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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
Leader plays: May not turn into split plays, but solid technical patterns.
Play Date: 03/20/2004
RVI (Retail Ventures--$6.98; +0.07; no options): Retail department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. RVI is working laterally over the 18 day MVA (6.74) in a very tight range on very low volume. A very nice consolidation of the breakout from a very nice 16 week cup with handle base. The stock shot higher to start the month, rallied to 7.40, and as since moved in this consolidation. Excellent 9 to 1 accumulation in the base (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows money moved into the stock during its correction. Strong volume on the breakout shows the demand for the stock. Now we just wait for the stock to finish this consolidation and resume the breakout move again on above average volume. Nice.
Volume: 69.4K Avg Volume: 103.568K
BUY POINT: $7.12 Volume=155K Target=$8.98 Stop=$6.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rvi.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
UHCO (Universal American Finl.--$11.92; +0.20; no options): Life insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uhco.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Insurance is performing well and UHCO is no exception. It broke out from a 16 week cup base two weeks back, blasting higher on strong trade. Accumulation in the base is very strong at 5 to 1, setting the foundation for the breakout. It has come back to test the 18 day MVA (11.32) on the pullback, very often the point where a breakout tests. Volume was lower on the pullback until Friday when it started higher and volume jumped to well above average. Money low is rising ahead of the price and relative strength is breaking out again, a very bullish indication. Looking for the breakout move to continue after this nice little pullback.
Volume: 315.052K Avg Volume: 209.918K
BUY POINT: $12.25 Volume=315K Target=$14.72 Stop=$11.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uhco.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
WWCA (Western Wireless--$24.99; +0.08; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Pennant. WWCA has formed a base on base pattern, a nice 7 week pennant on the heels of a 4.5 month cup base that broke higher in January. The current base shows positive 2 to 1 accumulation, 5 to 1 in the prior base. These combination bases work well to wring out the sellers and set up good runs. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to make a breakout again, a sign of the stock outperforming the rest of the market. volume has dropped well below average this month as it makes this lateral move; quiet volume is what you want to see. It is the quiet before the breakout storm. Just being patient and waiting for a strong volume move over the recent highs this month.
Volume: 1.046M Avg Volume: 1.642M
BUY POINT: $26.12 Volume=2.5M Target=$31.35 Stop=$24.68
POSITION: WRQ HE - Aug. $25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wwca.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
BWA (Borg Warner--$84.41; -1.84; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwa.html
STATUS: Put. A pre-split, but showing little positive action to the upside. It sold hard below the 50 day MVA (89.07) to start the month and then made a token appearance at the 10 day MVA (86.79) Wednesday and Thursday with volume shriveling as it did. Friday it bowed out, tanking below near support at 85 on a big volume spike. Money flow is diving ahead of price. We are looking for BWA to follow it lower.
Volume: 423.4K Avg Volume: 233.725K
BUY POINT: $84.21 Volume=255K Target=$81.05 Stop=$86.88
POSITION: BWA QQ - May $85p (-45 delta) options available Monday
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bwa.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/02/2004
NUS (Nu Skin--$20.35; -0.01; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA (19.48). Still one of our best looking continuing bonus plays, testing back to the 50 day last week after the breakout and jumping back up on strong, above average volume Wednesday. Ended the week on low trade as it held over the short term MVA while the rest of the market sold. Money flow continues to rally ahead of price, and we are just being patient and waiting for the stock to follow it. Looks solid.
Volume: 145.7K Avg Volume: 334.864K
BUY POINT: $21.08 Volume=455K Target=$25.15 Stop=$19.91
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nus.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04.
APPB: Forecast 4-28-04.
BCR: Researching next date.
BMET: 3-17-04. No split announced. Holding at the 50 day MVA; not bad action in a tanking market Friday.
CAKE: 4-19-04
CDWC: Researching the next date.
CHS: Researching next date.
ELAB: Researching next date.
HUG: Forecast 3-9-04. No announcement, but holding its break higher in a declining market.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LXK: Researching next date. No complaints on this break higher and very good action as the market sells.
MBG: No split on 3-4-04. Still working higher up the 18 day MVA.
MBT: Researching date.
NCEN: Forecast 4-15.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SHFL: Announced its split Wednesday.
SONC: Forecast 3-15-04. No split announced and making another test of the 50 day MVA.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
STN: Forecast 4-20-04 before the open.
TOL: Researching the nest date as no announcement with the board meeting on 3-2. Very nice pullback to test the breakout.
UOPX: Researching a date but could come this week.
VAR: VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Researching next date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$82.35; -0.62; optionable): Medical Laboratories. Researching the exact date, but a nice pattern has formed up.
BACKGROUND. Announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-01 at a price of $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DGX was a stellar performer in 2000 through the first half of 2002. It peaked at 95 and then fell into the current base, a 2 year pattern, and now working on the handle, a very nice flat move just over the 50 day MVA (80.08) on mostly below average volume. A very tight range as it moves laterally, completing the base. Positive accumulation in the long base (24 to 20) is setting the stage for the next breakout and run. Relative strength is also strong, an indication that DGX is outperforming most of the market. Volume was has started to swell the past few sessions, something that can indicate the stock is trying to put together its next move higher. We will wait and let it make the strong breakout and see if DGX can regain its old form.
Volume: 696.2K Avg Volume: 648.435K
BUY POINT: $85.97 Volume=973K Target=$100 Stop=$81.72
POSITION: DGX HQ - Aug. $85c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/13/2004
APPB (Applebees Intl.--$39.12; +0.03; optionable): Fern bar restaurant. Forecast to announce a split on 4-28-04 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings or in the alternative in May in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-9-02 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting at a stock price at $39.84. The shareholder meeting was on 5-8-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Broke higher on strong trade to end February as the restaurant industry reported good patronage, APPB included. It has since come back to test the 50 day MVA (39.07) on very low, below average volume. That lower volume shows few sellers as it makes the test, particularly when compared to the selling in the overall market. This test follows the breakout from a 4 month flat base. A solid performer, and we are just waiting for it to hold here and deliver a high volume break to the upside to jump in.
Volume: 248.63K Avg Volume: 490.452K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=739K Target=$46.78 Stop=$39.35
POSITION: AQB HH - Aug. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appb.html
Play Date: 03/16/2004
FINL (Finish Line--$34.27; +0.08; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 4-2-04.
BACKGROUND: No prior splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/finl.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Another stock testing the 50 day MVA (33.76) after a good breakout to start the month. Volume has contracted on the pullback just as it should, coming in well below average the past two weeks as it made the dip. Moving laterally the past four sessions in a tight range. Money flow remains strong as it tests the move out of its double bottom with handle pattern in early January.
Volume: 173.907K Avg Volume: 449.646K
BUY POINT: $34.48 Volume=661K Target=$39.85 Stop=$33.58
POSITION: IUL HG - Aug. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/finl.html
Play Date: 03/18/2004
GTK (Gtech Holdings--$56.90; +0.30; optionable): Lottery software. Forecast to announce a split on 4-8-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-6-02 at a stock price of $58.90. The annual shareholder meeting was on 8-18-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtk.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. And yet another 50 day MVA test (56.25). Note the pattern? Strong stocks have moved well, and while the overall market sells off these strong ones hold key support and prepare from there to make the next move back up. These are the stocks to keep track of, to watch, and to be ready to move into when the turn comes. GTK is in a sustained uptrend for the past year and one-half. That makes it a bit extended for expectations of further huge gains, but the 50 day MVA test often evokes solid buying in strong stocks. It can give us a good move off of this level and bring us a good return on the next 50 day MVA bounce.
Volume: 615.7K Avg Volume: 602.454K
BUY POINT: $58.08 Volume=904K Target=$66.78 Stop=$56
POSITION: GTK FK - June $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gtk.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
NCEN (New Century Financial--$49.86; +1.13; optionable): Mortgage investment. Forecast 4-15-04 with earnings (company has not yet confirmed this date).
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in May 2003 at a price of $42.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncen.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume was up Friday, though still below average, as NCEN is still working on putting the finishing touches on its 8 week base showing 3 to 1 accumulation. Nice base holding over the 18 day MVA (49.07) on the lows. Very strong in a selling market. Just letting it tell us when it is ready with a high volme breakout.
Volume: 861.403K Avg Volume: 920.016K
BUY POINT: $51.52 Volume=1.2M Target=$61 Stop=$48.24
POSITION: URE HJ - Aug. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncen.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
STN (Station Casinos--$40.80; +1.06; optionable): Resorts and casinos. Forecast to announce a split on 4-20-04 before the market opens on in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in June 2000 at a stock price of approximately around $15. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stn.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Looked at it hard Friday as STN rallied on rising but still below average volume. That volume kept us out of the stock even as it moved up out of the lateral consolidation that formed after breaking out of its 13 week cup with handle base in February. Still strong across the board, including money flow and a relative strength breakout to boot. Want to see above average trade on the continued move.
Volume: 386K Avg Volume: 375.82K
BUY POINT: New: $41.06 (orig. $39.66) Volume=550K Target=$45.75 Stop=$38.08
POSITION: STN GH - July $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stn.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 03/16/2004
DWCH (Datawatch--$10.37; -0.1; no options): Business software. Splits 2:1 on 4-9-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dwch.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Continues the low, below average volume lateral move over the 18 day MVA (9.55) move after exploding higher out of a 6 month flat base. Holding up very well in a flat, lateral test as the market sells. Have to be patient with these and let them make the break higher on a solid jump in trade.
Volume: 18.453K Avg Volume: 120.766K
BUY POINT: $10.92 Volume=175K Target=$13.15 Stop=$10.16
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dwch.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
FOSL (Fossil--$33.88; +0.07; optionable): Watches, accessories, etc. Splits 3:2 on 4-9-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another strong stock moving laterally as the test of its strong break higher in late February that broke it out of a 24 week flat base. Tremendous money flow. Relative strength is already breaking out even as the stock moves laterally, a very bullish sign. Looking for FOSL to finish working through this lateral test and provide the next entry point with a solid, above average volume break above this range.
Volume: 174.149K Avg Volume: 232.078K
BUY POINT: New buy point: $34.88 (orig. $33.82) Volume=310K Target=$39 Stop=$32.35
POSITION: FUA FF - June $30c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 03/16/2004
IDSA (Industrial Services of America--$28.82; +0.05; no options): Waste Management. Splits 2:1 on 3-31-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idsa.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Trying hard to continue the move back up from this test of a huge surge in February. Volume jumped back above average Friday as the stock posted a strong move only to give it back. Given the market, no biggie. Watching for another volume break higher in a bit better market. Strong money flow remains ahead of the price.
Volume: 1.335M Avg Volume: 819.319K
BUY POINT: New: $28.88 (orig. $27.25) Volume=2M Target=$35 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idsa.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 03/06/2004
EBAY (Ebay--$68.3; -1.04; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Flat base. Holding up very well, moving laterally above the 50 day MVA (66.88) that has risen to meet the stock as it has spent the past 9 weeks moving laterally. Given the market action, EBAY is holding up very well. Money flow remains strong, and of course relative strength is solid given its lateral move as the market sells. Waiting for EBAY to provide the breakout to give us the next entry point.
Volume: 6.915M Avg Volume: 7.233M
BUY POINT: $71.78 Volume=10M Target=$82.25 Stop=$68.15
POSITION: XBA GN - July $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$37.43; +0.09; no options): Apparel stores (business apparel)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. A strong performer that burst out of a 18 week base in February. It surged to 40ish and then started moving laterally to consolidate the move. Volume has dropped off as JOSB has moved laterally, holding over the 10 day MVA (37.18) in a tightening range. Excellent action as the rest of the market sells. May take another week to complete the lateral move, or it may do it Monday. We are just going to be ready.
Volume: 109.206K Avg Volume: 236.533K
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=500K Target=$45.45 Stop=$36.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
Play Date: 03/02/2004
TTI (Tetra Technologies--$26.43; +0.16; no options): Oil and gas fluid management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tti.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After its split in August TTI formed a 4.5 month cup with handle that broke out and ran to 28. It then fell into the current 11 week base, forming this second consolidation in its base on base pattern over the 50 day MVA (25.69). Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the current base. Friday volume jumped back above average as TTI showed a tight doji at the 18 day MVA. Looking for a high volume breakout move to enter.
Volume: 169.4K Avg Volume: 143.889K
BUY POINT: $27.22 Volume=193K Target=$31.55 Stop=$25.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tti.html
End part 2 of 3
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