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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Friday: ABTL; ANPI; ELAB; TASR; ULTI; AVID; CTX
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits
Play Date: 02/21/2004
CEC (CEC Entertainment--$51.62; +1.16; optionable): Chuck-E-Cheese restaurants. Splits 3:2 on 3-16-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CEC is trying to form the handle to an 11 week base formed at the 50 day MVA (48.33). A base forming on that support shows there is big money standing behind the stock. Maybe it is in the form of all of those parents that take their children to Chuck-E-Cheese to let them tear that place up as opposed to home. In any event, after a quiet move along the 50 day, volume has surged the past four sessions as CEC moved off that support. It is working laterally now just over 50, and will probably need 2 or 3 more sessions to work laterally before it makes the next move. With the volume and its move higher Friday, it could make the move at any point.
Volume: 294.2K Avg Volume: 181.636K
BUY POINT: $52.12 Volume=272K Target=$57.35 Stop=$49.38
POSITION: CEC FJ - June $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cec.html
Play Date: 02/21/2004
CLZR (Canela--$22.17; +0.03; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 3-17-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clzr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CLZR exploded out of a short 7 week base in mid-January and raced to 26.95 on that move. It has spent the past 4 weeks moving back to test that move, coming back to test the breakout point at 22. Volume has backed off that to well below average on that move, indicating that the selling is light as it makes the test. Good accumulation in the prior bases set up the move, and after this test holds we anticipate it will start to move higher ahead of the split. Nice thing is, it can give us a move back up to the prior high and deliver a nice return.
Volume: 129.972K Avg Volume: 190.227K
BUY POINT: $22.65 Volume=235K Target=$26 Stop=$21.94
POSITION: UKZ EX - May $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clzr.html
Play Date: 02/21/2004
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$57.30; -0.62; optionable): Sporting goods. Splits 2:1 on 4-6-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. DKS is a stock that has made us money in the past, and it looks as if it is giving us a chance here again. It announced a split, its first, and that broke it out of a 6 week cup base sporting strong 4 to 1 accumulation. Last week it came back to test the breakout, tapping at the 10 day MVA (56.51) on the Friday low and rebounding on rising, above average volume. The pullback occurred on mostly lower volume, indicating very little selling on the pullback. Looks like a good point to rebound and looks ready to do just that.
Volume: 350.5K Avg Volume: 297.272K
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=400K Target=$66.35 Stop=$56.18
POSITION: DKS FL - June $60c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
Leader Plays: May not be ready for a split but can make us good money and some can grow into split candidates.
Play Date: 02/21/2004
DRAX (Draxis Health--$4.48; -0.06; no options): Wholesale drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drax.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DRAX broke out of a long, 20 month cup with handle base in January, surging to 5.49 on the high. It fell back from there but has continued its move up the 18 day MVA (4.38). Last week it made a low volume pullback, showing a doji over the 18 day on Friday as volume edged back up near average. That often indicates a stock has finished its test and is ready to continue the move higher. Relative strength broke out on the move and money flow has remained strong even as the stock pulled back. Looking for DRAX to rebound from here on above average trade to move into positions.
Volume: 324.879K Avg Volume: 321.318K
BUY POINT: $4.68 Volume=385K Target=$5.65 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drax.html
Continuing Leader Plays
Play Date: 02/19/2004
INTL (Inter-Tel--$30.65; -1; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. INTL is making the breakout test we were looking for, tapping 30 on the Friday and intraday low and rebounding to cut its losses. INTL broke out of a 22 week reverse head and shoulders last Wednesday on a big volume spike. Thursday and Friday it eased back on much lower volume. Accumulation in the base is solid at 7 to 4; this is part of a much larger 18 month reverse head and shoulders. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. Looks ready to continue the move.
Volume: 419.567K Avg Volume: 307.454K
BUY POINT: $31.12 Volume=458K Target=$35.88 Stop=$29.05
POSITION: TPQ GF - July $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/intl.html
Play Date: 02/10/2004
SPAB (Spacehab--$3.40; -0.02; no options): Space habitats
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spab.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice test of the breakout underway with a nice, tight doji on the candlestick pattern Friday. SPAB made a big breakout from a 6 week flying plateau Tuesday and has tested back on below average volume since. An excellent test of a nice breakout, and we are ready to jump in with more positions on the next move up that is accompanied with stronger, above average volume.
Volume: 168.234K Avg Volume: 324.409K
BUY POINT: New: $3.55 (orig. $3.49) Volume=451K Target=$4.35 Stop=$3.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spab.html
Play Date: 01/31/2004
TIVO (Tivo--$11.40; +0.27; optionable): Digital television playback
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tivo.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another strong stock that is pulling back to test a strong move. This is actually the handle forming to a 7.5 month cup with handle base sporting 10 to 6 accumulation. Relative strength broke out on the run higher, a very good indication of the stock's strength vis- -vis the market. Volume has fallen off the table on this pullback. It is holding over the 18 day MVA (11.12), tapping that level on the Friday low and rebounding to show a doji. Money flow is surging higher even as the stock pulls back to test this level. Looks super.
Volume: 1.556M Avg Volume: 3.163M
BUY POINT: $11.16 Volume=4.5M Target=$13.35 Stop=$11.08
POSITION: TUK EB - May $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tivo.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: No split announced with 2-2-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. Still in a nice test on low volume.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Forecast 1-28-04. No split announced. Testing the 18 day MVA as it tries to hold the move.
DE: Forecast 2-17-04. No split but great earnings. Testing the move on low volume.
DNA: Forecast in April.
ELAB: Forecast 2-19-04. No split announcement. Held the 18 day MVA and is rebounding.
IDXX: Researching next date.
IRM: Forecast 2-26-04. Getting rattled ahead of earnings this week.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LOW: Possible 2-23-04, but looking to May shareholder meeting. Good pattern so want to get in on a breakout move.
LXK: No split announced 1-26-04. Still making that lower volume shakeout.
MBG: Researching new date.
MBT: Researching date. Now working laterally over the 10 day.
MIK: Forecast 3-3-04.
NMGA: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close.
NSIT: No split announced on 2-5-04 after the close. Nice 18 day MVA test still in progress.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04. No split announcement but solid earnings.
SHFL: Forecast 2-26-04 with earnings. Holding the 18 day MVA very well.
SONC: No split with 1-24 shareholder meeting. Still forming up well.
STJ: Forecast 11-21-04 in conjunction with earnings.
TOL: Forecast 2-24-04 in conjunction with earnings or on 3-2-04 with a board meeting.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Friday it was announced VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect. We expect that will be fore the split and will be ready to move in on any chance the stock gives us.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04. Still moving up on those great earnings.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: Retail stocks have been forming up well.
Play Date: 02/21/2004
LOW (Lowes--$58.38; +0.85; optionable): Home improvement stores. Forecast to announce a split on 2-23-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings or in the alternative on 4-2-04 in conjunction with a board meeting. Most likely with the annual shareholder meeting to be held around 5-25-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-25-01 at a stock price of $71. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-30-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LOW is working on the handle to a 16 week base. Accumulation in the pattern is 4 to 2, indicating that money has been moving into the stock as it has based after a nice 20 point run from the breakout of its prior base. This is how stocks move: big base and breakout, run higher, then another base. Thursday and Friday volume started returning to the stock, rising to above average. We will be looking to enter positions if it can capture some upside volume on the earnings news. Split or not, if it makes the move we will look to move in and then look to May for the split date.
Volume: 4.311M Avg Volume: 3.467M
BUY POINT: $58.75 Volume=5.2M Target=$67.55 Stop=$56.75
POSITION: LOW GL - July $60c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/low.html
Play Date: 02/21/2004
MIK (Michaels--$46.65; +0.14; optionable): Crafts, hobby stores. Forecast to announce a split on 3-3-04 during the market in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-31-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting was in June 03. The company has sufficient shares for q 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Similar to LOW, MIK is forming a cup with handle, holding roughly at the 50 day MVA (45.42). Accumulation is solid at 4 to 2, showing that money has moved into the stock during this base. Last week it fell back to the 18 day MVA (46.41), making the lower lows in the handle you want to see to shake out the last sellers. We are going to be patient and let it make the breakout move and move in with that gain, playing it like the leader stock it is.
Volume: 255.6K Avg Volume: 545.59K
BUY POINT: $48.44 Volume=815K Target=$55.72 Stop=$46.22
POSITION: MIK FT - June $47.50c (49 delt) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/02/2004
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$50.26; -0.28; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Announced solid earnings 1-26. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 back in 1995 at $45.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. IDXX is coming back to test the breakout from an 11 week base sporting strong 4 to 1 accumulation. After running to 53, it has come back to test the 18 day MVA (50.46). Money flow remains strong as it makes the lower volume test that showed us one higher volume spike on Wednesday. Want it to hold somewhere between here and 50, and then give us a strong, above average volume jump higher. That is when we move in.
Volume: 137.385K Avg Volume: 208.355K
BUY POINT: New: $51.12 (orig. $50.22) Volume=500K Target=$58 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: UID GJ - July $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idxx.html
Play Date: 01/13/2004
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$73.65; -0.09; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split 4-21-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: STJ last announced a split April of 2002 at a price of $74.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. STJ is making an18 day MVA (72.24) test after a nice, high volume breakout from its 7.5 month cup with handle base in late January. After reaching 76.10 on the peak of the breakout run, it is easing back to test the 18 day on very low, below average volume. Friday it tapped the 18 day on the low and rebounded hard to recoup its losses. That is the kind of action you like to see on tests of near support. Stocks tend to test the short term MVA (10 or 18 day MVA) 4 to 5 times after a breakout as they run higher in the breakout move. This puts STJ in excellent position to continue this run. Looking for an above average volume bounce from this level to add to or start new positions.
Volume: 1.275M Avg Volume: 1.474M
BUY POINT: New: $74.55 (orig. $64.68) Volume=2.2M Target=New positions: $85 (orig. $75) Stop=$72.12
POSITION: STJ GO - July $75c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stj.html
Play Date: 01/27/2004
TOL (Toll Brothers--$40.72; -0.58; optionable): Home builder. Forecast to announce a split on 2-24-04 in conjunction with earnings or on 3-2-04 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed theses dates, but based upon our research these are the dates for the events.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-02 at a stock price of $25.60. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-20-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tol.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Last week was harder on homebuilders given the housing start numbers. This week there will be news regarding existing and new home sales. Despite the CPI scare Friday, mortgage rates remain low, having moved lower the past few weeks. That will always spur house acquisition. TOL pulled back toward the 50 day MVA (39.77) on the news, but did so on low volume. That indicates little selling as it shakes out the last sellers. Still working in its 11 week base, and waiting for another solid volume move to add to positions. That may come with the announcement anticipated early this week.
Volume: 546K Avg Volume: 1.136M
BUY POINT: $42.71 Volume=1.2M Target=$51 Stop=$40.42
POSITION: TOL FH - June $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tol.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
VAR (Varian Medical Systems--$83.12; -0.03; optionable): Medical Equipment. Will be holding a special shareholder meeting to increase shares the time of which has yet to be announced.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for1 split on 11-19-01 at a stock price of $70.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. No announcement, but it is clear one is coming. We have some positions and are looking for more. VAR is getting ready to give us the signal to buy as it continues its 3 week lateral move over the 18 day MVA (81.88), showing a tight doji with tale at that level Friday. We like these because the stock sells lower but then buyers rush in to pick it up. The pattern thus often indicates the next move up is just ahead. It also helps when volume jumps on the move as it did Friday, rallying back to just above average. Looking to pick it up on a continued volume break through the next buy point. Powerful stock.
Volume: 597K Avg Volume: 540.117K
BUY POINT: New: $84.55 (orig. $64.50) Volume=1.1M Target=New positions: $100 (orig. $74.25) Stop=$80.92
POSITION: VAR EQ - May $85c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/var.html
PRE-SPLITS
New buy point on this one:
Play Date: 02/17/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$78.02; -0.88; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 3:2 on 3-16.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BRL continues to shake out the last sellers, dipping down to the 18 day MVA (77.84) Friday on continued below average volume. Good action in the handle to its 11 week base. Money flow continues to rally well ahead of price, and after this lower volume shakeout, we are looking for BRL to rally back on above average volume. That will be our cue to enter new plays.
Volume: 534.4K Avg Volume: 718.272K
BUY POINT: $80.72 Volume=700K Target=$85.75 Stop=$78.45
POSITION: BRL EP - May $80c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 02/17/2004
RJF (Raymond James Finl.--$38.84; +0.15; optionable): Brokerage. Splits 3:2 on 3-25-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rjf.html
STATUS: Test 10 day MVA. Still working through a 15 week cup base sporting 3 to 1 accumulation, holding its ground at near support as it continues to work on shaking out the last sellers. A nice pullback to the 10 day last week, and Friday's action makes it look as if it is ready to try a bounce. Want to see volume jump as the price does the same.
Volume: 184.4K Avg Volume: 181.954K
BUY POINT: $39.62 Volume=304K Target=$44.55 Stop=$37.95
POSITION: RJF EH - May $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rjf.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/29/2004
NFLX (Netflix--$35.38; +1.23; optionable): Music and videos via mail.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. A nice winner for us, NFLX is now setting up for the next move. It rallied well in January up to 40, and has since eased back to the 50 day MVA (32.48), tapping that level on the Friday low and then rebounding for a gain. Volume jumped Friday, surging well above average. This is exactly what you want to see on a 50 day MVA as it shows investors jumping into the stock as it makes the test of this key support. The 50 day MVA is where big money investors step in to buy their favorite stocks. We will come to eat at that table as well. Looking for another move higher over the short term MVA (10 day MVA at 35.64, 18 day MVA at 35.49) to take new positions.
Volume: 5.518M Avg Volume: 4.266M
BUY POINT: $35.88 Volume=5M Target=$41.35 Stop=$33.45
POSITION: QNQ FG - June $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nflx.html
End part 2 of 3
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