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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: DRAX; FMTI; GILTF; ONCY; OS
Thursday night play results:
KRY: Gapped higher but could not continue the move. Still a very nice pattern and still ready to try the break higher.
BRCD: Held up well, selling on very low volume as the rest of the market tanked. Very good action.
GGG: Still struggling below the 50 day MVA and still looks ready to fall.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
MFN (Minefinders--$9.95; +0.25; no options): Mining exploration & development.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mfn.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume surge Friday as MFN was being added to the S&P/TSX composite index. The addition was announced March 15, and it has been building a very solid pattern well ahead of that announcement, so it is not all news driven action. The pattern is an 11 week triangle, making higher lows up the 50 day MVA (9.15) with a constant top below 10. Each time the stock trades lower the buyers come in and pick it up. In this way it works off the overhead and also builds pressure for the breakout, and those breakouts can be explosive when they start. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) sets the stage for a good breakout and run. Relative strength is already making the breakout, a very bullish indication.
Volume: 296.1K Avg Volume: 77.351K
BUY POINT: $10.12 Volume=120K Target=$12.22 Stop=$9.41
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mfn.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
RITA (Rita Medical Systems--$5.40; +0.01; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rita.html
STATUS: Breakout test. RITA jumped out of a nice 13 week cup base to start the month, running to 5.50. It has moved laterally the last week, holding its gains on the breakout on declining volume. That is very good action as it shows no one wanting to sell it as it takes a breather. Accumulation in the base is outstanding at 6 to 0. Money supply is excellent, running higher ahead of the price even as the stock moves laterally. Relative strength is breaking out again, a bullish indication.
Volume: 36.7K Avg Volume: 59.932K
BUY POINT: $5.59 Volume=90K Target=$6.98 Stop=$5.17
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rita.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$55.75; -0.75; optionable): Midwest regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
STATUS: Put. Financial stocks have come under pressure. FITB broke the important 200 day MVA (57.52) in late February and tanked to 53. It recovered the past week, rising to the exponential 50 day MVA (56.90). It lost steam there Wednesday and Thursday, then started rolling over again Friday as volume surged well above average. Money flow is diving lower ahead of the price. We expect FITB is going to follow it lower and back down toward 53, maybe lower.
Volume: 2.711M Avg Volume: 1.855M
BUY POINT: $55.62 Volume=2M Target=$53.12 Stop=$56.22
POSITION: FIQ QK - May $55p (-37 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fitb.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
KEY (Keycorp--$30.65; -0.55; optionable): Bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/key.html
STATUS: Put. KEY peaked in early march after a strong run and quickly fell below the 50 day MVA (31.07). It attempted to recover that level last week, but Friday looked as if it gave up, falling back below that support on rising, though still below average volume. Our initial target is the November and January highs. That will give us a nice return. If it is selling hard through that level and on toward the 200 day MVA (28.09) we will let it fall.
Volume: 1.573M Avg Volume: 1.514M
BUY POINT: $30.52 Volume=1.8M Target=$29 Stop=$31.35
POSITION: KEY RZ - June $32.50p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/key.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AVID, COH, DIS, EBAY; GTRC, HD; KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, TJX; UTSI, XMSR
AVID: Making another run at the 50 day MVA, but not a lot of strength behind it as it languishes below the 200 day MVA.
EBAY: Holding up very well in its flat, lateral move as the rest of the market sells.
KKD: Diving lower again. It has lost its crisp, maybe its cream.
XMSR: Still working in a very nice base.
TGT: Has renewed life and vigor since announcing it was going to dump its money losing segments.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
AEOS: Rejuvenated, so to speak. Broke out of a 7 month base in late February, tested the move with a dip to the 18 day MVA, then rebounded on solid trade. Excellent action as it shows strength as buyers move back in after the breakout. Look for a test of 25 that holds as an entry point.
MIKN: A gaming stock exploding higher Friday on tremendous trade as it breaks over the 200 day MVA, working up the right side of a 8 month cup base.
Downside:
NTLI: Trying to recover over the 10 day MVA, but looks to be failing and ready to continue lower.
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACMR 03/10 Cup 25.07 -0.38 25.55 30.45 64K 211K 24.95
Current. Pull back tapping 24.95 at the low and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Holding at the 10 day MVA and may be ready to move up.
AWRE 03/17 Test 50 3.96 -0.25 4.22 5.12 36K 97K 3.92
Buy Not Issued. Holding the 18 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
BRCD 03/18 Cup hdl 7 -0.11 7.55 9.12 5.3M 16M 6.98
Buy Not Hit. Pull back testing the 18 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
BRCM 03/04 A Wedge 37.95 -1.3 42.55 48.95 8.8M 14M 40.35
Buy Not Hit.
BRCM 01/24 Test BO 37.95 -1.3 40.24 46.25 8.8M 11M 38.94
Current. Stock is not performing so we will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
BRKT 01/12 Cup 18.77 -0.12 16.55 19.72 61K 188K 18.88
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move showing a doji under the 18 day MVA on low volume.
CCI 03/09 Test BO 12.85 -0.15 13.38 16.12 1.6M 2M 12.58
Buy Not Issued. Pull back testing the 18 day MVA and rallied on much higher, but still below average volume. May test back to 12.80.
CNMD 03/17 Flat 28.18 -0.07 29.62 35 166K 230K 27.55
Buy Not Hit. Pull back below the 18 day MVA, holding above support on lower, below average volume.
CPST 03/08 Test BO 2.39 -0.13 2.84 3.92 482K 1.1M 2.68
Buy Not Issued. Fell below 50 day MVA on rising volume. Stock is not performing as expected so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
DAB 02/18 Cup hdl 14.7 -0.06 14.39 17.28 20K 175K 14.35
Current. Making a lateral move holding the 10 day MVA on low volume.
DANKY 02/19 DB hdl 4.38 -0.11 4.75 5.88 226K 625K 4.55
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on much lower volume. Looking for a bounce from here. Testing the break out.
DIS 08/09 Test 50 25.39 -0.34 22.06 26.48 8.1M 9M 25.95
DRAX 03/08 DB hdl 5.37 +0.19 5.5 6.62 768K 500K 5.09
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA for a great move on excellent volume surge. Needs to clear resistance at 5.50.
DYNT 03/13 Test 18 3.35 -0.14 3 3.75 290K 178K 3.15
Current. Pull back on average volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 68.3 -1.04 71.78 82.25 6.9M 10M 68.15
Current. Pull back holding just below the 18 day MVA on higher, but average volume. Holding above support. Still in the pattern.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 68.3 -1.04 34.72 46 6.9M 12M 67.48
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 68.3 -1.04 31.22 46 6.9M 12M 67.48
Current.
ESMC 03/16 Test 18 15.85 -0.51 17.96 21.55 768K 1.5M 17.06
Current. Hanging on at the 18 day MVA, a point it has to hold
after turning over immediately following the big break
higher. A new stock offering is what hurt it.
FMTI 01/17 Cup hdl 8.05 +0.49 3.48 4.35 1.3M 228K 7.04
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a nice gain up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge. Needs to clear resistance at 8.35.
GILTF 03/16 Flat 9.4 +0.65 8.64 10.38 1.8M 500K 8.72
Current. Another explosive move up the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge.
HD 03/06 Cup hdl 36.68 -0.31 37.68 45.25 7.6M 12M 36.25
Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
IPT 03/03 Cup hdl 1.49 +0.06 1.31 2.15 141K 296K 1.35
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Needs to clear resistance at 1.57.
KFX 02/24 Cup hdl 9.27 +0.16 8.46 10.15 238K 508K 8.92
Current. Tapped 9.11 at the low and rallied showing a doji just over the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
KRY 03/18 Flat 3.28 -0.11 3.52 4.41 834K 1.1M 3.24
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on much lower, but average volume. Needs to clear resistance of 3.49.
LGND 03/09 Test BO 18.84 +0.37 19.06 22.38 1.5M 2.1M 17.73
Buy Not Issued. Volume is getting better but want to see breakaway
trade on the move through the breakout point.
LIFC 02/28 Cup hdl 7.5 -0.03 7.75 9.28 87K 180K 7.21
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on low volume.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 32.06 -0.32 0 0 262K 1.3M 33.88
MAMA 03/16 Test BO 10.53 -0.02 10.04 13.12 5.9M 6M 9.32
Current. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on average volume.
MDCI 03/11 Test BO 19.8 -0.08 20.06 23.22 52K 150K 19.08
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA showing a doji on low volume.
MRBA 03/09 Cup hdl 6.39 +0.12 6.77 815 52K 300K 6.29
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 18 day MVA and rallied holding over the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
NRD 03/06 Rv H&S 17.24 +0.2 17.35 20.85 116K 207K 16.14
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA tapping 17.57 at the high, but gave some of it back. Needs to clear resistance at 17.26.
NSS 03/16 Test BO 11.82 -0.17 12.06 14.22 93K 200K 11.22
Buy Not Issued. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on much lower, but average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
NUTR 02/14 FlyPlat 19.65 +0.12 16.49 19.74 78K 150K 19.48
Current. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume.
OMCL 02/03 A Wedge 20.06 +0.1 20.68 24.72 158K 450K 19.92
Current. Tapped 20.62 at the intraday high, but gave most of it back showing a tight doji on low volume. Making a lateral move above the simple 50 day MVA
OMNI 03/13 Cup hdl 8.5 -0.05 7.57 8.94 771K 784K 7.38
Current. Gapped past the target and immediately sold back to
close flat. Never heard any news that caused the gap.
Still in a nice uptrend after the breakout.
ONCY 03/03 Cup hdl 4.89 +0.32 4.55 5.48 218K 156K 4.38
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Needs to clear resistance at 4.99.
ONNN 12/16 Test BO 7.5 -0.15 7.42 8.88 1.7M 3.4M 7.67
Current. Needs to hold here and retake the 50 day. Not bad action
given the SOX tank, but has to prove itself.
OS 03/01 Flat 7.48 +0.74 7.12 8.55 795K 312K 6.58
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and exploded with an excellent volume surge.
PD 03/11 Test 50 83.34 -0.95 83.32 91 2.1M 3M 82.34
Current. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on higher, but still below average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
PETM 03/03 Cup hdl 25.59 -0.06 27.81 31.85 1.1M 3M 25
Current. Tapped 26 at the high, but gave it back holding a doji under the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
PKZ 03/01 A Wedge 28.66 +0.29 27.51 31.72 415K 553K 28.04
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
PLCE 03/06 Cup hdl 30.23 +0.24 31.98 26.65 321K 562K 30.12
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied as stock moves up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on higher, but still below average volume.
PTNR 03/11 Dbl btm 8.38 -0.11 8.48 10.15 54K 200K 8.02
Current. Pull back on low volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
PXD 03/15 DB hdl 33.17 -0.45 34.12 40 487K 1.3M 32.48
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it all back on low volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
RATE 03/13 Cup hdl 17.37 -0.35 19.15 23 56K 200K 17.08
Current. Gapped down showing a doji under the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Holding above support.
RTI 02/11 Test 50 15.21 -0.27 16.62 19.55 71K 158K 16.18
Exited. Exited when stock began to tank on rising volume.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 36.79 -0.27 30.35 36.75 3.7M 6M 37.32
Current. Gapped down showing a doji just above the simple 50 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May test the 50 day MVA.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 36.79 -0.27 26.3 30.94 3.7M 6M 37.32
Current.
SMTS 02/28 Cup hdl 10.9 +0.21 9.97 11.82 49K 137K 10.92
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA and rallied hodling just above the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Holding the 10 day MVA on low volume.
SNCI 03/02 Test BO 11.51 -0.13 10.8 12.95 137K 469K 10.92
Current. Pull back on very low volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
TGT 08/09 Flat 44.73 -0.16 41.45 50 3.1M 5.7M 43.44
TINY 02/28 Test 50 16.28 0 18.62 22.22 134K 936K 16.62
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move just under the 10 day MVA on low volume.
TJX 03/06 Flat 23.96 +0.02 24.75 30 1.3M 3.3M 23.45
TKO 03/17 Test 18 4.5 0 4.66 5.62 303K 500K 4.29
Buy Not Issued.
TKO 02/21 Cup hdl 4.5 0 3.98 4.99 303K 350K 4.46
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move after testing the 18 day MVA.
TSCO 01/24 Cup 38.88 -0.6 45.22 55 279K 719K 42.05
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 38.88 -0.6 28.06 31.44 279K 494K 42.65
Current. Moving down holding just above support on low volume.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 38.88 -0.6 23.42 27.62 279K 603K 42.65
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 38.88 -0.6 21.88 26 279K 603K 42.65
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 38.88 -0.6 19.3 22.19 279K 577K 42.65
Current.
VWPT 03/02 Cup hdl 2.68 +0.02 1.84 2.65 998K 2M 2.38
Moving up showing a doji on very low volume. Needs to clear resistance at 2.80
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 36.04 +0.18 31.24 37 515K 296K 33.54
Current. Continue with its uptrend pattern on much lower, but still above average volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
GGG 03/18 Put 40.46 -0.04 40.22 38.22 135K 165K 41.38
Buy Not Hit. Beginning to make a lateral move showing a doji on lower, but average volume.
HHH 03/15 Put 49.51 -0.13 47.36 45.35 234K 350K 48.88
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 50.16, but could not hold the gain showing a doji just above the 18 day MVA on average volume. Needs to break through support here.
LRCX 03/10 Put 23.44 -0.65 24.05 22 2.9M 4M 24.38
Current. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA for a nice move on rising volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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