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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Monday: OMNI; SMTS; VWPT; SOX; BELM
Weekend play results:
DYNT: Tried the move on average volume but gave back much of the move. Still solid.
OMNI: Nice break higher on strong trade.
RATE: Still a very nice handle to a very nice base.
New plays for Tuesday:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/15/2004
CVNS (Covansys--$11.42; +0.77; no options): Onsite, offsite, offshore outsourcing and integration services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvns.html
STATUS: Flat base. CVNS is working on a 10 week flat base that formed over the 50 day MVA (10.81). Thos base follows on the heels of a 9 week base in November and December. Monday it was moving higher on a strong volume shot (though still below average). It has been awarded several contracts of late, and Monday was moving higher, looking ready for the breakout. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the recent pattern. Solid money flow and relative strength breaking out ahead of the stock, a very bullish sign.
Volume: 108.475K Avg Volume: 139.818K
BUY POINT: $11.78 Volume=210K Target=$14.15 Stop=$10.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cvns.html
Play Date: 03/15/2004
PXD (Pioneer Natural Res.--$33.48; +0.32; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pxd.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A very nice handle has formed to the 7 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Double bottom w/handle. A very nice handle has formed to the 7 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. The handle has formed on the 18 day MVA (32.61) as volume continues to fade. Relative strength has already broken out ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication. Just being patient and waiting for the strong volume breakout move.
Volume: 575.3K Avg Volume: 893.681K
BUY POINT: $34.12 Volume=1.3M Target=$40 Stop=$32.48
POSITION: PXD FF - June $30c (94 delta) or PXD FG - June $35c (31 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pxd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2004
HHH (Internet Hldrs Trust--$47.49; -1.49; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hhh.html
STATUS: Put. Looking for a quick play on this one. HHH is moving down along the 10 day MVA (48.85), bumping into that level on the highs and falling. Friday it rallied up to that level on low volume and then turned over Monday on strong trade. It is forming a base, but has broken through the top of the late 2003 base. Looking for a quick move down, take what gain we can, then close it out.
Volume: 373.8K Avg Volume: 233.617K
BUY POINT: $47.36 Volume=350K Target=$45.35 Stop=$48.88
POSITION: HHH QJ - May $50p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hhh.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AVID, COH, DIS, EBAY; GTRC, HD; KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, TJX; UTSI, XMSR
GTRC: Giving up the 50 day MVA as it falls out of the handle.
KKD: Trying to buck up after the massive drop, but KKD's days of racing higher are over for awhile. It will need to complete this base and that looks like a big job.
OCR: Nice 50 day MVA test once again, its fourth on this run. Could make a very nice trade here.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
DOVP: Trying to make the breakout from a 6 month cup with handle base.
Downside:
GLYN: Bounced up to the 18 day MVA on rising volume after moving laterally along that level for several weeks.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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