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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Wednesday: BCR; SOX; HUM
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
Downside:
Play Date: 03/10/2004
AZO (Autozone--$84.46; -1.24; optionable): Auto parts stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
STATUS: Put. AZO gapped below the 200 day MVA (86.80) 6 sessions back on strong trade. It has made a low volume rally back up to test, coming back to the 10 day MVA (86.17) on the Wednesday high. It fell from there, starting lower as volume moved back up to average. Classic low volume test of the breakdown, and we are looking to pick it up on a further move lower from here.
Volume: 969.9K Avg Volume: 970K
BUY POINT: $84.32 Volume=1.1M Target=$81.28 Stop=$86.22
POSITION: AZO PQ - Apr. $85p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/azo.htm
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/19/2004
INTL (Inter-Tel--$29.98; -0.02; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. INTL continues to hold up very well, moving laterally along the 18 day MVA (30.01) on mostly below average volume. Trade jumped close to average Wednesday as it showed a nice, tight doji at the 18 day. That can signal that it is ready to end the lateral move and continue the breakout. Excellent money flow is still leading the way higher, and we want INTL to continue to follow the money and continue the breakout higher.
Volume: 332.115K Avg Volume: 301.545K
BUY POINT: $31.12 Volume=458K Target=$35.88 Stop=$29.05
POSITION: TPQ GF - July $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/intl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/17/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$96.87; +2.15; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. Forecast to announce a split in late April in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split around 1-22-00 at a stock price of $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Flat base. Making the break higher out of the 6 week lateral consolidation as volume surges. Nice gain in a down market as relative strength breaks out again. Still a buy on this move as it runs through the early March high (97.28).
Volume: 711.9K Avg Volume: 352.318K
BUY POINT: New: $97.38 (orig. $80.93) Volume=500K Target=New positions: $110 (orig. $92.95) Stop=$93.38
POSITION: BCR GS - July $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 03/09/2004
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$69.80; +0.38; optionable): Medical equipment
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume is again surging as PDCO starts toward the breakout. It is looking strong in a weak market, ready to make the breakout from its 4 month lateral base.
Volume: 1.068M Avg Volume: 458.272K
BUY POINT: $70.12 Volume=759K Target=$81 Stop=$66.65
POSITION: DOU GN - July $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
PRE-SPLITS
These are momentum plays where we look to jump on when it makes the move, grab some gain, and when it starts to falter, take the money. We often use options in order to leverage the smaller price movements we look for on these plays.
Play Date: 03/09/2004
IDSA (Industrial Services of America--$32.2; -1.77; no options): Waste management. Splits 2:1 on 3/31/04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idsa.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Gave back some of the Tuesday move as IDSA tried to break back higher off of the 10 day MVA (31.21). Volume backed off to just below average as it tested the 10 day again and held up well. Still looks very good and ready to head back up. Just needs a better market.
Volume: 835.693K Avg Volume: 737.045K
BUY POINT: $34.48 Volume=2M Target=$44.55 Stop=$31.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idsa.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABGX 03/03 Cup hdl 14.31 -0.69 16.58 19.88 1.5M 2M 15.42
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move down on rising, but still below average volume holding below the 50 day MVA. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep an eye on it.
AGN 01/13 Cup hdl 87.82 -0.87 84.46 94 405K 1.2M 87.21
Current.
ALVR 03/01 A Wedge 14.81 +0.3 15.59 18.48 2.2M 1.2M 15.62
Current.
APOL 01/24 Test 18 80.1 -0.67 73.25 82 2.5M 3M 77.35
APOL 12/01 DB hdl 80.1 -0.67 70.72 82 2.5M 2.9M 77.35
Current.
APOL 11/22 DB hdl 80.1 -0.67 66.54 82 2.5M 2.9M 77.35
Current.
ATVI 02/24 Test BO 20.77 -0.26 20.65 23.75 939K 2.3M 19.88
Buy Not Issued.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 96.87 +2.15 80.93 92.95 712K 500K 93.38
Current.
BMET 02/28 Test 50 37.66 -0.39 40.22 47 1.7M 2M 38.88
Buy Not Hit.
BR 02/28 Test 50 59.89 -0.86 59.88 63.78 1.4M 1.5M 60.12
Current.
BRL 02/17 DB hdl 73.9 -5.15 78.22 85.75 3.3M 700K 76.22
Exited. Shocked everyone saying the entire year would be lower
than expected. It did not help that a rivals drug
was proved better in a comparison test.
BRNC 02/05 A Wedge 2.7 -0.35 3.55 4.65 124K 112K 3.24
Exited.
CAKE 02/28 BO 47.73 -0.86 48.35 56 473K 650K 47.35
Current.
CALM 01/29 Cup hdl 37.18 +0.22 36.62 43.75 340K 650K 37.05
Current.
CDWC 03/06 Test BO 69.43 -1.75 72.55 82 1.4M 1.2M 70.35
Buy Not Hit.
CEC 02/21 Cup hdl 56.82 0 52.44 57.35 259K 272K 56.65
Current.
CEGE 03/09 Test BO 14.22 -0.55 15.28 18 490K 750K 14.28
Buy Not Hit.
CENT 01/22 Test BO 36.08 -0.63 33.05 39 58K 200K 35.68
Current.
CHS 02/24 Test BO 45.5 -0.7 42.68 49 1.4M 1.1M 45.94
CHT 01/22 Cup hdl 17.4 -0.25 15.75 18.92 458K 1.1M 16.88
Current.
CHU 02/23 Test BO 11.33 -0.79 12.88 15.45 1.4M 800K 11.98
Buy Not Issued.
CLKS 02/26 Cup hdl 2.56 -0.05 2.57 3.22 136K 301K 2.48
Current.
COCO 03/04 PreSplt 59.39 -1.51 63.65 70 995K 1.6M 60.75
Buy Not Issued.
COH 02/28 DB hdl 41.04 -1.03 41.66 47.88 1.5M 2.5M 40.96
Current.
DCOM 02/28 Flat 30.83 -0.25 32.17 37 108K 200K 30.45
Buy Not Hit.
DKS 02/26 Test BO 57.22 -1 58.78 67 424K 400K 57.25
Buy Not Issued.
DNA 01/03 Test BO 107.5 -1.6 95.44 102 3.7M 3M 109.94
Current.
DVA 01/21 A Wedge 44.84 -0.51 40.12 46 342K 504K 44.68
Current.
EAR 02/14 Dbl btm 2.51 0 2.64 3.22 162K 601K 2.64
Current.
EAT 03/09 Test BO 38.26 -0.42 39.06 46.88 669K 950K 37.88
Buy Not Hit.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 68.47 -1.62 71.78 82.25 9M 10M 68.15
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 68.47 -1.62 53.78 60 9M 9M 67.48
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 68.47 -1.62 40.04 46 9M 8M 67.48
Current.
ECOL 03/02 Dbl btm 7.36 -0.05 8.38 10.12 44K 150K 7.79
Buy Not Hit.
ENCY 03/08 Cup 9.12 -0.7 10.78 12.95 310K 917K 9.94
Buy Not Hit.
EVCI 02/18 Test BO 9.5 -0.69 8.68 10.39 136K 228K 10.04
Current.
EXC 02/28 Flat 67.83 -0.52 67.38 71.38 1.2M 1.2M 65.88
Buy Not Issued.
FOSL 01/20 DB hdl 33 -0.3 31.95 37 183K 300K 32.96
Trailing Stop.
HUG 03/02 Flat 51.18 +0.93 50.62 58.25 683K 314K 48.42
Buy Not Issued.
IDCC 02/14 Cup hdl 19.05 -5.55 26.79 32.32 8M 935K 26.15
Exited. Disappointing earnings killed it and put a wet blanket
on the entire sector.
IDSA 03/09 Test BO 32.2 -1.77 34.48 44.55 835K 2M 31.94
Buy Not Issued.
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 49.7 -1.31 50.22 58 97K 500K 49.94
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 40.55 -0.7 29.05 34.55 2.5M 4.7M 40.38
Current.
INTL 02/19 Test BO 29.98 -0.02 31.12 35.88 330K 458K 29.05
Buy Not Issued.
INTV 03/08 Flat 14.4 +0.84 13.91 16.85 1.8M 500K 12.85
Current.
JEF 03/02 Flat 37.16 -0.81 38.38 44 456K 600K 36.97
Buy Not Issued.
LM 02/07 FlyPlat 90.69 -1.76 92.24 102 324K 550K 92.92
Current.
LOW 02/21 Cup hdl 54.01 -0.57 58.75 67.55 3.3M 5.2M 56.75
Buy Not Hit.
LXK 12/30 Rv H&S 81.97 +0.9 83.65 94 1M 2M 80.92
Current.
MBG 11/18 Cup hdl 53.95 -0.95 44.3 53 1.2M 1.8M 52.62
Current.
MBT 01/03 Cup 109.6 -7.04 88.39 99.95 367K 412K 108.65
Current.
MICC 03/04 FlyPlat 20 -0.79 23.05 27.68 322K 550K 21.44
Buy Not Issued.
MIK 02/21 Cup hdl 47.04 -0.92 48.44 55.72 395K 815K 46.22
Buy Not Issued.
MSCC 03/04 A Wedge 14.72 -0.29 16.55 19.92 631K 700K 15.52
Buy Not Hit.
MVIS 02/11 Cup 9.5 -0.39 9.15 11 228K 200K 9.98
Current. It held support at 9.50, recovering from the lows,
but after the close was falling again on earnings.
NCEN 03/06 A Wedge 49.3 -0.69 51.52 61 1.1M 1.2M 48.24
Buy Not Issued.
NIHD 03/09 Test BO 105.91 -1.83 110.25 120.35 234K 554K 105
Buy Not Hit.
NMGA 01/24 A Wedge 56.65 -1.93 55.39 63.75 219K 254K 57.22
NUS 03/02 Test 50 20.34 -0.81 21.08 25.15 294K 455K 19.91
Current.
ORLY 02/24 DB hdl 39.05 -0.05 41.81 48 277K 421K 40.25
Buy Not Hit.
OSI 02/07 Test 50 48.26 -0.55 48.68 51.96 366K 650K 47.68
Current.
PDCO 03/09 Flat 69.8 +0.38 70.12 81 954K 759K 66.65
Buy Not Issued.
PRFT 02/14 Test BO 4 -0.04 4.38 5.48 100K 229K 4.07
Buy Not Hit.
PSUN 03/06 Test 50 23.05 -0.34 25.04 30 794K 2.4M 24.15
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 02/25 Test BO 63.5 -0.25 63.03 72 10M 11M 61.15
Current.
RJF 02/17 Dbl btm 37.24 -0.51 39.62 44.55 118K 304K 37.95
Buy Not Hit.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 37.83 +0.3 30.35 36.75 4.2M 6M 37.32
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 37.83 +0.3 26.3 30.94 4.2M 6M 37.32
Current.
SLAB 01/31 Cup hdl 52.91 -2.76 51.12 58 1.4M 1.9M 55.38
Current.
SONC 01/10 Test BO 35.04 -0.69 33.68 41 177K 562K 35.12
Buy Not Issued.
SPAB 02/10 A Wedge 4.1 +0.05 3.49 4.35 292K 451K 3.96
Current.
STJ 01/13 Cup hdl 75.7 -0.55 64.68 75 2.2M 2.2M 73.38
Current.
SYK 12/29 A Wedge 90.74 -1.05 88.75 100 511K 745K 89.11
Current.
SYMC 02/05 FlyPlat 41.63 -1.61 40.94 46.88 6.5M 6M 41.22
Current.
TASR 02/10 Test BO 53.39 -1.56 45.88 54.55 4.1M 1M 53.45
Current.
TOL 01/27 Cup hdl 45.35 -0.83 42.71 51 1.3M 1.2M 44.68
Current.
TSCO 01/24 Cup 42.11 -0.42 45.22 55 317K 719K 42.05
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 42.11 -0.42 28.06 31.44 317K 494K 42.65
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 42.11 -0.42 26.62 30 317K 500K 42.65
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 42.11 -0.42 23.42 27.62 317K 603K 42.65
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 42.11 -0.42 21.88 26 317K 603K 42.65
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 42.11 -0.42 19.3 22.19 317K 577K 42.65
Current.
TTI 03/02 Test 50 26.25 -0.8 27.22 31.55 192K 193K 25.64
Buy Not Issued.
TTP 03/01 Test 50 5.31 -0.08 4.59 5.55 458K 342K 4.48
Current.
ULTI 02/09 Cup hdl 12.85 -0.1 11.38 13.62 60K 120K 12.66
Current.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 80.54 -0.51 71.12 84 171K 315K 80.55
Current.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 80.54 -0.51 68.95 82 171K 315K 80.55
Current.
VAPH 02/24 Test BO 8.33 -3.13 9.68 11.67 2.7M 850K 10.88
Exited. Took the rest of the position off the table as it broke
the 18 day MVA.
VAR 03/03 Flat 86.5 -0.51 88.11 100 343K 750K 84.48
Current.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 86.5 -0.51 64.5 74.25 343K 1.1M 84.48
Current.
VIP 01/03 Test BO 91 -3.3 73.34 85 642K 615K 85.48
Current.
WRLS 02/19 A Wedge 15.64 -1.19 16.45 19.45 1.2M 300K 16.45
Current.
YAKC 03/04 Test 50 15.57 -2.09 15.75 19.65 309K 150K 14.65
Buy Not Issued.
ZBRA 03/06 BO 69.75 -1.99 72.92 84 410K 517K 70.24
Buy Not Hit.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 02/23 H&S 476.29 -10.08 492.24 475 0 0 488
Current. Going to let it test 475 again and see if it breaks that support.
HUM 02/04 Put 20.9 -0.21 21.65 20 564K 1.9M 21.94
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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