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stock research, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: SOX; DHR
Best Plays:
1) OCR: Ready for the 50 day MVA bounce.
2) VRNT: Nice pattern, ready for a new high.
3) TXT: Turning over again on strong trade.
4) HHH: Bouncing down from the 10 day MVA again.
5) STSI: Nice low volume test.
6) WSTM: Still looks ready for the breakout.
7) DHR: Rolling over on strong volume again.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/15/2004
MIND (Mitcham Industries--$4.57; +0.02; no options): 3-D seismic equipment leasing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mind.html
STATUS: Test breakout. MIND broke out of an 8 week flat base to start the month. The base sports solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), an indication of the money moving into the stock during that base. It formed over the 18 day MVA (4.17), broke higher, tested, and now ready to move again. Strong money flow is moving up ahead of the price. Relative strength has broken out in a selling market, a sign the stock is outperforming the rest of the market. Looking for it to follow that money flow higher, but need to see strong volume as it does.
Volume: 80.984K Avg Volume: 69.772K
BUY POINT: $4.68 Volume=105K Target=$5.62 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mind.html
Play Date: 03/15/2004
OCR (Omnicare--$44.44; -0.31; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ocr.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. OCR is making its fourth test of the 50 day MVA (44.12) since breaking out of its 13 week flat base in September. Solid money flow and excellent relative strength. Looking for another 50 day MVA bounce on strong volume. The 50 day MVA is a strong support level and we are looking for a volume bounce up off of this level.
Volume: 446K Avg Volume: 495.5K
BUY POINT: $44.88 Volume=743K Target=$49.38 Stop=$43.94
POSITION: OCR FV - June $42.50c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ocr.html
Play Date: 03/15/2004
VRNT (Verint Systems--$26.85; -0.52; optionable): Communications interception, digital video security, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrnt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. VRNT is in the handle to a 8.5 month base sporting outstanding 11 to 2 accumulation. The handle is the lateral and lower move near the high on the left side of the base (27.45) where those that bought at that level get frustrated and sell out because the stock is falling back from that old high. With INVN getting bought out there is renewed interest in these security stocks. VRNT has the nice addition of being near an all-time high. We are looking for it to breakout to that high and move in.
Volume: 312.298K Avg Volume: 111.454K
BUY POINT: $27.32 Volume=200K Target=$32.55 Stop=$25.96
POSITION: JOQ EE - May $25c (71 delta) or JOQ HE - Aug. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrnt.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2004
HHH (Internet Hldrs Trust--$47.49; -1.49; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hhh.html
STATUS: Put. Looking for a quick play on this one. HHH is moving down along the 10 day MVA (48.85), bumping into that level on the highs and falling. Friday it rallied up to that level on low volume and then turned over Monday on strong trade. It is forming a base, but has broken through the top of the late 2003 base. Looking for a quick move down, take what gain we can, then close it out.
Volume: 373.8K Avg Volume: 233.617K
BUY POINT: $47.36 Volume=350K Target=$45.35 Stop=$48.88
POSITION: HHH QJ - May $50p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hhh.html
Play Date: 03/15/2004
TXT (Textron--$51.79; -1.79; optionable): Aircraft, automotive parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txt.html
STATUS: Put. Broke the 50 day MVA (54.73) Wednesday on strong volume. It tried the bounce Friday with the market, but volume was low. We wanted it to move up one more session, but Monday was selling on even stronger trade. Looking for a quick run lower toward the 200 day MVA (47.50).
Volume: 1.114M Avg Volume: 653.318K
BUY POINT: $51.62 Volume=800K Target=$49.12 Stop=$52.12
POSITION: TXT PK - Apr. $55c (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/txt.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/13/2004
BEBE (Bebe Stores--$30.10; -0.79; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bebe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Unable to make progress Monday and sold toward the 10 day MVA (29.94) on rising, above average volume. It is still working on the handle of a 5.5 month base sporting solid 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Money has been moving into the stock and it looks as if Monday was just market action. Still being patient and looking for a volume breakout to move in.
Volume: 210.199K Avg Volume: 137.772K
BUY POINT: $31.62 Volume=200K Target=$36.35 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bebe.html
Play Date: 03/01/2004
SGMS (Scientific Games--$17.01; -0.83; optionable): Lottery and pari-mutuel wagering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still holding up, but sold to the 50 day MVA (16.67) on the low. Volume was low and it managed to bounce some to cut the losses. Still a solid pattern, a 9 week double bottom base. Money flow remains strong as does relative strength. Again, just need to see volume jump as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 436.879K Avg Volume: 713K
BUY POINT: $18.12 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.75 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: TUJ GW - July $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgms.html
Play Date: 02/21/2004
SOFO (Sonic Foundry--$2.23; -0.03; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sofo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Has dropped back to the 50 day MVA (2.20) on continued below average volume as it dips lower in the handle. It showed a nice hammer doji at that level, an indication that the stock may be ready to begin the move higher. Excellent money flow is moving up ahead of the stock and we are looking for SOFO to follow it higher and provide the breakout from its 4.5 month base. Solid pattern.
Volume: 111.004K Avg Volume: 126.5K
BUY POINT: $2.56 Volume=189K Target=$3.21 Stop=$2.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sofo.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
STSI (Star Scientific--$3.95; -0.2; no options): Low carcinogen tobacco research and products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still forming the handle to its 8 month base. As noted Saturday, very good price/volume action in the pattern: volume dried up at the bottom of the base as it held over the 200 day MVA (1.82) on the low, then swelling as the stock rallied higher to form the right side of the pattern. Excellent 12 to 3 accumulation in the pattern with money flow moving up ahead of price. Excellent money flow and relative strength is solid. Just waiting to see volume surge on the breakout.
Volume: 63.315K Avg Volume: 170.818K
BUY POINT: $4.42 Volume=285K Target=$5.48 Stop=$4.11
POSITION: - Stocks (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stsi.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
TMTA (Transmeta--$3.84; -0.08; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmta.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still holding in its 21 week base though Monday was a bit rougher as TMTA fell back on rising, above average volume after trying to make a run early. Strong 6 to 2 accumulation and money flow surging higher ahead of price. Despite Monday's pullback we are still looking for a nice breakout from a nice pattern.
Volume: 5.924M Avg Volume: 3.62M
BUY POINT: $4.18 Volume=5.1M Target=$5 Stop=$3.89
POSITION: MQE FZ - June $2.50c (93 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tmta.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
WIND (Wind River Systems--$10.08; -0.5; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wind.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Not bad action, falling back to the 18 day MVA (9.96) on rising though not surging volume. Still a nice test of the breakout from its 3.5 month double bottom base in late December. Still looks as if the second test of near support will hold. Stocks that breakout tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 or 18 day MVA after a breakout. That leaves plenty of room overhead, and we are looking for WIND to hold here and bounce on stronger trade.
Volume: 769.024K Avg Volume: 670.181K
BUY POINT: $10.72 Volume=850K Target=$12.88 Stop=$9.97
POSITION: QWV HB - Aug. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wind.html
Play Date: 03/08/2004
WSTM (Workstream--$2.58; -0.06; no options): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wstm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues to work laterally at the top of the pattern as volume backed off again Monday after surging last week. Nice 9 week base with super money flow and relative strength holding up very well. Still looking for the strong breakout as volume resumes.
Volume: 86.3K Avg Volume: 193.954K
BUY POINT: $2.72 Volume=234K Target=$3.55 Stop=$2.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wstm.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 03/10/2004
DHR (Danaher--$88.40; -2.45; optionable): Building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
STATUS: Put. After a rebound Friday from the selling earlier in the week, DHR rolled over again on very strong, above average volume. Looks to be resuming the move down after the breach of the 50 day MVA (90.39). Still a buy on a continued move lower.
Volume: 1.413M Avg Volume: 903.636K
BUY POINT: $88.22 Volume=1.2M Target=$85.25 Stop=$90.15
POSITION: DHR PR - Apr. $90p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dhr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock research
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