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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: AOT; MAMA; TOM; VRNT; PD; WEBX
Best Plays:
1) ACXM: Nice breakout test.
2) CBR: Volume is jumping as it moves toward the breakout.
3) CYTC: Volume is shooting higher as it shows a doji over support.
4) SWIR: Forming up very nicely for the next break higher.
5) TEO: Just about there as volume starts to rise.
6) WIND: Still like the nice breakout test.
7) UTX: A doji at resistance.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/17/2004
ACXM (Acxicom--$20.41; +0.40; optionable): Information technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acxm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ACXM broke out of a big 17 month base in February and has run to 21.63 on the initial breakout move. In the recent market selling ACXM has faded back to test the breakout, holding the breakout point at 20 on very low volume. That low volume pullback shows there is little selling after the strong breakout. Once the short term profit takers are gone then the stock will be ready to move back up. It looks as if it may be at that point right now as it has tapped the breakout point and has held for the past three sessions. Volume edged higher Wednesday as the market moved off this support. Money flow is solid and relative strength is ready to breakout. Want to see volume jump back up above average as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 467.23K Avg Volume: 653.363K
BUY POINT: $20.56 Volume=800K Target=$24.72 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: UQA HD - Aug. $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acxm.html
Play Date: 03/17/2004
CBR (Ciber, Inc.--$10.39; +0.46; optionable): Information technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Some good patterns in this sector as we hear bits and pieces about how there is a real recovery underway. Volume is jumping as CBR heads toward the breakout from its 7 month base showing excellent 9 to 3 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows money moving into the stock over the course of the base. In addition, it formed over the 50 day MVA (9.66), a sign of solid support at this key level. Looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 771.2K Avg Volume: 442.59K
BUY POINT: $10.58 Volume=750K Target=$12.72 Stop=$9.84
POSITION: CBR HB - Aug. $10c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbr.html
Play Date: 03/17/2004
WMI (Waste Management--$29.84; +0.64; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wmi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Working through an 11 week pattern that is now using the 50 day MVA (28.87) as support on the tests lower. In this pattern the stock makes higher and higher lows below a constant top (in this case 30). Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 3 to 1. Wednesday it jumped higher toward the breakout, but volume was not there and it faded from the breakout. Very solid pattern. Just needs volume on the move through the buy point.
Volume: 1.848M Avg Volume: 1.877M
BUY POINT: $30.25 Volume=2.8M Target=$36.32 Stop=$28.13
POSITION: WMI GF - July $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wmi.html
New buy point on a continuing play:
Play Date: 03/17/2004
CYTC (Cytyc--$19.98; +0.20; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CYTC exploded higher to start the month, breaking out from a 21 week cup with handle base on a strong volume surge. It ran to 22 and has now come back to test the breakout, holding over the 18 day MVA (19.44). Volume jumped Wednesday as CYTC tapped at the 18 day on the low and rebounded for a modest gain. That doji it showed above support often indicates a pullback is over, particularly when volume rushes back in.
Volume: 5.41M Avg Volume: 1.49M
BUY POINT: $20.48 Volume=2.2M Target=$24.65 Stop=$19.34
POSITION: YQK HD - Aug. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cytc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/13/2004
BEBE (Bebe Stores--$30.76; +0.16; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bebe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally in the handle, holding over the 10 day MVA (30.18) as it works laterally below 31.50 on mostly below average volume. Solid 5.5 month base sporting strong 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Still being patient and looking for a volume breakout to move in.
Volume: 120.725K Avg Volume: 135K
BUY POINT: $31.62 Volume=200K Target=$36.35 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bebe.html
Play Date: 03/01/2004
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$37.68; +0.93; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. HYSE has pulled back and held the 18 day MVA (36.86) as it works on the handle to what has turned into a short 8 week pattern. Money flow has held up well as the stock pulled back on low, below average volume to near support. It has been flirting with a breakout all along and held up very well in the market selling, pulling back on very low volume. Just waiting for the high volume break to the upside.
Volume: 379.152K Avg Volume: 809.545K
BUY POINT: $38.72 Volume=1.1M Target=$44.38 Stop=$36.68
POSITION: WQE HG - Aug. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hysl.html
Play Date: 02/21/2004
SOFO (Sonic Foundry--$2.29; +0.06; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sofo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Holding over the 50 day MVA (2.20) the past 5 sessions, holding on low volume. Money flow remains solid as it makes this pullback. Having to be patient with this one, but like the 4.5 month base a lot.
Volume: 105.003K Avg Volume: 125.863K
BUY POINT: $2.56 Volume=189K Target=$3.21 Stop=$2.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sofo.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
SWIR (Sierra Wireless--$30.82; +0.63; optionable): PC Networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swir.html
STATUS: Test breakout. A very nice lateral move over the 18 day MVA (29.05) as SWIR tests the 18 day MVA as it continues to rally following the early January breakout from its base. Volume jumped Wednesday back above average as SWIR moved up off the bottom of the consolidation. Money flow remains excellent and relative strength is already making the breakout, a very bullish signal.
Volume: 1.144M Avg Volume: 882.954K
BUY POINT: $31.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$36.85 Stop=$29.65
POSITION: IYQ FF - June $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/swir.html
Play Date: 02/23/2004
TEO (Telecom Argentina--$10.84; +0.20; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TEO continues to form a nice handle over the 18 day MVA (10.51) to its 10 week base. It formed over the 50 day MVA (10), an indication of solid support for the stock. Volume is starting to turn up as TEO shows a doji over that level. Waiting for the breakout to take the next positions.
Volume: 404.2K Avg Volume: 396.863K
BUY POINT: New: $11.31 (orig. $10.61) Volume=520K Target=$12.72 Stop=$10.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/teo.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
TMTA (Transmeta--$3.84; +0.15; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmta.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still working on its 22 week base, coming back to test and hold the 50 day MVA (3.66). Solid 6 to 2 accumulation in the base and excellent money flow. This one has the new fast, slim and cool chip. Waiting for it to do the same when it breaks out.
Volume: 1.937M Avg Volume: 3.712M
BUY POINT: $4.18 Volume=5.1M Target=$5 Stop=$3.89
POSITION: MQE FZ - June $2.50c (93 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tmta.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
WIND (Wind River Systems--$10.22; -0.13; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wind.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Holding up well, but it did not participate in the bounce Wednesday. Still in the nice test of the late December breakout from its 3.5 month double bottom base in. Money flow is leading higher, and we are just waiting for the stock to follow it on strong volume.
Volume: 693.351K Avg Volume: 649.09K
BUY POINT: $10.72 Volume=850K Target=$12.88 Stop=$9.97
POSITION: QWV HB - Aug. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wind.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 03/16/2004
UTX (United Technologies--$88.8; +0.76; optionable): Elevators, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utx.html
STATUS: Put. A nice doji right at the 10 day MVA (88.68) as UTX continues a low volume bounce from the hard selling last week. Volume has dropped below average that past two sessions as UTX tried the 10 day MVA but could not make the break back above that level. Looking for it to fail here and fall back down toward the 200 day MVA (83.58).
Volume: 1.598M Avg Volume: 2.314M
BUY POINT: $87.84 Volume=3M Target=$84 Stop=$88.94
POSITION: UTX QR - May $90p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/utx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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