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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Monday night play results:
GLDN: Still in a good pattern. Needs some more volume on the continued move back up.
OCR: Getting ready to make the move.
PXD: Gapped higher with many stocks but could not hold the move. Still in the pattern.
VRNT: Still in the pattern, holding steady on lower volume.
HHH: Doji below the 10 day MVA. Still looking for the move down.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/16/2004
DWCH (Datawatch--$10.70; +1.04; no options): Business software. Splits 2:1 on 4-9-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dwch.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A bit lighter trade than we normally move in, but a nice 6 month cup pattern that DWCH blasted out of to start the month. Volume has surged, jumping average volume higher. Money flow has surged ahead and relative strength broke out on the blast off. It has come back to test the 18 day MVA (9.22), held, and started back up Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. These are momentum plays, and we want to catch the momentum.
Volume: 106.447K Avg Volume: 121.09K
BUY POINT: $10.92 Volume=175K Target=$13.15 Stop=$10.16
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dwch.html
Play Date: 03/16/2004
FINL (Finish Line--$34.05; +0.04; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/finl.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Broke out of a double bottom with handle pattern in early January, rallied to 37.60, and is now taking a breather with a 50 day MVA (33.70) test. A strong breakout will often come back to test that level and then resume. We are looking to pick it up off of the test on a strong volume surge. Volume faded below average on the pullback, indicating few sellers; just what you want to see. Strong money flow and relative strength holding up on this mild test of key support as the market sells.
Volume: 323.323K Avg Volume: 440.727K
BUY POINT: $34.48 Volume=661K Target=$39.85 Stop=$33.58
POSITION: IUL HG - Aug. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/finl.html
Play Date: 03/16/2004
GILTF (Gilat Satellite--$8.05; +0.25; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/giltf.html
STATUS: Flat base. Moving more or less sideways in a trading range the past 8 weeks after breaking out of a 6 month cup with handle base. Accumulation in the current pattern is 3 to 0, showing that money has moved into the stock as it has moved laterally. Money flow is strong and relative strength is breaking out. Volume started to run higher Tuesday as GILTF edged higher. Looking at it again, and looking for a high volume move.
Volume: 514.176K Avg Volume: 263.409K
BUY POINT: $8.14 Volume=500K Target=$9.78 Stop=$7.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chian)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/giltf.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/16/2004
UTX (United Technologies--$88.04; +0.14; optionable): Elevators, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utx.html
STATUS: Put. UTX is under pressure in part from an EU claim that the company colluded with other elevator companies. It has trended lower down the 10 day MVA (88.65) since peaking in late February. After a hard fall last week it held just over 85 and bounced back to the 10 day, but looks to be faltering there again. Stocks in this type of downtrend tend to fail at the 10 or 18 day MVA; looks as if UTX is using the 10 day. Looking to pick it up as it rolls back down on rising trade.
Volume: 2.606M Avg Volume: 2.319M
BUY POINT: $87.84 Volume=3M Target=$84 Stop=$88.94
POSITION: UTX QR - May $90p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/utx.html
Look ready: CCI
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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