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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Friday: ALVR; BR; BRL; DNA; LXK; MBG; EBAY; QCOM; TOL; TTP; VAPH; WRLS
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits: These are momentum plays where we look to jump on when it makes the move, grab some gain, and when it starts to falter, take the money. We often use options in order to leverage the smaller price movements we look for on these plays.
Play Date: 03/06/2004
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$43.85; -0.70; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. MRVL is moving in a 17 week base that is somewhat of a cup. It has been quite volatile the past three weeks with the rest of the semiconductors, but has managed to continue to trend higher, holding the 50 day MVA (42.33) on the low. In the last pullback it has held the 18 day MVA (43.57), Friday showing a doji at that point. Looking for a solid volume start to the move.
Volume: 2.361M Avg Volume: 2.803M
BUY POINT: $44.85 Volume=4.2M Target=$50.85 Stop=$43.38
POSITION: UVM HI - Aug. $45c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 03/06/2004
EBAY (Ebay--$69.31; +1.44; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Flat base. EBAY is one of our former pre-announcement and pre-split plays. It has made us some great money, and after a solid from December to January it has formed the current 7 week flat base over the 18 day MVA (68.08) on very low, below average volume. This type of action where a stock holds its gains and moves laterally on low volume is a sign of strength. Money flow has turned higher ahead of price and Friday EBAY was surging on strong, above average volume. Looking to pick it up on a break over 70 on continued strong trade.
Volume: 8.125M Avg Volume: 6.966M
BUY POINT: $70.12 Volume=10M Target=$80.25 Stop=$67.75
POSITION: XBA GN - July $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$24.43; +0.58; optionable): Apparel stores.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: PSUN split back in September and almost immediately fell into a 21 week base. It made the breakout move in early February and rallied to 25.78 before coming back to test the 50 day MVA (23.51) in the recent market weakness. It has tapped at that level the past three sessions and Friday started higher, clearing the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA). Looking for volume to surge as it moves through the buy point. A solid, long term winner.
Volume: 1.244M Avg Volume: 1.632M
BUY POINT: $25.04 Volume=2.4M Target=$30 Stop=$24.15
POSITION: PVQ FE - June $25c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Continuing Leader Plays: May or may not turn into split candidates, but good patterns ready to move.
AFCI, PRFT from the Thursday report still look ready to move.
Play Date: 02/19/2004
INTL (Inter-Tel--$30.50; -0.21; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still intriguing us as it holds over the 18 day MVA (30) on low, below average volume. INTL broke out of a 4 month cup base in mid-February, but in the market weakness pulled back and then moved laterally over the 10 and 18 day MVA (30.46, 29.94). It is holding up well at this near support while money flow continues its strong pace out in front. Showed a doji Friday, and that can indicate a pullback is over. Want to see some surging volume on the move.
Volume: 166.882K Avg Volume: 312.069K
BUY POINT: $31.12 Volume=458K Target=$35.88 Stop=$29.05
POSITION: TPQ GF - July $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/intl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Researching next date.
BMET: 3-17-04
CAKE: 4-19-04
CHS: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close. No split announced but still surging on tremendous sales. An announcement could still come this week.
DNA: Again, announced its split early and is still surging. Nice.
ELAB: Researching next date.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LOW: Forecast in the May shareholder meeting.
LXK: Researching next date. Great move Friday off the 50 day MVA on volume.
MBG: Forecast 3-4-04 before the open. No announcement but exploding higher. Excellent and just hanging onto it.
MBT: Researching date. Looks great after the Thursday breakout.
MIK: No split 3-3-04, but looks to be setting up for the breakout from its nice pattern.
NMGA: Strong move on earnings even with no 3-3-04 split announcement.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SHFL: Researching next date. Still surging higher on above average volume.
SONC: Forecast 3-15-04.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings. Super move Friday on very strong volume.
TOL: No split with the board meeting on 3-2 but no complaints with the strong move higher. The beauty of playing market leaders.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Two Fridays back it was announced VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Researching next date. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/06/2004
CDWC (CDW Computer Centers--$71.63; 0.00; optionable): Wholesale computers
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter before the bear market plunge, CDWC has finally fought back up to the $70 level where it announced regular splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdwc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CDWC continues to perform, breaking higher out of a base on base pattern (flat base October to December and then another one mid-January through February). It exploded higher to start the month and has eased back on lower volume to the 10 day MVA (70.68) to test the move, showing a doji at that level Friday as volume started to edge higher. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) in the last base, setting a good foundation for the breakout and run higher. Money flow has continued to move up ahead of the stock as it has pulled back to test the breakout move. Solid, and just looking for a good, above average volume move on the jump higher to enter positions.
Volume: 797.33K Avg Volume: 1.319M
BUY POINT: $72.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$82 Stop=$70.35
POSITION: DWQ GN - July $70c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdwc.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
NCEN (New Century Financial--$51.27; +2.12; optionable): Mortgage investment
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in May 2003 at a price of $42.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncen.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. The jobs news caused bonds to jump and rates to fall, and interest sensitive stocks, already performing nicely, started breaking higher. Friday NCEN surged out of a 7 week triangle, gapping higher and running on strong trade. Accumulation in the short pattern is a strong 3 to 1, showing that money was moving in during the lateral move. Looking to move in on a further move on continued strong volume.
Volume: 1.579M Avg Volume: 1.01M
BUY POINT: $51.52 Volume=1.2M Target=$61 Stop=$48.24
POSITION: URE HJ - Aug. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncen.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/02/2004
HUG (Hughes Supply--$50.41; -0.37; optionable): Plumbing Supply. Forecast to announce a split 3-9-04 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 on 7-17-97 at a price of $39.50
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hug.html
STATUS: Flat base. Nice surge Thursday but volume faded Friday and HUG took the day off. It is still solid in its 9 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation and strong money flow. Need some volume this week as it moves to the buy point.
Volume: 86.9K Avg Volume: 220.392K
BUY POINT: New: $50.94 (orig. $50.62) Volume=314K Target=$58.25 Stop=$48.42
POSITION: HUG GJ - July $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hug.html
Play Date: 02/07/2004
LM (Legg Mason--$94.56; +1.01; optionable): Forecast to announce a split mid-April before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: LM last announced a 2:1 split in July 1998 at a price of $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. LM is testing the nice breakout in January, making its second lateral move over the 18 day MVA (93.72) since that initial break higher. Volume has been mostly lower as the stock moves laterally. Very solid with strong money flow and accumulation supporting the stock. Friday it posted a good price move but volume was lagging. Looking for it to take out the high on a strong volume move, and that is when we move in for more positions.
Volume: 318.4K Avg Volume: 459.234K
BUY POINT: New: $95.55 (orig. $92.24) Volume=550K Target=$102 Stop=$92.92
POSITION: LM QS - May $95c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
Play Date: 02/21/2004
MIK (Michaels--$48.57; +0.58; optionable): Did not announce with earnings on 3-3, but we could see an announcement this week.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-31-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. the annual shareholder meeting was in June 03. The company has sufficient shares for q 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Showing some life in its 17 week base, rallying Friday as volume improved late in the week. It was not a big surge of trade, however, and MIK gave up most of its Friday gains. Still a very solid base with good 4 to 2 accumulation. Being patient and looking for some volume to enter as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 417.8K Avg Volume: 542.029K
BUY POINT: $48.44 Volume=815K Target=$55.72 Stop=$46.22
POSITION: MIK FT - June $47.50c (49 delt) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 02/21/2004
CLZR (Canela--$22.89; -0.41; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 3-17-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clzr.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. Holding up very well over the 18 day MVA (22.72), moving laterally on below average volume and showing a nice doji once more. It looks to be crouching for the jump higher. Just want to see volume move up more on the next move higher.
Volume: 93.16K Avg Volume: 191.523K
BUY POINT: New: $23.45 (orig. $22.65) Volume=235K Target=$26 Stop=$22.38
POSITION: UKZ EX - May $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clzr.html
Play Date: 03/04/2004
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$63.13; -0.10; optionable): Education and training. Splits 2:1 on 3-4-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Pre-split. Rallied over 64 Friday but with lower volume it could not hold the move. It is trying to form up a triangle, but it is not there yet. Volatile, but if we get some good volume on a further move we will start a position and then see how strong it is when it breaks over 65.
Volume: 666.514K Avg Volume: 1.067M
BUY POINT: $63.65 Volume=1.6M Target=$70 Stop=$60.75
POSITION: UCS EL - May $60c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 02/28/2004
DCOM (Dime Community Bancshares--$31.96; +0.26; no options): Savings & loan. Splits 3:2 on 3-19-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcom.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume continued to look very good as DCOM moves toward the breakout from its 13 week base formed over the 50 day MVA (30.74). Strong 4 to 1 accumulation is setting the foundation for the breakout as it shows money moving into the stock. Money flow continues higher and we are waiting for DCOM to make the break over the resistance in the pattern to move in.
Volume: 186.527K Avg Volume: 133.043K
BUY POINT: $32.17 Volume=200K Target=$37 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dcom.html
Play Date: 02/28/2004
EXC (Exelon--$67.68; +0.74; optionable): Utilities. Splits 2:1 on 3-11-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Flat base. EXCE is making the breakout move from its 9 week base, and though volume was higher Friday, it was still well below average. Money flow is surging ahead of the stock and we are looking to move in on a bit more volume. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 959.9K Avg Volume: 1.101M
BUY POINT: $67.38 Volume=1.2M Target=$71.38 Stop=$65.88
POSITION: EXC GM - July $65c (77 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exc.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 03/02/2004
JEF (Jeffries Group--$38.51; +0.39; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jef.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Wanted to see more volume on the Friday move as JEF started higher. Not bad and we could have taken some positions. Looks very good for a furter move with solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) in the 7 week base and money flow shooting higher ahead of the stock. Ready to step in.
Volume: 444.9K Avg Volume: 321.765K
BUY POINT: New: $38.76 (orig. $38.38) Volume=600K Target=$44 Stop=$36.97
POSITION: JEF GH - July $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jef.html
Play Date: 03/04/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$15.95; -0.41; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Friday volume dropped off as MSCC showed a nice, tight doji on the candlestick pattern, holding the 18 day MVA (15.66) on the low and rebounding to close at the 10 day (15.89). Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the 7 week base that is showing solid money flow. Being patient and waiting for the strong break higher.
Volume: 368.516K Avg Volume: 315.562K
BUY POINT: $16.55 Volume=700K Target=$19.92 Stop=$15.52
POSITION: QMS FC - June $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
Play Date: 01/24/2004
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$44; +0.07; optionable): Farm and ranch depot.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still edging toward the breakout though volume continues at a well below average pace. It has rallied to some resistance at 44 in its 4 month reverse H&S pattern, the same type of pattern that launched TSCO higher out of the 2003 consolidation. Accumulation is decent at 3 to 1, and its formation over the 50 day MVA (41.88) is another good sign of institutional support. Being as patient as possible as we wait for a high volume breakout.
Volume: 156.294K Avg Volume: 437.849K
BUY POINT: $44.55 Volume=719K Target=$55 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: QTF GI - July $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
Play Date: 03/04/2004
YAKC (Yak Communications--$15.60; +0.23; no options): Foreign Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yakc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. After some nice volume Thursday, trade backed off to close the week, and YAKC found it hard to hang onto the Friday bounce higher. Still in good shape, but want to see more volume as it continues its break higher off of key support at the 50 day MVA (13.39) YAKC surged after its split and then fell to the 50 day in late February. Volume backed off as it moved laterally along that level, and then started to swell toward the end of the week. A great momentum stock, and it can give us a great return without even moving up to the prior high at 20.
Volume: 99.088K Avg Volume: 76.942K
BUY POINT: $15.75 Volume=150K Target=$19.65 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yakc.html
End part 2 of 3
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