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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
Good movers Friday: LXK; UOPX; APOL
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits: These are momentum plays where we look to jump on when it makes the move, grab some gain, and when it starts to falter, take the money. We often use options in order to leverage the smaller price movements we look for on these plays.
Play Date: 03/13/2004
CLZR (Canela--$27.00; +1.80; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 3-17-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clzr.html
STATUS: Cup. We gave up a bit too early on this one. It surged off the 18 day MVA (24.16) Tuesday, then rolled over and fell to the 10 day MVA (24.95) Thursday. It held fast, however, and started back up Friday. Would like to see more volume (trade fell below average Friday) as it continues the move. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 201.3K Avg Volume: 205K
BUY POINT: $27.42 Volume=308K Target=$32 Stop=$25.72
POSITION: UKZ EE - May $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clzr.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
DNA (Genentech--$107.7o; +1.67; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Test breakout. DNA is one of the leaders in cancer drugs, and it continues to build in more and more gain as anticipation of major, major profits continues. After a strong breakout run to 114, DNA made a nice test back to the 18 day MVA (105.01). It held and started higher Friday on rising, above average volume. Money flow is already starting back up and relative strength is excellent. Looking for another high volume move to take additional positions.
Volume: 3.853M Avg Volume: 2.513M
BUY POINT: $108.12 Volume=4M Target=$118 Stop=$104.95
POSITION: DNA FT - June $110c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dna.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
FOSL (Fossil--$33.50; +1.43; optionable): Watches, accessories, etc. Splits 3:2 on 4-9-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. FOSL exploded out of a 6 month flat base in late February, rallying to 35 in a tremendous surge. It has spent the past two weeks coming back to test the move, holding at near support on the 18 day MVA (32.41). Volume was low on the pullback until the end of the week when it hit support and rebounded. Excellent money flow leading higher and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 299.062K Avg Volume: 228.468K
BUY POINT: $33.82 Volume=310K Target=$39 Stop=$32.35
POSITION: FUA FF - June $30c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
PG (Procter & Gamble--$104.12; +0.17; optionable): Consumer products. Splits 2:1 on 6-21-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Announced a dividend increase, increased earnings guidance, and set a split three sessions back and gapped higher. Friday it filled that gap with a doji with a long tail that tapped the 18 day MVA (102.95) on the low and then rebounded for a gain. Looks ready to continue the breakout move after filling the gap and showing that doji.
Volume: 3.694M Avg Volume: 3.312M
BUY POINT: $104.92 Volume=4.2M Target=$115 Stop=$103.25
POSITION: PG GA - July $105c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pg.html
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 03/13/2004
HAR (Harman Intl.--$77.80; +3.10; optionable): High end auto electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. HAR made us some very good money last year as it moved before the announcement and surged again after the announcement. After that strong run it needed some rest, and it has taken a breather the past 8 weeks. It came back Thursday to test the 50 day MVA (74.89), undercutting it and rallying back on strong, above average volume. Friday it continued the move off that level. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the lateral move. Just want to see volume on the move through the buy point as this one can run like the wind when it gets going.
Volume: 636K Avg Volume: 588.678K
BUY POINT: $78.35 Volume=883K Target=$90 Stop=$76.96
POSITION: HAR GP - July $80c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$39.15; +2.59; no options): Apparel.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
STATUS: Test breakout. JOSB surged out of an 18 week cup base in late February, rallying close to 40. It made its first real test of that move last week, dropping back to the 10 day MVA (36.55). It held that level and the jumped higher Friday. JOSB has reported a solid jump in sales, and we think that is attributable to some improved job conditions. Looking to start a position on a continued move on stronger trade.
Volume: 492.815K Avg Volume: 249.339K
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=500K Target=$45.45 Stop=$36.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04.
BCR: Researching next date.
BMET: 3-17-04
CAKE: 4-19-04
CDWC: Researching the next date.
CHS: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close. No split announced. Nice pullback after the break higher.
ELAB: Researching next date.
HUG: Forecast 3-9-04. No announcement but continuing that nice move higher.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LOW: Forecast in the May shareholder meeting.
LXK: Researching next date.
MBG: No split on 3-4-04. Has come back to fully test the break higher and now trying to bounce.
MBT: Researching date.
NCEN: Forecast 3-17 or on 4-15.
NMGA: No 3-3-04 split announcement. 50 day MVA test.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SHFL: Researching next date.
SONC: Forecast 3-15-04.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
STN: Forecast 4-20-04 before the open.
TOL: No split with the board meeting on 3-2 but no complaints. Looks ready to move back up after an 18 day MVA test.
UOPX: Researching a date but could come this week. Announced earnings to end the week and surged on that news.
VAR: VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Researching next date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/13/2004
APPB (Applebees Intl.--$40.16; +0.21; optionable): Fern bar restaurant. Forecast to announce a split on 4-28-04 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings or in the alternative in May in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-9-02 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting at a stock price at $39.84. The shareholder meeting was on 5-8-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Many restaurants are enjoying strong sales and good chart patterns, somewhat flying in the face of the idea that the consumer is losing steam. APPB is testing a breakout move from its 4 month flat base that formed over the 50 day MVA (39.01). A nice break higher on a big volume spike to end February took it to 42, and in the market selling it drifted back to the 18 day MVA (40.07) on very low, below average volume. Low volume shows not many wanting to sell the stock. That typically bodes well for a rebound. Wanting to see volume bounce as the stock continues the breakout move after this test.
Volume: 284.969K Avg Volume: 492.765K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=739K Target=$46.78 Stop=$39.35
POSITION: AQB HH - Aug. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appb.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$70.29; +2.29; optionable): PC peripherals. Forecast to announce a split on 4-27-04 in conjunction with a board of director meeting or on 4-28-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-24-03 at a stock price of $76.5. The annual shareholder meeting will be on 6-3-04. Information on the time is not available at this time. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Volatile the past 7 weeks, but still trending higher and holding the 50 day MVA (67.31) as the market broke down last week. ZBRA rallied to 72 to start the month, tried to move through, but could not make further headway. It came back to the 50 day, but volume was lower, indicating investors were not dumping the stock. Money flow is moving up ahead of the stock during this pullback, and relative strength is ready to make a breakout as ZBRA bounces up off the 50 day on rising, above average volume. Want to see volume continue to build as the stock moves through the buy point.
Volume: 428.737K Avg Volume: 356.744K
BUY POINT: $70.88 Volume=517K Target=$84 Stop=$69.42
POSITION: ZBQ HN - Aug. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/09/2004
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$38.2; +0.29; optionable): Restaurants. Forecast to announce a split on 4-20-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Next shareholder meeting is scheduled for 11-4-2004. Last shareholder meeting was on 11-13.03 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
BACGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in late 2000 at a price of $38.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. EAT held the 18 day MVA (37.79) on the Friday close, recovering from undercutting that level on rising, average trade. Nice test of the breakout from its 7.5 month base. As noted before, stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 day after a breakout as part of the breakout run. That leaves still plenty of upside on this breakout move, but we want to see the volume kick in as EAT resumes the bounce higher.
Volume: 811.7K Avg Volume: 847.526K
BUY POINT: $39.06 Volume=950K Target=$46.88 Stop=$37.88
POSITION: EAT GG - July $35c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
NCEN (New Century Financial--$49.36; -0.07; optionable): Mortgage investment. Forecast to announce a split 3-17 in conjunction with a board meeting or 4-15 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in May 2003 at a price of $42.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncen.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still working in the 7 week pattern showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. It is making its last pullback in the pattern, holding the 18 day MVA (48.92) on the low. Looking for NCEN to make a strong break through the buy point.
Volume: 662.422K Avg Volume: 1.042M
BUY POINT: $51.52 Volume=1.2M Target=$61 Stop=$48.24
POSITION: URE HJ - Aug. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncen.html
Play Date: 02/07/2004
OSI (Outback Steakhouse--$48.52; +1.08; optionable): Aussie knock-off steakhouse. Forecast to announce a split on 4-15-04 in conjunction with earnings or at its shareholder meeting in the last week of April.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in November 1991 at approximately $26. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice breakout to end February as OSI shot out of an 11 week cup with handle base that formed over the 50 day MVA (45.79), a sign of solid support for the stock. Solid volume breakout and a nice low volume pullback to the 18 day MVA (47.57) shows very few are interested in selling their positions. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), indicating money has moved into the stock during the base. Friday OSI was bouncing higher off the 18 day MVA (47.57) as volume moved back up to average. Solid action and looking to pick it up on the rebound if volume can continue to rise.
Volume: 502.8K Avg Volume: 522.889K
BUY POINT: $48.68 Volume=650K Target=$51.96 Stop=$47.68
POSITION: OSI HI - Aug. $45c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osi.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$35.84; +0.83; optionable): Burgers. Forecast to announce a split 3-15-04.
BACKGROUND: SONC last announced a 3:2 split 1-17-02 at its annual shareholder meeting with a stock price of $36.30. A frequent splitter announce roughly every 2 years.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another stock that has come back to test near support in the market selling. SONC opened held the 18 day MVA (35.07) late last week and bounced Friday. Volume, however, was too low, still holding well below average as the stock bounced. Nice test of the breakout from its 7 week lateral base. Money flow remains very strong and relative strength is making the breakout already, a very bullish indication.
Volume: 151.708K Avg Volume: 264.46K
BUY POINT: New: $36.15 (orig. $33.68) Volume=562K Target=$41 Stop=$35.12
POSITION: ZSQ FF - June $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
STN (Station Casinos--$39.88; +0.58; optionable): Resorts and casinos. Forecast to announce a split on 4-20-04 before the market opens on in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in June 2000 at a stock price of approximately around $15. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stn.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice doji on the 10 day MVA (39.18) Thursday, and bounced Friday but on lower trade. Making the second bounce off of near support after a January breakout from its 13 week cup with handle base. Excellent money flow and relative strength holding up well. Just looking for another strong volume bounce from here to move in.
Volume: 404.5K Avg Volume: 373.514K
BUY POINT: $39.66 Volume=550K Target=$45.75 Stop=$38.08
POSITION: STN GH - July $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stn.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 02/28/2004
BR (Burlington Resources--$59.91; +0.88; optionable): Oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on 6-2-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/br.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Came back to test the 18 day MVA on lower volume as the market sold off hard. It held near support at the 18 day MVA (58.96) and started to rebound Friday though volume was lower. Just looking for volume to kick up some as it moves through 60.
Volume: 1.119M Avg Volume: 1.516M
BUY POINT: New: $60.12 (orig. $59.88) Volume=1.5M Target=$65 Stop=$60.12
POSITION: BR EK - May $55c (84 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/br.html
Play Date: 02/28/2004
DCOM (Dime Community Bancshares--$31.58; +0.41; no options): Savings and loan. Splits 3:2 on 3-17-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcom.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume has started to surge higher the past two sessions, rallying taking off Friday as DCOM holds and tries to make the break off of the 50 day MVA (30.81). A nice flat 14 week base, and now money flow is surging higher ahead of the stock. It finally looks ready to make its move.
Volume: 290.928K Avg Volume: 140.014K
BUY POINT: $32.17 Volume=200K Target=$37 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dcom.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
HOV (Hovnanian Enterprises--$88.5; +0.94; optionable): Residential construction. Splits 3:2 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hov.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 14 week base showing positive 3 to 2 accumulation. Volume has remained below average just as it should as HOV pulled back and tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (85.87) and rebounded for a solid gain. Looking for that volume to jump as it continues higher and moves to the breakout.
Volume: 732.8K Avg Volume: 984.326K
BUY POINT: $88.75 Volume=1.4M Target=$99 Stop=$85.22
POSITION: HOV ER - May $90c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hov.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
XTO (XTO Energy--$30.97; +0.17; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 5:4 on 3-18-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Showing a nice doji right on top of the 10 day MVA (30.80) on continued low, below average volume. This test follows a solid volume rally off the 50 day MVA (28.50) to end February. Continues to look solid and just want ot see volume spike up as it starts up off this level.
Volume: 866.5K Avg Volume: 1.18M
BUY POINT: $31.25 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.28 Stop=$30.65
POSITION: XTO EF - May $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 03/06/2004
EBAY (Ebay--$69.13; +1.69; optionable): Internet auctions.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still working through the 7 week flat base, and now the 50 day MVA (66.50) has come up to meet the stock, and that will often start the next move higher. Excellent money flow and relative strength is already moving toward the breakout, indicating that EBAY is outperforming most of the market. Just want to see a high volume breakout.
Volume: 6.171M Avg Volume: 7.26M
BUY POINT: $71.78 Volume=10M Target=$82.25 Stop=$68.15
POSITION: xba gn - July $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 03/02/2004
TTI (Tetra Technologies--$27.35; +0.90; no options): Oil and gas fluid services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tti.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. TTI is showing signs it is ready to try a breakout from its 10 week pattern that formed using the 50 day MVA (25.53) as support. Friday it made a nice price jump off of the 18 day MVA (26.37) though it could not attract any volume. Looks good, and if we get the volume on the move higher it is time to enter.
Volume: 110.6K Avg Volume: 142.755K
BUY POINT: New: $27.78 (orig. $27.22) Volume=193K Target=$31.55 Stop=$25.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tti.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
top stock pick
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