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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Weekend play results:
FOSL: Low volume test of 10 day MVA.
OMNI: Nice break higher on huge trade.
RATE: Still in a nice handle to a nice base.
STG: Gapped higher but could not hold the move.
WIND: Still testing, holding the 18 day MVA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/15/2004
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$33.79; -1.00; no options): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GLDN surged out of a 6.5 month cup with handle base to start the month, rallying to 37.50 on strong trade. Accumulation in the pattern was solid at 5 to 3 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows money moving into the stock during the pattern. In the recent selling GLDN has come back to test the breakout, holding over the 18 day MVA (33.66) on the close. Tests of breakouts are a favorite entry point as they show buyers moving in after the initial run. We wait until it shows a volume move back up through the buy point to enter.
Volume: 181.058K Avg Volume: 105.136K
BUY POINT: $35.25 Volume=200K Target=$43 Stop=$33.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gldn.html
Play Date: 03/15/2004
OCR (Omnicare--$44.44; -0.31; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ocr.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. OCR is making its fourth test of the 50 day MVA (44.12) since breaking out of its 13 week flat base in September. Solid money flow and excellent relative strength. Looking for another 50 day MVA bounce on strong volume. The 50 day MVA is a strong support level and we are looking for a volume bounce up off of this level.
Volume: 446K Avg Volume: 495.5K
BUY POINT: $44.88 Volume=743K Target=$49.38 Stop=$43.94
POSITION: OCR FV - June $42.50c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ocr.html
Play Date: 03/15/2004
PXD (Pioneer Natural Res.--$33.48; +0.32; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pxd.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A very nice handle has formed to the 7 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Double bottom w/handle. A very nice handle has formed to the 7 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. The handle has formed on the 18 day MVA (32.61) as volume continues to fade. Relative strength has already broken out ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication. Just being patient and waiting for the strong volume breakout move.
Volume: 575.3K Avg Volume: 893.681K
BUY POINT: $34.12 Volume=1.3M Target=$40 Stop=$32.48
POSITION: PXD FF - June $30c (94 delta) or PXD FG - June $35c (31 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pxd.html
Play Date: 03/15/2004
VRNT (Verint Systems--$26.85; -0.52; optionable): Communications interception, digital video security, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrnt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. VRNT is in the handle to a 8.5 month base sporting outstanding 11 to 2 accumulation. The handle is the lateral and lower move near the high on the left side of the base (27.45) where those that bought at that level get frustrated and sell out because the stock is falling back from that old high. With INVN getting bought out there is renewed interest in these security stocks. VRNT has the nice addition of being near an all-time high. We are looking for it to breakout to that high and move in.
Volume: 312.298K Avg Volume: 111.454K
BUY POINT: $27.32 Volume=200K Target=$32.55 Stop=$25.96
POSITION: JOQ EE - May $25c (71 delta) or JOQ HE - Aug. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vrnt.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2004
HHH (Internet Hldrs Trust--$47.49; -1.49; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hhh.html
STATUS: Put. Looking for a quick play on this one. HHH is moving down along the 10 day MVA (48.85), bumping into that level on the highs and falling. Friday it rallied up to that level on low volume and then turned over Monday on strong trade. It is forming a base, but has broken through the top of the late 2003 base. Looking for a quick move down, take what gain we can, then close it out.
Volume: 373.8K Avg Volume: 233.617K
BUY POINT: $47.36 Volume=350K Target=$45.35 Stop=$48.88
POSITION: HHH QJ - May $50p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hhh.html
Good movers Monday: OMNI; SOX; ASF
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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