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stock recommendation, stock prices
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Thursday night play results:
KFY: Surging on strong trade.
KRY: Gapped higher but could not hold the move as volume dropped.
TTP: Ran higher but turned back and closed flat. Still solid and not bad action given the market selling. Just being patient with it.
GGG: Tried to check up on its rollover at the 50 day MVA, but still looks weak.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
NSTK (Nastech Pharmaceuticals--$13.26; +0.49; no options): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nstk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A nice late February breakout from a 9 month flat base that formed more or less over the 200 day MVA (9.79). Strong 9 to 5 accumulation in the pattern has set the foundation for the breakout as money moved in as it consolidated. Volume has surged this month as the stock rallied. It has now come back for its second test of the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA), holding at the 18 day MVA (12.41) on the session lows. Tremendous money flow that has continued to move higher ahead of price even as prices tested back. Looks ready to continue the breakout move as volume jumped Friday as NSTK started up and over the 10 day MVA (12.92).
Volume: 180.861K Avg Volume: 89.816K
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=135K Target=$16.12 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nstk.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
RITA (Rita Medical Systems--$5.40; +0.01; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rita.html
STATUS: Breakout test. RITA jumped out of a nice 13 week cup base to start the month, running to 5.50. It has moved laterally the last week, holding its gains on the breakout on declining volume. That is very good action as it shows no one wanting to sell it as it takes a breather. Accumulation in the base is outstanding at 6 to 0. Money supply is excellent, running higher ahead of the price even as the stock moves laterally. Relative strength is breaking out again, a bullish indication.
Volume: 36.7K Avg Volume: 59.932K
BUY POINT: $5.59 Volume=90K Target=$6.98 Stop=$5.17
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rita.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
WWCA (Western Wireless--$24.99; +0.08; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Pennant. WWCA has formed a base on base pattern, a nice 7 week pennant on the heels of a 4.5 month cup base that broke higher in January. The current base shows positive 2 to 1 accumulation, 5 to 1 in the prior base. These combination bases work well to wring out the sellers and set up good runs. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to make a breakout again, a sign of the stock outperforming the rest of the market. volume has dropped well below average this month as it makes this lateral move; quiet volume is what you want to see. It is the quiet before the breakout storm. Just being patient and waiting for a strong volume move over the recent highs this month.
Volume: 1.046M Avg Volume: 1.642M
BUY POINT: $26.12 Volume=2.5M Target=$31.35 Stop=$24.68
POSITION: WRQ HE - Aug. $25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wwca.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$55.75; -0.75; optionable): Midwest regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
STATUS: Put. Financial stocks have come under pressure. FITB broke the important 200 day MVA (57.52) in late February and tanked to 53. It recovered the past week, rising to the exponential 50 day MVA (56.90). It lost steam there Wednesday and Thursday, then started rolling over again Friday as volume surged well above average. Money flow is diving lower ahead of the price. We expect FITB is going to follow it lower and back down toward 53, maybe lower.
Volume: 2.711M Avg Volume: 1.855M
BUY POINT: $55.62 Volume=2M Target=$53.12 Stop=$56.22
POSITION: FIQ QK - May $55p (-37 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fitb.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
MOLX (Molex--$29.95; -0.44; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/molx.html
STATUS: Put. Trending lower since the January peak, MOLX broke the 200 day MVA (30.86) two weeks back. It rebounded to test that level, but bumped its head at the 20o day all week Friday it turned over. Volume was lower, but it certainly looks as if MOLX is ready for the next leg lower. Want to see more volume as it rolls down. As we have discusse,d when the 200 day MVA is breached, stocks can really get roughed up.
Volume: 600.683K Avg Volume: 731.809K
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=750K Target=$27.78 Stop=$30.52
POSITION: OXQ QF - May $30p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/molx.html
Good movers Friday: DRAC; FMTI; GILTF; KFY; TOM
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ATVI 02/24 Test BO 14.09 +0.34 13.76 15.84 1.9M 2.3M 13.25
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 13.61 at the intraday low and rallied as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Have not entered the play because volume was not there.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 94.44 -0.07 80.93 92.95 274K 500K 93.88
Current. Pull back showing a tight doji just above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Making a lateral move.
BRCM 03/04 A Wedge 37.95 -1.3 42.55 48.95 8.8M 14M 40.35
Buy Not Hit. Stock is not performing so we will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
CALM 01/29 Cup hdl 39 +0.13 36.62 43.75 67K 650K 37.72
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on very low volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
CCI 03/09 Test BO 12.85 -0.15 13.38 16.12 1.6M 2M 12.58
Buy Not Issued. Pull back testing the 18 day MVA and rallied on much higher, but still below average volume. May test back to 12.80.
CDWC 03/06 Test BO 66.79 -0.81 70.12 82 420K 1.2M 67.72
Buy Not Hit. Continue to pull back below the 50 day MVA, but holding at support on low volume. Stock needs to hold here or will look to drop.
CHT 01/22 Cup hdl 17.5 -0.35 15.75 18.92 430K 1.1M 17.06
Current. Pull back on lower, but average volume. Still in uptrend.
CLKS 02/26 Cup hdl 2.46 -0.1 2.57 3.22 295K 301K 2.48
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move below the 18 day MVA showing a doji on average volume.
CNMD 03/17 Flat 28.18 -0.07 29.62 35 166K 230K 27.55
Buy Not Hit. Pull back below the 18 day MVA, holding above support on lower, below average volume.
CPST 03/08 Test BO 2.39 -0.13 2.84 3.92 482K 1.1M 2.68
Buy Not Issued. Fell below 50 day MVA on rising volume. Stock is not performing as expected so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
CYTC 03/17 Test 18 19.4 -0.39 20.48 24.65 1.6M 2.2M 19.34
Buy Not Hit. Pull back holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Stock is holding the 18 day MVA.
DANKY 02/19 DB hdl 4.38 -0.11 4.75 5.88 226K 625K 4.55
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on much lower volume. Looking for a bounce from here. Testing the break out.
DNA 01/03 Test BO 104.85 -1.72 95.44 102 2.1M 3M 105.12
Current. Pull back holding the 50 day MVA on much lower, below average volume. Looking for a bounce off the 50 day MVA.
DRAX 03/08 DB hdl 5.37 +0.19 5.5 6.62 768K 500K 5.09
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA for a great move on excellent volume surge. Needs to clear resistance at 5.50.
DWCH 03/16 Test BO 10.37 -0.1 10.92 13.15 18K 175K 10.16
Buy Not Hit. Pull back showing a tight doji as stock makes a lateral move on low volume.
FINL 03/16 Test 50 34.27 +0.08 34.48 39.85 174K 661K 33.58
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 34.89 at the high, but gave some of it back on low volume. Moving up off the 50 day MVA.
FMTI 01/17 Cup hdl 8.05 +0.49 3.48 4.35 1.3M 228K 7.04
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a nice gain up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge. Needs to clear resistance at 8.35.
FOSL 03/13 Test BO 33.88 +0.07 33.82 39 174K 310K 32.35
Buy Not Issued. Continue to make a low volume ascent up the 10 day MVA. Have not entered the play, because volume is not there.
GILTF 03/16 Flat 9.4 +0.65 8.64 10.38 1.8M 500K 8.72
Current. Another explosive move up the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge.
GLDN 03/15 Test BO 33.54 -0.67 35.25 43 54K 200K 33.42
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but reversed holding below the 18 day MVA. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
HMP 03/08 A Wedge 1.86 -0.07 2.16 2.84 77K 150K 2.08
Current. Pull back on low volume holding support. Testing the break out.
HOLX 02/28 FlyPlat 19.34 -0.74 20.88 24.62 181K 300K 19.42
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but reversed holding above the 50 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Stock has not performed so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 54.76 -0.23 50.22 58 222K 500K 53.54
Pull back on low volume as stock tests the break out.
INTV 03/08 Flat 14.81 -0.18 13.91 16.85 426K 500K 13.94
Current. Pull back on average volume. Still in uptrend.
KFX 02/24 Cup hdl 9.27 +0.16 8.46 10.15 238K 508K 8.92
Current. Tapped 9.11 at the low and rallied showing a doji just over the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
KFY 03/18 Cup hdl 14.96 +0.81 14.46 17.35 1.4M 300K 13.52
Current. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
KRY 03/18 Flat 3.28 -0.11 3.52 4.41 834K 1.1M 3.24
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on much lower, but average volume. Needs to clear resistance of 3.49.
LIFC 02/28 Cup hdl 7.5 -0.03 7.75 9.28 87K 180K 7.21
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on low volume.
MAMA 03/16 Test BO 10.53 -0.02 10.04 13.12 5.9M 6M 9.32
Current. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on average volume.
MER 03/04 A Wedge 60.6 -0.71 63.79 72 5.4M 6.5M 60.32
Current. Tapped 61.35 at the intraday high (18 day MVA), but gave it back holding just above the 50 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Holding the 50 day MVA.
MER 02/14 A Wedge 60.6 -0.71 61.96 70.55 5.4M 6.5M 60.32
Current.
MICU 02/25 Flat 22.67 +0.2 23.82 28 297K 537K 22.72
Current. Tapped 22.08 at the intraday low and rallied showing a doji just below the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA
MRBA 03/09 Cup hdl 6.39 +0.12 6.77 815 52K 300K 6.29
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 18 day MVA and rallied holding over the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
NMGC 03/03 Flat 4.8 -0.14 5.1 6.18 165K 488K 4.88
Current. Pull back holding below the 18 day MVA, but above support on low volume. Testing the break out.
NUS 03/02 Test 50 20.35 -0.01 21.08 25.15 146K 455K 19.91
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume.
OCR 03/15 Test 50 43.55 -0.4 44.88 49.38 423K 743K 43.94
Buy Not Issued. Pull back below the 50 day MVA. The stock has not performed so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
OMCL 02/03 A Wedge 20.06 +0.1 20.68 24.72 158K 450K 19.92
Current. Tapped 20.62 at the intraday high, but gave most of it back showing a tight doji on low volume. Making a lateral move above the simple 50 day MVA
OMNI 03/13 Cup hdl 8.5 -0.05 7.57 8.94 771K 784K 7.38
Current. Gapped past the target and immediately sold back to
close flat. Never heard any news that caused the gap.
Still in a nice uptrend after the breakout.
ONCY 03/03 Cup hdl 4.89 +0.32 4.55 5.48 218K 156K 4.38
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Needs to clear resistance at 4.99.
ONNN 12/16 Test BO 7.5 -0.15 7.42 8.88 1.7M 3.4M 7.67
Current. Needs to hold here and retake the 50 day. Not bad action
given the SOX tank, but has to prove itself.
PD 03/11 Test 50 83.34 -0.95 83.32 91 2.1M 3M 82.34
Current. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on higher, but still below average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
PKZ 03/01 A Wedge 28.66 +0.29 27.51 31.72 415K 553K 28.04
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
PLCE 03/06 Cup hdl 30.23 +0.24 31.98 26.65 321K 562K 30.12
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied as stock moves up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on higher, but still below average volume.
PTNR 03/11 Dbl btm 8.38 -0.11 8.48 10.15 54K 200K 8.02
Current. Pull back on low volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
PXD 03/15 DB hdl 33.17 -0.45 34.12 40 487K 1.3M 32.48
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it all back on low volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
RATE 03/13 Cup hdl 17.37 -0.35 19.15 23 56K 200K 17.08
Current. Gapped down showing a doji under the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Holding above support.
SGMS 03/01 Dbl btm 17.57 -0.23 18.12 21.75 480K 1.1M 16.85
Buy Not Issued. Pull back testing the 18 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
SPAB 02/10 A Wedge 3.77 0 3.49 4.35 23K 451K 3.68
Current. Showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Making a lateral move.
STG 03/13 Test 18 3.85 +0.04 4.04 5 180K 563K 3.76
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied moving up the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
TEO 02/23 Test 50 10.96 +0.06 10.61 12.72 173K 520K 10.48
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
TINY 02/28 Test 50 16.28 0 18.62 22.22 134K 936K 16.62
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move just under the 10 day MVA on low volume.
TKO 03/17 Test 18 4.5 0 4.66 5.62 303K 500K 4.29
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to make a lateral move after testing the 18 day MVA.
TLCV 03/11 Test 18 10.95 -0.11 11.08 13.12 332K 1.2M 10.32
Buy Not Issued. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
TMTA 03/11 Flat 3.59 -0.14 4.18 5 2.2M 5.1M 3.89
Buy Not Hit. Tanked below the 50 day MVA. The stock has not performed so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
TOM 02/28 Cup hdl 17 +0.47 16.84 20.12 636K 850K 16.22
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain hitting a 52 week high on higher, but average volume.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 38.88 -0.6 23.42 27.62 279K 603K 42.65
Current. Moving down holding just above support on low volume.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 38.88 -0.6 21.88 26 279K 603K 42.65
Current.
TTP 03/18 Test 18 5.2 0 5.28 6.59 316K 300K 4.91
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 5.43 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on higher, but average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move
ULTI 02/09 Cup hdl 14 +0.13 11.38 13.62 228K 120K 13.02
Current. Continue with uptrend pattern on stronger above average volume.
VAR 03/03 Flat 87.01 -0.72 88.11 100 381K 750K 85.62
Current. Pull back testing the 18 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Continue to make a lateral move.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 87.01 -0.72 64.5 74.25 381K 1.1M 85.62
Current.
VNWK 03/01 FlyPlat 3.75 +0.15 4.19 5.45 121K 500K 3.89
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain, but on low volume.
VOXX 02/21 A Wedge 18.66 -0.09 16.29 19.62 183K 160K 17.92
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on slightly above average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA. Needs to clear resistance at 19.40
VRNT 03/15 Cup hdl 28.38 +0.61 27.88 33.45 195K 200K 26.94
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
VSAT 02/07 BO 24.67 -1.29 26.12 31.24 274K 351K 27.04
Current. Lower volume so giving it a session to recover. If
not we close it.
WEBX 02/25 Test 18 27.28 +0.53 27.27 31.35 1M 1M 27.38
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied up the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
WIND 03/13 Test BO 10.39 +0.06 10.72 12.88 739K 850K 9.97
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on higher, but average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
WMI 03/17 A Wedge 29.49 -0.19 30.25 36.32 2.1M 2.8M 28.13
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down testing the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on stronger above average volume. Still in good shape.
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 36.04 +0.18 31.24 37 515K 296K 33.54
Current. Continue with its uptrend pattern on much lower, but still above average volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ASF 02/11 Put 16.16 +0.14 15.04 12.55 100K 453K 15.74
Current. Low volume rally holding the simple 50 day MVA. Should roll over from here.
AZO 03/10 Put 83.68 -0.77 84 81.28 1.2M 1.1M 83.66
Current. Moving down the 10 day MVA on above average volume showing a doji.
GGG 03/18 Put 40.46 -0.04 40.22 38.22 135K 165K 41.38
Buy Not Hit. Beginning to make a lateral move showing a doji on lower, but average volume.
HHH 03/15 Put 49.51 -0.13 47.36 45.35 234K 350K 48.88
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 50.16, but could not hold the gain showing a doji just above the 18 day MVA on average volume. Needs to break through support here.
LRCX 03/10 Put 23.44 -0.65 24.05 22 2.9M 4M 24.38
Current. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA for a nice move on rising volume.
UTX 03/16 Put 85.4 -2.43 87.84 84 4.6M 3M 87.65
Stock continues to tank down the 10 day MVA on very strong volume. Waiting for a low volume rally, for possible entry.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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