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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Tuesday: BRL; CLZR; VIP; HUM
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits: These are momentum plays where we look to jump on when it makes the move, grab some gain, and when it starts to falter, take the money. We often use options in order to leverage the smaller price movements we look for on these plays.
Play Date: 03/09/2004
IDSA (Industrial Services of America--$33.97; +2.31; no options): Waste management. Splits 2:1 on 3/31/04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idsa.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. And a massive breakout it was, running from 5 to 45 in three weeks. It peaked there and then started back this month on mostly lower volume, coming back to blow off some froth and take a breather. It has held at the 10 day MVA (30.99) and started to bounce on a big surge in volume Tuesday. Money flow is strong, and has turned higher already as the stock starts back up. Expecting a quick bounce and want to climb on and see if it takes us back to 45.
Volume: 2.063M Avg Volume: 695.681K
BUY POINT: $34.48 Volume=2M Target=$44.55 Stop=$31.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idsa.html
Play Date: 03/09/2004
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$107.74; -0.08; optionable): Wireless telecom. Splits 3:1 on 3-23-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. NIHD just broke out from a short 7 week base that followed the breakout from 2 month base spanning November and December. A very flat, tight move over the 10 day MVA (106.67) on low, below average volume. No one is selling even as the overall market pulls back. When the 10 day MVA rises to meet a stock in this kind of lateral pattern that often sends the stock back up.
Volume: 151.738K Avg Volume: 369.549K
BUY POINT: $110.25 Volume=554K Target=$120.35 Stop=$105
POSITION: QHQ FC - June $115c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nihd.html
New Leader Plays: May or may not turn into split candidates, but good patterns ready to move.
Play Date: 03/09/2004
CEGE (Cell Genesys--$14.77; +0.17; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cege.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another stock that broke out on strong volume coming back to test the move on some low volume. Like the low volume tests as they show few sellers; most want to hold onto the stock they bought during the base and on the breakout. Nice 6 month base that formed at the 50 day MVA (13.84), a sign of solid support. Strong 7 to 3 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), a good foundation for the breakout and run higher. Strong money flow is a good kicker on the pattern. Again, looking for higher, above average volume up through the buy point.
Volume: 468.501K Avg Volume: 462.318K
BUY POINT: $15.28 Volume=750K Target=$18 Stop=$14.28
POSITION: UCG GC - July $15c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cege.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/02/2004
NUS (Nu Skin--$21.15; +0.53; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NUS shot higher last week, breaking out from a 7 week base on solid trade. It has eased back to the 10 day MVA (20.50) on the Tuesday low and then started to rebound on rising though still below average volume. Money flow continues to lead higher even as the stock pulled back. Solid accumulation and the base formed over the 50 day MVA (19.18). Looks ready to go again and give the next buy point.
Volume: 286.1K Avg Volume: 313.59K
BUY POINT: New: $21.38 (orig. $21.08) Volume=455K Target=$25.15 Stop=$19.91
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nus.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04.
BCR: Researching next date.
BMET: 3-17-04
CAKE: 4-19-04
CDWC: Researching the next date. Very nice test.
CHS: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close. No split announced but still like the position and the action as it tests with a nice lateral move.
ELAB: Researching next date.
HUG: Forecast 3-9-04. No announcement after hours with earnings but solid trade and a dividend jump.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LOW: Forecast in the May shareholder meeting.
LXK: Researching next date.
MBG: Forecast 3-4-04 before the open. No announcement but exploded higher and now making a nice test.
MBT: Researching date. Still moving higher.
MIK: No split 3-3-04. Still a nice pattern shaping up.
NCEN: Working on the exact date.
NMGA: No 3-3-04 split announcement. Testing the break higher with a nice lateral move.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SHFL: Researching next date.
SONC: Forecast 3-15-04.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
TOL: No split with the board meeting on 3-2 but no complaints. Testing the breakout with a nice lateral move.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04. Still moving higher.
WFMI: Researching next date. Nice 18 day MVA test.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/09/2004
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$38.68; -0.26; optionable): Restaurants. Forecast to announce a split on 4-20-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Next shareholder meeting is scheduled for 11-4-2004. Last shareholder meeting was on 11-13.03 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
BACGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in late 2000 at a price of $38.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Test 10 day MVA. EAT broke out from a 7.5 month base in February and has rallied up above the 10 day MVA (38.26). It has come back to make its second test of that level after the breakout. Stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 day after a breakout as part of the breakout run. Thus there is still plenty of upside on this breakout move. It has come back to test he 10 day on lighter, below average volume, just as you want to see as that shows no real sellers. Looking for a bounce up off of this level on once again above average volume to start positions on the play.
Volume: 568.5K Avg Volume: 799.454K
BUY POINT: $39.06 Volume=950K Target=$46.88 Stop=$37.88
POSITION: EAT GG - July $35c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Play Date: 03/09/2004
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$69.42; +1.62; optionable): Medical equipment
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume has jumped back above average the past three sessions as PDCO moves off the 50 day MVA (66.28) and toward the breakout from the current 4 month flat base. Flat with a big dip in early 2004, but it rebounded right back up into the range. Showing very good action here and looking for a breakout on strong volume to move in.
Volume: 638.6K Avg Volume: 485K
BUY POINT: $70.12 Volume=759K Target=$81 Stop=$66.65
POSITION: DOU GN - July $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/17/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$94.72; +0.70; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. Forecast to announce a split in late April in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split around 1-22-00 at a stock price of $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Flat base. BCR is moving laterally below 95 and over the 18 day MVA (93.76). the 5 week move is showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation, and up to Tuesday has been moving on mostly below average volume. Tuesday volume surged back above average as it moved off the 18 day MVA. The volume spike is something that can be telling us to get ready for a break higher, hence we call it a 'get ready' spike. Want to see a strong move through the buy point on volume to add to positions.
Volume: 387.3K Avg Volume: 352.909K
BUY POINT: New: $95.55 (orig. $80.93) Volume=500K Target=New positions: $110 (orig. $92.95) Stop=$93.38
POSITION: BCR GS - July $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
CDWC (CDW Computer Centers--$71.18 -0.29; optionable): Wholesale computers. Still trying to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter before the bear market plunge, CDWC has finally fought back up to the $70 level where it announced regular splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdwc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in a very nice breakout test, holding over the 10 day MVA (70.89) on continued below average volume. This is very good action as the rest of the market sells harder. Nice moves as CDWC broke higher out of a base on base pattern (flat base October to December and then another one mid-January through February). It exploded higher to start the month and has eased back on lower volume, showing few sellers. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) in the last base, setting a good foundation for the breakout and run higher. Money flow has continued to move up ahead of the stock as it has pulled back to test the breakout move. Solid, and just looking for a good, above average volume move on the jump higher to enter positions.
Volume: 805.178K Avg Volume: 1.266M
BUY POINT: $72.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$82 Stop=$70.35
POSITION: DWQ GN - July $70c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdwc.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
NCEN (New Century Financial--$49.99; -0.69; optionable): Mortgage investment. Pinpointing an announcement date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in May 2003 at a price of $42.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncen.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still testing the move from the Friday break higher on the jobs report when interest rates tanked. Friday NCEN surged out of a 7 week triangle, gapping higher and running on strong trade. Accumulation in the short pattern is a strong 3 to 1, showing that money was moving in during the lateral move. A good, low volume test in the overall higher volume market selling. Looking for it to hold near the 10 day MVA (49.42) and then provide a higher volume move back up to continue the breakout.
Volume: 961.091K Avg Volume: 927.681K
BUY POINT: $51.52 Volume=1.2M Target=$61 Stop=$48.24
POSITION: URE HJ - Aug. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncen.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 02/17/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$79.05; +1.32; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 3:2 on 3-16
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Good move Friday, and after a Monday pause on lower volume BRL was heading back up Tuesday, and doing it on strong volume. Very strong, showing money really running to it as the rest of the market sold. Not too late to get in on the move.
Volume: 908.1K Avg Volume: 743.363K
BUY POINT: New: $79.38 (orig. $78.22) Volume=700K Target=$85.75 Stop=$76.22
POSITION: BRL EP - May $80c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 02/26/2004
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$58.22; -0.44; optionable): Sporting goods. Splits 2:1 on 4-6-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume was light on the last bounce, but DKS is giving us another chance, coming back to test the 18 day MVA (57.50) on very low, below average volume. Looking for it to hold the 18 day MVA and then rebound on stronger volume to give us a good entry point for the run.
Volume: 209.2K Avg Volume: 287.136K
BUY POINT: $58.78 Volume=400K Target=$67 Stop=$57.25
POSITION: DKS FL - June $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 03/06/2004
EBAY (Ebay--$70.09; +0.26; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Flat base. Jumped sharply Monday but gave most of the move back. Managed to gather itself Tuesday, and started back up on lower though still above average volume. Not bad action at all in this market. On a continued move higher on solid volume it is another buy point. From December to January it has formed the current 7 week flat base over the 18 day MVA (68.46) on very low, below average volume.
Volume: 8.586M Avg Volume: 6.653M
BUY POINT: New: $70.42 (orig. $70.12) Volume=10M Target=$80.25 Stop=$67.75
POSITION: XBA GN - July $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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