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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: CHTT; TOM; TXT
Best Plays:
1) GTI: Nice pattern and volume cranking up.
2) MOLX: Rolling over at the 200 day MVA.
3) NSTK: Ready to bounce up after a nice breakout test.
4) BEBE: Continues to look solid ahead of the breakout.
5) WIND: Volume is starting higher as it holds over the 18 day MVA.
6) PLXT: Throwing off volume spikes as it works laterally.
7) TXT: Volume is jumping as it rolls over at the 50 day MVA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
GTI (Graftech Intl.--$14.22; +0.19; optionable): Graphite & carbon-base products for energy industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gti.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A nice 10 week base moving up the 50 day MVA (13.01) on the lows and below a constant top at 14.50. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 4 to 0 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume. Money flow is moving up sharply ahead of price and relative strength is breaking out. Friday the stock tried the breakout move, rallying to 15 intraday but then falling back for a modest gain on the close. Like these bases as they build pressure from below and often provide very explosive breakouts. Looking for it to follow the strong money flow and breakout and hold the move on the continued strong trade we have seen the past three sessions.
Volume: 1.661M Avg Volume: 1.116M
BUY POINT: $14.65 Volume=1.8M Target=$17.62 Stop=$13.62
POSITION: GTI FC - June $15c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gti.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
NSTK (Nastech Pharmaceuticals--$13.26; +0.49; no options): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nstk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A nice late February breakout from a 9 month flat base that formed more or less over the 200 day MVA (9.79). Strong 9 to 5 accumulation in the pattern has set the foundation for the breakout as money moved in as it consolidated. Volume has surged this month as the stock rallied. It has now come back for its second test of the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA), holding at the 18 day MVA (12.41) on the session lows. Tremendous money flow that has continued to move higher ahead of price even as prices tested back. Looks ready to continue the breakout move as volume jumped Friday as NSTK started up and over the 10 day MVA (12.92).
Volume: 180.861K Avg Volume: 89.816K
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=135K Target=$16.12 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nstk.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
WAT (Waters Corp.--$38.86; -0.34; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wat.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WAT is in a big, 27 month base, the last 8 weeks forming the handle as it came back to test the 50 day MVA (36.87). Even as it has moved laterally and slightly lower money flow has continued to move higher while relative strength breaks out, a good confirmation of the Thursday jump higher. It is trying to make the breakout, and if it can give us the volume break higher, it has plenty of room overhead. It was billed as a 'low tech' technology play back in the boom. It has taken awhile but it is now ready to make the move higher.
Volume: 410K Avg Volume: 738.588K
BUY POINT: $39.45 Volume=850K Target=$45.58 Stop=$37.75
POSITION: WAT HH - Aug. $40c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wat.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
BWA (Borg Warner--$84.41; -1.84; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwa.html
STATUS: Put. A pre-split, but showing little positive action to the upside. It sold hard below the 50 day MVA (89.07) to start the month and then made a token appearance at the 10 day MVA (86.79) Wednesday and Thursday with volume shriveling as it did. Friday it bowed out, tanking below near support at 85 on a big volume spike. Money flow is diving ahead of price. We are looking for BWA to follow it lower.
Volume: 423.4K Avg Volume: 233.725K
BUY POINT: $84.21 Volume=255K Target=$81.05 Stop=$86.88
POSITION: BWA QQ - May $85p (-45 delta) options available Monday
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bwa.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
MOLX (Molex--$29.95; -0.44; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/molx.html
STATUS: Put. Trending lower since the January peak, MOLX broke the 200 day MVA (30.86) two weeks back. It rebounded to test that level, but bumped its head at the 20o day all week Friday it turned over. Volume was lower, but it certainly looks as if MOLX is ready for the next leg lower. Want to see more volume as it rolls down. As we have discusse,d when the 200 day MVA is breached, stocks can really get roughed up.
Volume: 600.683K Avg Volume: 731.809K
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=750K Target=$27.78 Stop=$30.52
POSITION: OXQ QF - May $30p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/molx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/17/2004
ACXM (Acxicom--$20.81; +0.43; optionable): Information technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acxm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Bouncing Friday off the 18 day MVA (20.32), but volume could not make the move with it. Thus we held off entering. ACXM broke out of a big 17 month base in February and has run to 21.63 on the initial breakout move. In the recent market selling ACXM has faded back to test the breakout, holding the breakout point at 20 on very low volume. That low volume pullback shows there is little selling after the strong breakout. Once the short term profit takers are gone then the stock will be ready to move back up. It started the move, but again, needs more trade.
Volume: 481.814K Avg Volume: 696.511K
BUY POINT: $20.56 Volume=800K Target=$24.72 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: UQA HD - Aug. $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acxm.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
BEBE (Bebe Stores--$30.79; +0.45; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bebe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Not a lot of change as it continues to work laterally in the handle, holding over the 10 day MVA (30.32) as it works laterally below 31.50 on mostly below average volume. Given the market action, not a lot of change is pretty good, particularly as BEBE continues to hold its solid 5.5 month base sporting strong 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Friday volume was back above average as BEBE tried to make a move higher but gave back over half the move. Looks very good; just letting it make the clean break higher.
Volume: 157.273K Avg Volume: 147.064K
BUY POINT: $31.62 Volume=200K Target=$36.35 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bebe.html
Play Date: 02/03/2004
NPRO (Napro Biotherapeutics--$2.90; +0.20; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/npro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NPRO broke higher on solid trade toward late February, but then it could not extend the move. It has moved laterally over the 50 day (2.60) since then, holding the move but unable to extend it. Volume faded well below average as it did. Friday NPRO was moving higher after a tap at the 50 day MVA. Waiting patiently for the breakout to resume. When we see an above average volume move through the new buy we will e ready for new positions.
Volume: 129.314K Avg Volume: 268.961K
BUY POINT: New: 2.98 (orig. $2.87) Volume=402K Target=$3.58 Stop=$2.67
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/npro.html
Play Date: 03/03/2004
PLXT (PLX Technology--$10.60; -0.03; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plxt.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Holding up very well as the semiconductors tank. PLXT has moved laterally for a week in a very tight range over the 18 day MVA (10.34) as it looks to be finishing an 18 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA (9.82). Money flow is moving higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to make the breakout with the stock. PLXT threw off big volume spikes Wednesday and Friday, a possible indication that it is ready to make a strong move. Again, holding up very well given the plight of semiconductors overall.
Volume: 298.935K Avg Volume: 165.017K
BUY POINT: $11.26 Volume=218K Target=$13.42 Stop=$10.47
POSITION: PIU GB - July $10c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plxt.html
Play Date: 03/09/2004
SLTC (Selectica--$5.00; +0.29; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sltc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SLTC is still working on its 22 week base that has formed over the 50 day MVA (4.79). That is always a good sign of support for a stock. Outstanding 6 to 0 accumulation in the pattern. Volume started higher Friday as SLTC bucked the market and it posted a decent gain. Want volume to continue to rally as SLTC continues this surge.
Volume: 70.781K Avg Volume: 162.98K
BUY POINT: $5.37 Volume=242K Target=$6.48 Stop=$4.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sltc.html
Play Date: 02/23/2004
TEO (Telecom Argentina--$10.96; +0.06; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume is really backing off overall as TEO continues to form the handle below 11 to its 10 week base. Excellent money flow and relative strength is moving for a breakout even as the stock moves laterally. Very strong versus the market. All we need to see is the next strong, above average volume move.
Volume: 172.8K Avg Volume: 408.938K
BUY POINT: New: $11.31 (orig. $10.61) Volume=520K Target=$12.72 Stop=$10.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/teo.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
WIND (Wind River Systems--$10.39; +0.06; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wind.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another stock holding up very well compared to the market. It continues to work laterally over the 18 day MVA (10.09) after a strong breakout two weeks back as it continued the December breakout from its 3.5 month double bottom base. Money flow continues to look strong, turning back up even as the stock price moves laterally. Volume was up to average Friday, and it is volume that we are looking at to give it the boost to get it moving on the breakout run again.
Volume: 739.063K Avg Volume: 714.965K
BUY POINT: $10.72 Volume=850K Target=$12.88 Stop=$9.97
POSITION: QWV HB - Aug. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wind.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 03/18/2004
GGG (Graco--$40.46; -0.04; optionable): Viscous materials measurement, etc. devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggg.html
STATUS: Put. Still struggling below the 50 day MVA (41.09), trying to hang on after dumping below that level two weeks back. It made a rather weak attempt to move back over that level last week but failed. It showed a doji Friday on continued average trade. Looking for it to dump harder to move in.
Volume: 135K Avg Volume: 124.553K
BUY POINT: $40.22 Volume=165K Target=$38.22 Stop=$41.38
POSITION: GGG QH - May $40p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ggg.html
Play Date: 03/15/2004
TXT (Textron--$53.11; -1.03; optionable): Helicopters, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txt.html
STATUS: Put. Struggling below the 50 day MVA (54.50) as well. It too tried a low volume bounce back up to the 50 day after tanking through that level two weeks back. It has held at the 52.50 level back in January, so we want to see some volume as it breaks down through that level. Volume was indeed jumping Friday as it sold, and we are looking for that to continue as it makes the next drop from here.
Volume: 906.8K Avg Volume: 697.771K
BUY POINT: $52.48 Volume=800K Target=$49.12 Stop=$53.38
POSITION: TXT PK - Apr. $55c (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/txt.html
End part 2 of 3
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