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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Thursday: ALVR; CHS; CHT; EVCI; MBT; NMGA; TOL; TTP; UOPX; WRLS; APOL
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits: These are momentum plays where we look to jump on when it makes the move, grab some gain, and when it starts to falter, take the money. We often use options in order to leverage the smaller price movements we look for on these plays.
Play Date: 03/04/2004
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$63.24; +2.75; optionable): Education and training. Splits 2:1 on 3-4-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Pre-split. COCO just came off of a test of the 200 day MVA (56.42) as this sector has been a bit volatile. That makes for some strong moves both ways, and it looks as if COCO is starting a run toward its prior high at 67, rising on some above average volume all the way off the 200 day. Looking to jump onto the momentum of this stock as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.045M Avg Volume: 1.054M
BUY POINT: $63.65 Volume=1.6M Target=$70 Stop=$60.75
POSITION: UCS EL - May $60c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 03/04/2004
MICC (Millicom Cellular--$22.92; +0.67; optionable): Foreign telecom. Just split 4:1 and we expect investors to move in.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. MICC broke from an 11 week base in mid-February, but could not make much headway before falling into the current 3 week lateral base over the 10 day MVA (21.99). Volume has been quite low until Thursday when it shot higher. Gave back half the move, but looks very good with excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) and money flow surging up ahead of price even as the stock moves laterally. The accumulation shows money moving into the stock even as it bases, setting the stage for the next breakout and run.
Volume: 1.804M Avg Volume: 71.334K
BUY POINT: $23.05 Volume=550K Target=$27.68 Stop=$21.44
POSITION: CQD GX - July $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/micc.html
Play Date: 03/04/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$16.36; +0.35; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After an excellent surge in 2003 MSCC needed a rest, and it is taking one with the current 7 week base forming over the 18 day MVA (15.62), using that as support for the higher and higher lows that build pressure below the constant top at 16.50. Volume has backed off the past week as it completes the base. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern, setting the stage for the coming breakout.
Volume: 649.942K Avg Volume: 307.328K
BUY POINT: $16.55 Volume=700K Target=$19.92 Stop=$15.52
POSITION: QMS FC - June $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
Play Date: 03/04/2004
YAKC (Yak Communications--$15.37; +0.87; no options): Foreign Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yakc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. YAKC surged after its split and then fell to the 50 day (13.30) in late February. Volume backed off as it moved laterally along that level, and then started to swell as it moved up Wednesday. Thursday volume shot above average as YAKC cleared the short term MVA. A great momentum stock, and it can give us a great return without even moving up to the prior high at 20.
Volume: 142.196K Avg Volume: 73.151K
BUY POINT: $15.75 Volume=150K Target=$19.65 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yakc.html
Leader plays: May or may not turn into split candidates, but good patterns ready to move.
Play Date: 03/04/2004
AFCI (Advanced Fibre Comm.--$25.46; +0.48; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afci.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. AFCI is trying to make the breakout from a 6 month base. Volume jumped as it gapped higher Thursday, stalling at the door of the breakout. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows money moving in. The bottom of the base tapped the 200 day MVA (21.01) and bounced, a good sign of institutional support. Looking for the stock to blow through 26 on strong trade for us to move in.
Volume: 3.453M Avg Volume: 1.67M
BUY POINT: $26.75 Volume=2.5M Target=$32 Stop=$24.88
POSITION: AQF FE - June $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/afci.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/19/2004
INTL (Inter-Tel--$30.71; +0.3; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. INTL broke out of a 4 month cup base in mid-February, but in the market weakness pulled back and then moved laterally over the 10 and 18 day MVA (30.46, 29.94). It has been moving laterally on lower volume the past week in a narrow range as money flow continues to move higher. It is about ready to resume the move.
Volume: 110.213K Avg Volume: 323.447K
BUY POINT: $31.12 Volume=458K Target=$35.88 Stop=$29.05
POSITION: TPQ GF - July $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/intl.html
Play Date: 02/14/2004
PRFT (Perficient--$4.15; +0.1; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Holding the 10 day MVA (4.02) on lower volume as it prepares for the next breakout move. Money flow continues to move higher as it takes a breather. Just being patient and letting the solid accumulation and money flow work. When we see the higher volume move through the buy point we will move in.
Volume: 85.653K Avg Volume: 167.445K
BUY POINT: $4.38 Volume=229K Target=$5.48 Stop=$4.07
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prft.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Researching next date.
BMET: 3-17-04
CAKE: 4-19-04
CHS: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close. No split announced but surging on tremendous sales. An announcement could still come during the next week.
DNA: Forecast in 4-16-04 with shareholder meeting. Announced its split early, but no problem as we have great positions already.
ELAB: Researching next date.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
IRM: Forecast 2-26-04. No split but great earnings and still moving higher.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LOW: Forecast in the May shareholder meeting.
LXK: Researching next date.
MBG: Forecast 3-4-04 before the open. No announcement but continuing its nice move as earnings jumped.
MBT: Researching date. What a move!
MIK: Forecast 3-3-04. No split, good earnings, but still has not broken out of from the nice pattern.
NMGA: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close. 82% gain. No split and it left us at the alter, but not a bad place to be left as it jumped higher on volume.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SHFL: No split on 2-26-04 with earnings. Nice test and now rebounding off 10 day MVA.
SONC: Forecast 3-15-04.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
TOL: No split with earnings so looking to 3-2-04 with a board meeting. Still surging on the earnings.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Two Fridays back it was announced VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect. We expect that will be for the split and will be ready to move in on any chance the stock gives us.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: No announcement 2-11-04. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/24/2004
APOL (Apollo Group--$80.08; +2.26; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to split 3-24-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Breakout. Breaking to a new high on solid volume, just clearing the recent high. Money flow is surging and relative strength is breaking out with the stock. This is one we have owned for a long time, and we are looking to add to positions here on this breakout. Volatile but it is trending higher and higher, as usual.
Volume: 2.008M Avg Volume: 1.742M
BUY POINT: $80.32 Volume=3M Target=$95 Stop=$75.96
POSITION: OAQ HP - Aug. $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 03/02/2004
HUG (Hughes Supply--$50.78; +1.68; optionable): Plumbing Supply. Forecast to announce a split 3-9-04 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 on 7-17-97 at a price of $39.50
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hug.html
STATUS: Flat base. Moving higher Thursday on rising though still below average volume as it starts toward the breakout from its 9 week base. Good price move but needs more trade. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base. The accumulation along with the base at the 50 day MVA shows there is solid support for this stock at that key level. Money flow continues to surge up ahead of price. Looking for the price to follow the money flow.
Volume: 220.7K Avg Volume: 218.708K
BUY POINT: New: $50.94 (orig. $50.62) Volume=314K Target=$58.25 Stop=$48.42
POSITION: HUG GJ - July $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hug.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 02/17/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$77.5; +0.34; optionable): Drugs. Splits 3:2 on 3-16-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Still working laterally along the 50 day MVA (78.89), trying to set up for the next move to rally into the split. This is a strong stock, and we are just being patient and waiting for the next big break higher on strong trade to step in as that shows us the big money is piling back into the stock and ready to push it higher.
Volume: 831K Avg Volume: 727.772K
BUY POINT: $78.22 Volume=700K Target=$85.75 Stop=$76.12
POSITION: BRL EP - May $80c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 02/28/2004
DCOM (Dime Community Bancshares--$31.70; +0.61; no options): Savings & loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcom.html
STATUS: Flat base. Thursday DCOM started to jump higher on strong trade, moving toward the breakout from its 13 week flat base/ascending triangle that has formed over the 50 day MVA (30.69). Solid 4 to 1 accumulation along with the base forming over the 50 day shows money flowing in as well as strong institutional support. Money flow is surging higher ahead of the stock, and with the volume Thursday, it looks as if it is going to move toward the breakout.
Volume: 178.951K Avg Volume: 133.369K
BUY POINT: $32.17 Volume=200K Target=$37 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dcom.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 03/02/2004
JEF (Jeffries Group--$38.12; +0.58; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jef.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Still working nicely though its 6 week base that has formed roughly over the 18 day MVA (37.24). Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) and money flow shooting higher ahead of the stock. Volume has been edging higher but did not rally Thursday. Need to see that happen as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 366.8K Avg Volume: 315.082K
BUY POINT: $38.38 Volume=600K Target=$44 Stop=$36.97
POSITION: JEF GH - July $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jef.html
Play Date: 03/02/2004
TTI (Tetra Technologies--$27.18; +0.93; no options): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tti.html
STATUS: Cup. Moving well Thursday but no volume. It is a volatile pattern, but has formed a definite cup the past 9 weeks, holding the 50 day MVA (25.13) on the lows as it formed the bottom of the pattern. Accumulation is strong at 3 to 0 as well. Need to see that volume run higher as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 84.8K Avg Volume: 138.126K
BUY POINT: $27.22 Volume=193K Target=$31.55 Stop=$25.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tti.html
Play Date: 02/10/2004
TASR (Taser--$51.93; -0.17; no options): Stun guns
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tasr.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. Still holding the 18 day MVA (51.75) on very low volume. A very nice, low volume pullback consolidating the gain. Just being patient to let this powerhouse turn back up on some strong volume.
Volume: 1.156M Avg Volume: 1.812M
BUY POINT: New: $54.88 (orig. $45.88) Volume=1M Target=New: $68 (orig. $54.55) Stop=$56.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tasr.html
Play Date: 01/24/2004
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$43.93; +0.54; optionable): Farm and ranch depot.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Starting to show signs it is ready to breakout, moving off the 18 day MVA (42.74) toward the breakout point in its 4 month reverse H&S pattern, the same type of pattern that launched TSCO higher out of the 2003 consolidation. Accumulation is decent at 3 to 1, and its formation over the 50 day MVA (41.79) is another good sign of institutional support. A nice price move is starting, now we need to see the volume move come in as well as it pushes through the buy point.
Volume: 201.29K Avg Volume: 444.045K
BUY POINT: $44.55 Volume=719K Target=$55 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: QTF GI - July $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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