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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits: These are momentum plays where we look to jump on when it makes the move, grab some gain, and when it starts to falter, take the money. We often use options in order to leverage the smaller price movements we look for on these plays.
Play Date: 03/16/2004
DWCH (Datawatch--$10.70; +1.04; no options): Business software. Splits 2:1 on 4-9-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dwch.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A bit lighter trade than we normally move in, but a nice 6 month cup pattern that DWCH blasted out of to start the month. Volume has surged, jumping average volume higher. Money flow has surged ahead and relative strength broke out on the blast off. It has come back to test the 18 day MVA (9.22), held, and started back up Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. These are momentum plays, and we want to catch the momentum.
Volume: 106.447K Avg Volume: 121.09K
BUY POINT: $10.92 Volume=175K Target=$13.15 Stop=$10.16
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dwch.html
Play Date: 03/16/2004
IDSA (Industrial Services of America--$26.75; -0.75; no options): Waste Management. Splits 2:1 on 3-31-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idsa.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After that huge move higher in February, IDSA has made a low volume test of that move. We saw it at the 10 day MVA (29.45) but then it slipped lower. It is now trying to hold at the 18 day MVA (27.18) on lower volume. Still has super money flow, and we are looking for IDSA to hold at this support and then follow that money flow higher.
Volume: 573.9K Avg Volume: 845K
BUY POINT: $27.25 Volume=2M Target=$35 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idsa.html
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 03/16/2004
JAH (Jarden--$34.80; +0.60; no options): Consumer goods, rubber and plastics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A very strong performer, JAH has been stepping higher over the 50 day MVA (32.93) since breaking out of a cup base last August. After a strong surge in late February, it is coming back to test the 18 day MVA (34.60) on much lower, below average volume. Perfect price/volume action as it shows no sellers as the stock makes its test. It may come back to the 50 day MVA (32.93) before rallying again, but it looks good and we want to be ready when it starts its next test higher.
Volume: 165.4K Avg Volume: 200.954K
BUY POINT: $35.06 Volume=301K Target=$42 Stop=$33.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04.
BCR: Researching next date.
BMET: 3-17-04. Nice move Monday on above average volume as it heads into the earnings tomorrow.
CAKE: 4-19-04
CDWC: Researching the next date.
CHS: Forecast 3-3-04 after the close. No split announced. Nice pullback after the break higher.
ELAB: Researching next date.
HUG: Forecast 3-9-04. No announcement. Testing the move.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LXK: Researching next date.
MBG: No split on 3-4-04. Making the bounce back up on stronger, above trade.
MBT: Researching date.
NCEN: Forecast 3-17 or on 4-15.
NMGA: No 3-3-04 split announcement. 50 day MVA test.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SHFL: Researching next date.
SONC: Forecast 3-15-04.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
STN: Forecast 4-20-04 before the open.
TOL: No split with the board meeting on 3-2 but no complaints.
UOPX: Researching a date but could come this week.
VAR: VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Researching next date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/16/2004
FINL (Finish Line--$34.05; +0.04; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 4-2-04.
BACKGROUND: No prior splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/finl.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Broke out of a double bottom with handle pattern in early January, rallied to 37.60, and is now taking a breather with a 50 day MVA (33.70) test. A strong breakout will often come back to test that level and then resume. We are looking to pick it up off of the test on a strong volume surge. Volume faded below average on the pullback, indicating few sellers; just what you want to see. Strong money flow and relative strength holding up on this mild test of key support as the market sells.
Volume: 323.323K Avg Volume: 440.727K
BUY POINT: $34.48 Volume=661K Target=$39.85 Stop=$33.58
POSITION: IUL HG - Aug. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/finl.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/28/2004
BMET (Biomet--$39.2; +1.36; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split on 3-17-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-9-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-27-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (38.19). After fading back for the past month, BMET hit the 50 day, held, and has worked laterally. Monday it jumped up off of that level on stronger, above average volume. Relative strength looks great and money flow is strong. Earnings are out early, and if it moves well we will be looking at positions for a solid leader.
Volume: 2.009M Avg Volume: 1.624M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 39.55 Breakout: $40.22 Volume=2M Target=$47 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: BIQ GH - July $40c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bmet.html
Play Date: 03/09/2004
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$37.69; +0.14; optionable): Restaurants. Forecast to announce a split on 4-20-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Next shareholder meeting is scheduled for 11-4-2004. Last shareholder meeting was on 11-13.03 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
BACGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in late 2000 at a price of $38.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. Still holding at the 18 day MVA (37.76) on mostly below average volume as EAT tests the nice run higher after breaking out of its 7.5 month base. Stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 day after a breakout as part of the breakout run. That leaves still plenty of upside on this breakout move, but we want to see the volume kick in as EAT resumes the bounce higher. Nice doji Tuesday on the 18 day MVA, often an indication it is ready to make the rebound.
Volume: 705.2K Avg Volume: 758.59K
BUY POINT: $39.06 Volume=950K Target=$46.88 Stop=$37.88
POSITION: EAT GG - July $35c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
NCEN (New Century Financial--$49.19; +0.09; optionable): Mortgage investment. Forecast to announce a split 3-17 in conjunction with a board meeting or 4-15 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in May 2003 at a price of $42.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncen.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Holding at the 18 day MVA (48.97), showing consecutive dojis at that level on lower, below average volume. That indicates there are few sellers, and when they come in the buyers drive it right back up. Solid 7 week pattern showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Looks ready to make the move and we will see if tomorrow delivers the impetus.
Volume: 675.197K Avg Volume: 857.545K
BUY POINT: $51.52 Volume=1.2M Target=$61 Stop=$48.24
POSITION: URE HJ - Aug. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncen.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
STN (Station Casinos--$39.4; -0.01; optionable): Resorts and casinos. Forecast to announce a split on 4-20-04 before the market opens on in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in June 2000 at a stock price of approximately around $15. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stn.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Another nice doji at the 10 day MVA on rising though still below average volume. This is a very nice test of the breakout from its 13 week cup with handle base. Excellent money flow and relative strength holding up well. Just looking for another strong volume bounce from here to move in.
Volume: 289K Avg Volume: 355.727K
BUY POINT: $39.66 Volume=550K Target=$45.75 Stop=$38.08
POSITION: STN GH - July $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stn.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 03/13/2004
CLZR (Canela--$26.31; -0.1; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 3-17-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clzr.html
STATUS: Cup. Holding well over the 10 day MVA (25.42) as it forms a handle to a nice little 8 week cup, now with handle, base. Looks ready to make the move as volume starts higher Tuesday with the nice doji. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 195.196K Avg Volume: 188.454K
BUY POINT: $27.42 Volume=308K Target=$32 Stop=$25.72
POSITION: UKZ EE - May $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clzr.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
DNA (Genentech--$104.55; -0.6; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Test breakout. May have completed the pullback, testing below the 18 day MVA (104.97) and rebounding to hold near that level on rising, above average volume. Nice breakout test, holding at appropriate support. Looks ready.
Volume: 3.489M Avg Volume: 2.554M
BUY POINT: $108.12 Volume=4M Target=$118 Stop=$104.95
POSITION: DNA FT - June $110c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dna.html
Play Date: 02/28/2004
DCOM (Dime Community Bancshares--$31.19; -0.07; no options): Savings and loan. Splits 3:2 on 3-17-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcom.html
STATUS: Flat base. After looking ready to go last week DCOM could not overcome the Monday selling, but it held fast in the nice base over the 50 day MVA (30.85). Volume shot higher Tuesday ad it tapped the 50 day and rebounded. Looks good still with money flow moving higher ahead of the price. Just waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 213.727K Avg Volume: 136.318K
BUY POINT: $32.17 Volume=200K Target=$37 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dcom.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
FOSL (Fossil--$32.98; -0.22; optionable): Watches, accessories, etc. Splits 3:2 on 4-9-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice test of the 18 day MVA (32.54), tapping that level on the Tuesday low and bouncing. Volume was low on the test, indicating few sellers. FOSL exploded out of a 6 month flat base in late February, rallying to 35 in a tremendous surge. It has spent the past two weeks coming back to test the move. Excellent money flow leading higher and a relative strength breakout. Just waiting for the stock to do the same.
Volume: 135.935K Avg Volume: 223.59K
BUY POINT: $33.82 Volume=310K Target=$39 Stop=$32.35
POSITION: FUA FF - June $30c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
HOV (Hovnanian Enterprises--$87.55; -0.15; optionable): Residential construction. Splits 3:2 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hov.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A doji over the 10 day MVA (86.78) as HOV continues to work on the handle to its 14 week base showing positive 3 to 2 accumulation. The housing report did not upset the stock; low interest rates are good for homebuilders, and rates continue to lower. Looking for volume to jump as it moves through the buy point in this nice pattern.
Volume: 778.1K Avg Volume: 886.272K
BUY POINT: $88.75 Volume=1.4M Target=$99 Stop=$85.22
POSITION: HOV ER - May $90c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hov.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
PG (Procter & Gamble--$103.06; +0.54; optionable): Consumer products. Splits 2:1 on 6-21-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Holding at the 18 day MVA (102.92) with a nice tight doji Tuesday. That candlestick symbol often indicates a pullback is over, particularly if it holds over a support level. It surged after announcing a dividend increase, increased earnings guidance, and set a split. It has filled the gap and now we are looking for it to rally on stronger volume.
Volume: 3.378M Avg Volume: 3.166M
BUY POINT: $104.92 Volume=4.2M Target=$115 Stop=$103.25
POSITION: PG GA - July $105c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pg.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
XTO (XTO Energy--$31.4; -0.25; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 5:4 on 3-18-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (31.03) in a slow roll between the 10 day and 32. Relative strength is excellent as is money flow. Low volume lateral move is getting ready for the breakout.
Volume: 811.3K Avg Volume: 1.09M
BUY POINT: $31.25 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.28 Stop=$30.65
POSITION: XTO EF - May $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 03/13/2004
HAR (Harman Intl.--$76.5; +1.3; optionable): High end auto electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Still working on the test, holding that level in the Monday selling. That is what you want to see: holding support as the rest of the market suffers. Showing a doji Tuesday on low, below average volume. A great mover prior to this 9 week base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Just looking for volume to return as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 373.7K Avg Volume: 557.818K
BUY POINT: $78.35 Volume=883K Target=$90 Stop=$76.96
POSITION: HAR GP - July $80c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 09/16/2003
IGT (International Game Technology--$40.88; +0.93; optionable): Video poker
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. After a 5 week flat base in January and February, IGT exploded higher to start the month. It has eased back to the 18 day MVA (40.14) on below average volume until Tuesday when it moved off the 18 day on a strong shot of above average volume. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to breakout again. Solid, long term performer for us.
Volume: 3.288M Avg Volume: 2.012M
BUY POINT: New: 41.25 (orig. $29.05) Volume=4.7M Target=$49.55 (orig. $34.55) Stop=$40.38
POSITION: IGT GH - July $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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