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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Thursday: ABTL; DNA; MVIS; QCOM; EVCI; SLAB; SYMC; TOL
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits
Play Date: 02/26/2004
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$56.91; +1.47; optionable): Sporting goods. Splits 2:1 on 4-6-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Looking at DKS again. It looked as if it was falling through the 18 day MVA (55.28), but it held the line, throwing off a doji Wednesday (an indication a pullback may be over) and then rallied Thursday on lower though still above average volume. Solid money flow leading higher and relative strength ready for the next breakout (a sign of a strong breakout). Solid 5 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), an indication of institutional support for the stock even as it worked through its correction. The strongest of the sporting goods stores, and one of the stronger stocks in the market.
Volume: 319.8K Avg Volume: 290.818K
BUY POINT: $57.25 Volume=400K Target=$66.35 Stop=$55.08
POSITION: DKS FL - June $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
Play Date: 02/26/2004
POG (Patina Oil & Gas--$50.25; +0.70; optionable): Oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on 3-4-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pog.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume has exploded the past two sessions as POG starts the breakout from its 8 week base sporting 3 to 2 accumulation. Money flow is surging with the volume, and it looks as if POG is going to be another good energy stock that gives us a good breakout.
Volume: 697.4K Avg Volume: 305.59K
BUY POINT: $50.58 Volume=458K Target=$55.88 Stop=$48.38
POSITION: POG FJ - June $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pog.html
Leader plays: May or may not turn into split candidates, but good patterns ready to move.
Play Date: 02/26/2004
CLKS (Click2learn--$2.47; +0.22; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clks.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CLKS has formed a 16 week pattern, holding at the 50 day MVA (2.22) as it did, a sign of solid support for the stock. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 6 to 1, another indication of strong support. Money flow has been leading well ahead of the price, and after a test of the 50 day MVA early this week CLKS jumped off that level Thursday on a strong volume surge. Looking to pick it up on a further move from here on continued solid trade.
Volume: 562.367K Avg Volume: 200.454K
BUY POINT: $2.54 Volume=301K Target=$3.18 Stop=$2.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clks.html
Play Date: 02/26/2004
XLNX (Xilinx--$42.13; +1.06; optionable): Semiconductor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume started to surge Thursday, moving back above average as XLNX jumped off the 50 day MVA (40.03). Accumulation in the base is a strong 3 to 0. Nice base that formed over 40, and when the 50 day rose to meet it, XLNX started higher. XLNX is a leader, and it looks as if it is trying to get an early start on the next run despite the problems in the semiconductor sector. Relative strength is ready to make a new breakout with the stock, a sign that the breakout is hitting on all cylinders.
Volume: 8.802M Avg Volume: 6.935M
BUY POINT: $43.22 Volume=10M Target=$49.75 Stop=$40.92
POSITION: XLQ FS - June $42.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xlnx.html
Continuing Leader Plays
Play Date: 02/19/2004
INTL (Inter-Tel--$30.82; +0.23; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. INTL keeps holding over the 10 day MVA (30), tapping that level on the low the past three sessions and rebounding on the close. INTL has made the test of the big breakout, and we are waiting patiently for it to resume the breakout moves after this test. Money flow is surging ahead of price and relative strength is moving for a breakout. Just need to get some volume back in it as it makes the move through the buy point. The base it broke out of was a solid 22 week reverse head and shoulders base sporting solid 7 to 4 accumulation.
Volume: 184.948K Avg Volume: 308.272K
BUY POINT: $31.12 Volume=458K Target=$35.88 Stop=$29.05
POSITION: TPQ GF - July $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/intl.html
Play Date: 01/31/2004
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$56.62; +1.55; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Explosive breakouts in January and February as SLAB kept raising and beating expectations. It has come back in the recent market weakness to test the last breakout, holding the first one as it tests the 18 day MVA (53.73). It has started to jump back already, surging Thursday on rising, above average volume. Money flow is running higher already, and the stock is starting to follow. A market leader before the pullback, and it looks ready to set the pace again ahead of the rest of the market.
Volume: 1.844M Avg Volume: 1.402M
BUY POINT: New: $56.92 (orig. $51.12) Volume=1.9M Target=New positions: $65 (orig. positions $58) Stop=$52.12
POSITION: QFJ GK - July $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slab.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04. Did not see an announcement yet, but a very nice test underway.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting. Held the 50 day MVA on the low and rebounded nicely.
BCR: Researching next date.
DNA: Forecast in 4-16-04 with shareholder meeting. Got the volume.
ELAB: Researching next date. Huge volume Thursday.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
IRM: Forecast 2-26-04. No split but great earnings and a huge move from this leader.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LOW: Forecast in the May shareholder meeting. Holding the 50 day MVA.
LXK: Researching next date. Nice test of 50 day MVA.
MBG: Forecast 3-4-04 before the open.
MBT: Researching date.
MIK: Forecast 3-3-04.
NMGA: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SHFL: Forecast 2-26-04 with earnings. No split but a nice blast higher on tremendous trade.
SONC: Forecast 3-15-04.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
TOL: No split with earnings so looking to 3-2-04 with a board meeting. What a superb break higher on strong volume on strong earnings.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Last Friday it was announced VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect. We expect that will be for the split and will be ready to move in on any chance the stock gives us.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: No announcement 2-11-04. Nice 18 day MVA and bounce on volume.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/13/2004
AGN (Allergan--$86.24; +0.01; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split on 4-26-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings or on 2-2-04 in conjunction with the annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 1-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $36.5. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 2-2-04 at 9:30 am. Additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. Still working over the 18 day MVA (85.82) as it tests the breakout. The range is narrowing as volume edges higher. Money flow remains strong, and it looks as if AGN is preparing for the next leg. Looking for above average volume as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 763.7K Avg Volume: 807.363K
BUY POINT: New: $87.65 (orig. $84.46) Volume=1.2M Target=$94 Stop=$85.94
POSITION: AGN GQ - July $85c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agn.html
Play Date: 02/07/2004
LM (Legg Mason--$94; +0.8; optionable): Investment brokerage. Looking to April for the announcement, but moving very well now.
BACKGROUND: LM last announced a 2:1 split in July 1998 at a price of $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Not giving us the volume we want to see as if makes the move up off the 18 day MVA (91.42). We held back on new positions given the volume as the typically means when it hits next resistance at 95 it will stall. If volume does jump as it moves through that resistance, that is a strong signal and we will add some positions at that point. LM exploded out of a nice 13 week cup with handle two weeks back and this has been the test.
Volume: 336.7K Avg Volume: 441.363K
BUY POINT: New: 95.12 (orig. $92.24) Volume=550K Target=$102 Stop=$91.97
POSITION: LM QR - May $90c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
Play Date: 01/03/2004
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$104; +1.21; optionable): Russian wireless communications. Still researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: No splits in its past, and a foreign stock as well. That does not mean it won't split, but it is harder to predict. What we do like is the pattern and its leadership status; it can make us nice gains without announcing a split, and when it comes, all the better.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. MBT is making its third test of the 18 day MVA (102.10) after breaking out of a nice 3.5 month cup with handle base in January. It has moved laterally the past four sessions over this support, and we are just being patient and letting it show us the next move on rising volume to add to positions.
Volume: 215.5K Avg Volume: 232.772K
BUY POINT: New: 105.25 (orig. $88.39) Volume=412K Target=New positions: $120 (orig. $99.95) Stop=$101.12
POSITION: MBT FA - June $105c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
Play Date: 02/21/2004
MIK (Michaels--$47.85; +0.73; optionable): Crafts, hobby stores. Forecast to announce a split on 3-3-04 during the market in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-31-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting was in June 03. The company has sufficient shares for q 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving up off the 18 day MVA (46.62) in its 15 week base, but volume is not moving with the stock, lagging well below average. Accumulation is solid at 4 to 2, but have to see more volume as it breaks higher.
Volume: 199.8K Avg Volume: 533.181K
BUY POINT: $48.44 Volume=815K Target=$55.72 Stop=$46.22
POSITION: MIK FT - June $47.50c (49 delt) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
Play Date: 02/07/2004
OSI (Outback Steakhouse--$47.4; +1.17; optionable): Steakhouse attempting to be Australian. Forecast to announce a split on 4-15-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in November 1991 at approximately $26. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. OSI is making the breakout from its 12 week base, gapping higher Thursday on strong volume as it reported much better than expected sales. We did not like the action to move in as it sold back much of the session. We are going to see if it pulls back a bit more and then when it starts back up, move in.
Volume: 710.2K Avg Volume: 503.227K
BUY POINT: New: $47.65 (orig. $45.12) Volume=650K Target=$54 Stop=$41.96
POSITION: OSI HI - Aug. $45c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osi.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$34.87; +0.56; optionable): Roller skating burger joints. Forecast to announce a split 3-15-04 in conjunction with earnings or at the shareholder meeting on 1-28-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 1-17-02 in conjunction with a shareholder meeting at a price of $36.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Flat base. Trying to make the breakout from its 8 week base but it is not getting any volume yet. Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to make the breakout. It is moving in sympathy to other restaurant stocks but we have to see the volume.
Volume: 152.648K Avg Volume: 253.045K
BUY POINT: New: $35.06 (orig. $33.68) Volume=562K Target=$41 Stop=$32.62
POSITION: ZSQ FF - June $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
VAR (Varian Medical Systems--$82.71; +0.8; optionable): Medical Equipment. Will be holding a special shareholder meeting to increase shares the time of which has yet to be announced.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for1 split on 11-19-01 at a stock price of $70.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA (82.18) on very low, below average volume as VAR tests its breakout, holding its gains as it does. That is a sign of strength. Being patient and waiting for the next volume break higher.
Volume: 321.3K Avg Volume: 512.272K
BUY POINT: New: $84.55; Clean break: 85.12 (orig. $64.50) Volume=1.1M Target=New positions: $100 (orig. $74.25) Stop=$80.92
POSITION: VAR EQ - May $85c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/var.html
Play Date: 01/03/2004
VIP (Vimple Communication--$83.38; +1.18; optionable): Russian wireless. Forecast 3-26-04.
BACKGROUND: No splits in its past, and a foreign stock as well. That does not mean it won't split, but it is harder to predict. What we do like is the pattern and its leadership status; it can make us nice gains without announcing a split, and when it comes, all the better.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Breakout test. VIP continues to move laterally over the 10 day MVA (80.73) on very low, below average volume following its gap higher on strong volume two weeks back. Relative strength has held up well as it makes this lateral move, and we are patiently waiting for the next break higher on stronger trade.
Volume: 260.5K Avg Volume: 431.909K
BUY POINT: New: 83.78 (orig. $73.34) Volume=615K Target=New positions: $93 (orig. $85) Stop=$79.97
POSITION: VIP GP - July $85c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 02/24/2004
ATVI (Activision--$20.89; +0.09; optionable): Multimedia Graphics software. Splits 3:2 on 3-26-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Edging higher, but volume is not coming through just yet. ATVI broke from a 7 week flat base 3 weeks back on a nice volume surge. It rallied to 21.75 on the high then pulled back the past week to the 18 day MVA (20.16). Relative strength broke out on the move, a sign of the stock is out performing the rest of the market. As it has come back to make this test, money flow has stayed strong and well above the price. It has worked up to the 10 day, testing it on the Thursday low (20.60). Just want to see a good volume spike to send it on its way.
Volume: 1.467M Avg Volume: 1.933M
BUY POINT: New: $21.06 (orig. $20.65) Volume=2.3M Target=$23.75 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: AQV ED - May $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atvi.html
Play Date: 02/17/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$77.7; +1.16; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 3:2 on 3-16.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Has held the 50 day MVA (76.78) in the handle of its 12 week base, and Thursday started back up off this level on rising volume. Still not the level it needs to be, but we are going to stay with it and look for a good volume surge as it clears the 10 day MVA (77.66).
Volume: 426.7K Avg Volume: 720.227K
BUY POINT: New: $78.06 (orig. $80.72) Volume=975K Target=$85.75 Stop=$78.45
POSITION: BRL EP - May $80c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 02/10/2004
TASR (Taser--$53.6; +0.11; no options): Stun guns
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tasr.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. After the big jump at the split, TASR has come back to test that move, holding over the 18 day MVA (50.94). It has edged up to the 10 day MVA (53.48) and is showing tight dojis at that level as volume backs off. It looks as if it is crouching once more before it makes the next run.
Volume: 2.112M Avg Volume: 3.654M
BUY POINT: New: $54.55 (orig. $45.88) Volume=1M Target=New: $68 (orig. $54.55) Stop=$56.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tasr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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