.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/18/2004
UTX (United Technologies--$97.24; -0.12; optionable): Defense contracts, elevators, etc.
BACKGROUND: Last split May 18, 1999 (2:1). Announced at a price near $100.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utx.html
STATUS: Flat base. It has been a while since UTX split, but it is finally getting back up near that $100 level where it pulls the trigger. Its weighting in the SP500 is being increased, so it has been under accumulation, showing a big spike Wednesday on volume. It is trying to make the breakout from a 9 week flat base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume versus 1 down price week on rising volume). Solid money flow in addition to the accumulation. Thursday it was close to the buy point on continued solid volume. Just being patient and waiting for it to make the breakout on strong trade. Nice pattern.
Volume: 2.518M Avg Volume: 1.961M
BUY POINT: $97.94 Volume=2.8M Target=$112 Stop=$94.88
POSITION: UTX HT - Aug. $100c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/utx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/27/2004
TOL (Toll Brothers--$41.3; -0.04; optionable): Home builder. Forecast to announce a split on 2-24-04 in conjunction with earnings or on 3-2-04 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed theses dates, but based upon our research these are the dates for the events.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-02 at a stock price of $25.60. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-20-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tol.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Nice move Tuesday but with the housing starts data it fell back. Volume did not race higher, however, and TOL has held above the 10 day MVA (40.91) the past two sessions as it continues laterally in its 11 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA (39.73). Just have to let it absorb the housing starts data and make the next strong volume move.
Volume: 634K Avg Volume: 1.137M
BUY POINT: $42.71 Volume=1.2M Target=$51 Stop=$40.42
POSITION: TOL FH - June $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tol.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
VAR (Varian Medical Systems--$83.15; -0.48; optionable): Medical Equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for1 split on 11-19-01 at a stock price of $70.20. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Well, no announcement Thursday but VAR is still a leader and an announcement could come at any time. It is working laterally over the 10 day MVA (82.99) on very low volume. Looking for it to hold and make a stronger, above average volume breakout. That is when we move in with new positions.
Volume: 363K Avg Volume: 506.5K
BUY POINT: New: $84.55 (orig. $64.50) Volume=1.1M Target=New positions: $100 (orig. $74.25) Stop=$80.92
POSITION: VAR EQ - May $85c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/var.html
PRE-SPLITS
New buy point on this one:
Play Date: 02/17/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$78.9; -0.66; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 3:2 on 3-16.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (78.72) on below average volume as BRL continues to form the handle to its 11 week base. Excellent money flow is surging ahead of price even as the stock works laterally. Just being patient and waiting for the next break higher.
Volume: 522.9K Avg Volume: 716.363K
BUY POINT: $80.72 Volume=700K Target=$85.75 Stop=$78.45
POSITION: BRL EP - May $80c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 02/14/2004
NATI (National Instruments--$49.35; +0.35; optionable): Computer peripherals. Splits 3:2 on 2-23-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. NATI is still moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (48.79) in a narrow range. Looking for the pre-split momentum to take over. Volume was up Thursday as it showed a tight doji. Waiting for the next move on even better trade. Volume was stronger but still below average. Want to see an above average volume surge. NATI has shown a series of strong moves off the 50 day MVA (47.22) on this run.
Volume: 183.875K Avg Volume: 166.454K
BUY POINT: New: $49.55 (orig. $49.25 Volume=300K Target=$57 Stop=$48.12
POSITION: SJQ FJ - June $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nati.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
