|
|
us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: CHT; EVCI; TASR; TTP; ULTI
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
Leader plays: May not turn into split plays, but solid technical patterns.
Play Date: 03/18/2004
CMRG (Casual Male Retail--$9.25; +0.29; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmrg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has swelled the past week and jumped to its highest level of late Thursday as CMRG starts to make the break from its 19 week base. Accumulation in the pattern is strong at 5 to 2 (5 up price weeks on rising volume versus 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That sets the foundation and shows money has moved into the stock as it worked through the pattern to consolidate some strong gains from early 2003. It formed over the 200 day MVA (7.13) on the low, a good support level for stocks to hold. Money flow is surging higher, moving up ahead of the price. Not really well known but that is how good moves often start; the household names have already made many runs by the time they become household names.
Volume: 882.108K Avg Volume: 390.227K
BUY POINT: $9.38 Volume=585K Target=$11.22 Stop=$8.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmrg.html
Play Date: 03/18/2004
KFY (Korn Ferry Intl.--$14.15; +0.53; no options): Staffing & outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kfy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The stocks in this sector are setting up nicely and KFY is not exception. It had formed a nice 11 week base on top of the 50 day MVA (12.73). Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), setting the foundation for the breakout as it shows money moving into the stock during the base. Thursday the stock started to break higher and out of the pattern on strong trade. Money flow is surging and relative strength is making the breakout. The latter shows how solid the breakout is. Looking for KFY to follow the money and continue the breakout.
Volume: 601K Avg Volume: 181.727K
BUY POINT: $14.27 Volume=300K Target=$17.12 Stop=$13.27
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kfy.html
Play Date: 03/18/2004
TTP (Titan Pharmaceuticals--$5.20; +0.47; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttp.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. TTP has broken out of a base on base pattern, two cup bases spanning October to March. We caught TTP as it made its breakout from the second cup, a 6 week pattern that formed on top of the 50 day MVA (4.15). After coming back to test the 18 day MVA (4.67), the breakout point from the second cup, it started higher Thursday on rising volume. Looking for it to continue the resumption of the breakout as it follows the surging money flow.
Volume: 280.1K Avg Volume: 275.5K
BUY POINT: $5.28 Volume=300K Target=$6.59 Stop=$4.91
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttp.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/15/2004
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$34.21; -0.52; no options): Russian telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Testing the breakout from its 27 week cup base. It surged higher last week on strong volume and has now tested the breakout and had filled the gap. The action has tightened up, holding over the 18 day MVA (33.90) on low volume. A solid base that has formed over the 50 day MVA (32.08), we are waiting for GLDN to turn back up on a jump back up in volume.
Volume: 52.25K Avg Volume: 108.181K
BUY POINT: $35.25 Volume=200K Target=$43 Stop=$33.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gldn.html
Play Date: 03/02/2004
NUS (Nu Skin--$20.36; -0.25; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA (19.44). Nice breakout early in the month, and in the recent selling has come back to tap and hold the 50 day. Volume jumped Wednesday as it make the test and bounce; that is exactly what you want to see as big money moves in to buy at that key support level. Money flow is excellent and moving higher ahead of the price, and we are looking for price to follow it.
Volume: 270.1K Avg Volume: 322.454K
BUY POINT: $21.08 Volume=455K Target=$25.15 Stop=$19.91
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nus.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04.
BCR: Researching next date.
BMET: 3-17-04. No split announced, but looks ready to run on swelling volume.
CAKE: 4-19-04
CDWC: Researching the next date.
CHS: Researching next date.
ELAB: Researching next date.
HUG: Forecast 3-9-04. No announcement, but good move.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LXK: Researching next date.
MBG: No split on 3-4-04. Still working higher up the 18 day MVA.
MBT: Researching date.
NCEN: Forecast 3-17 or on 4-15. No split 3-17, so looking at 4-15.
NMGA: No 3-3-04 split announcement. Trying to hold support at 55.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SHFL: Researching next date.
SONC: Forecast 3-15-04. No split announced and making another test of the 50 day MVA.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
STN: Forecast 4-20-04 before the open.
TOL: No split with the board meeting on 3-2 but no complaints as it holds the 18 day MVA.
UOPX: Researching a date but could come this week.
VAR: VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Researching next date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/18/2004
GTK (Gtech Holdings--$56.90; +0.30; optionable): Lottery software. Forecast to announce a split on 4-8-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-6-02 at a stock price of $58.90. The annual shareholder meeting was on 8-18-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtk.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. GTK is in a sustained uptrend for the past year and one-half. That makes it a bit extended for expectations of further huge gains, but it is making a test of the 50 day MVA (56.22), a level that evokes solid buying in strong stocks. It can give us a good move off of this level and bring us a good return on the next 50 day MVA bounce.
Volume: 615.7K Avg Volume: 602.454K
BUY POINT: $58.08 Volume=904K Target=$66.78 Stop=$56
POSITION: GTK FK - June $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gtk.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/16/2004
FINL (Finish Line--$34.19; +0.13; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 4-2-04.
BACKGROUND: No prior splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/finl.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Still testing the 50 day MVA (33.74) after breaking out of a double bottom with handle pattern in early January. A strong breakout will often come back to test that level and then resume. We are looking to pick it up off of the test on a strong volume surge. Volume faded below average on the pullback, indicating few sellers; just what you want to see. Strong money flow and relative strength holding up on this mild test of key support as the market sells.
Volume: 214.909K Avg Volume: 428.818K
BUY POINT: $34.48 Volume=661K Target=$39.85 Stop=$33.58
POSITION: IUL HG - Aug. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/finl.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
STN (Station Casinos--$39.74; -0.13; optionable): Resorts and casinos. Forecast to announce a split on 4-20-04 before the market opens on in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in June 2000 at a stock price of approximately around $15. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stn.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working laterally at the 10 day MVA (39.44) after breaking out of its 13 week cup with handle base two weeks back. Money flow and relative strength remain strong as it works laterally and prepares for the next move. Volume jumped Wednesday as it tried to make the move, but could not hold up. Still looks very good and just need a high volume breakaway.
Volume: 181.2K Avg Volume: 360.045K
BUY POINT: $39.66 Volume=550K Target=$45.75 Stop=$38.08
POSITION: STN GH - July $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stn.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 03/13/2004
DNA (Genentech--$106.57; -0.25; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After dipping below the 18 day MVA (105.32) Tuesday and rebounding, DNA continues its lateral move on very low, below average volume. We are just biding our time while DNA completes the test of the strong move to end last month.
Volume: 2.026M Avg Volume: 2.566M
BUY POINT: $108.12 Volume=4M Target=$118 Stop=$104.95
POSITION: DNA FT - June $110c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dna.html
Play Date: 03/16/2004
DWCH (Datawatch--$10.47; +0.14; no options): Business software. Splits 2:1 on 4-9-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dwch.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the low volume lateral move over the 18 day MVA (9.45) that is testing the blast higher two weeks base. Tremendous money flow leading higher as it collects itself for the next move to continue the breakout.
Volume: 39.367K Avg Volume: 123K
BUY POINT: $10.92 Volume=175K Target=$13.15 Stop=$10.16
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dwch.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
FOSL (Fossil--$33.81; -0.27; optionable): Watches, accessories, etc. Splits 3:2 on 4-9-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another stock making a nice test of the breakout, working laterally along the 18 day MVA (32.82) on low, below average volume. It is testing a strong break higher to end February. Strong money flow continues to hold up as it makes the lateral test. The stock is ignoring the selling; now we need to see it make the next move in the breakout.
Volume: 158.871K Avg Volume: 222.5K
BUY POINT: $33.82 Volume=310K Target=$39 Stop=$32.35
POSITION: FUA FF - June $30c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 03/16/2004
IDSA (Industrial Services of America--$28.77; +2.06; no options): Waste Management. Splits 2:1 on 3-31-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idsa.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume is starting higher as IDSA starts to make its move off the 18 day MVA (27.30). It has settled down the past week, working off some of the froths that was still with it at the 10 day MVA (28.92). Strong money flow remains ahead of the price, and it looks as if IDSA is ready to follow it higher.
Volume: 804.848K Avg Volume: 811.045K
BUY POINT: New: $28.88 (orig. $27.25) Volume=2M Target=$35 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idsa.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
PG (Procter & Gamble--$104.43; +0.21; optionable): Consumer products. Splits 2:1 on 6-21-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Regrouping after gapping higher two weeks back and then coming back to test the move. Volume started to edge higher Thursday as the stock moved off the 18 day MVA (103.20). Solid money flow is helping. Looking for more volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 3.1M Avg Volume: 3.125M
BUY POINT: $104.92 Volume=4.2M Target=$115 Stop=$103.25
POSITION: PG GA - July $105c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pg.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 03/13/2004
HAR (Harman Intl.--$77.75; -0.09; optionable): High end auto electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Continues to work laterally at the 10 day MVA (77.29) on low, below average volume. This move comes after bouncing up off the 50 day MVA (75.18). It is taking its time, and we really need to see stronger volume on the move. Stocks off the 50 day MVA should show more volume, and HAR is no exception. A great mover prior to this 9 week base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Just looking for volume to return as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 416.2K Avg Volume: 553.409K
BUY POINT: $78.35 Volume=883K Target=$90 Stop=$76.96
POSITION: HAR GP - July $80c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
EBAY (Ebay--$69.34; -0.26; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Flat base. EBAY still looks good as it moves laterally the past 9 weeks, holding over the 50 day MVA (66.82). Volume has backed off to below average after surging two weeks back as it tried a breakout. Holding up very well in the base and showing 2 to 0 accumulation in the pattern. Money flow is solid and moving up ahead of the price. Looking for EBAY to follow it.
Volume: 5.212M Avg Volume: 6.768M
BUY POINT: $71.78 Volume=10M Target=$82.25 Stop=$68.15
POSITION: xba gn - July $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
top stock pick
|
