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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Weekend play results:
NSTK: Gapped higher but could not hold the move. Tapped 18 day, still in good shape.
RITA: Still a very nice lateral move over the 10 day MVA.
WWCA: Nope. Broke the 50 day MVA on rising volume.
FITB: Still struggling though recovered off low. Just waiting for it to resume the fall.
MOLX: Fell hard on strong trade.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/22/2004
GGAL (Grupo Financiero Galicia--$8.77; 0.00; no options): Foreign bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggal.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A nice pattern forming over the 50 day MVA (7.93) after a nice long run up off the June 2002 low. It is currently working on the breakout from a 9 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). That shows money is still moving into the stock even during this pullback. It is working up toward the top of the pattern at 9, moving laterally the past week in a tighter range. Volume has dropped off while it makes this move; you like to see volume quiet down as a stock approaches the breakout and then start to run higher as the breakout nears. Monday volume was higher though still below average as GGAL held the 10 day MVA (8.58) and held its ground in a selling market. Just waiting for the big breakout from this pattern to move in.
Volume: 190.794K Avg Volume: 267.195K
BUY POINT: $9.15 Volume=401K Target=$11 Stop=$8.51
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ggal.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
LTD (The Limited--$19.29; -0.13; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. We have been watching LTD in this pullback from a nice break higher in February where it peaked at 21. It faded back on mostly lower volume, then volume spiked Friday as it started off the 50 day MVA (18.95). Monday it slipped a bit with the market, but after hours it raised its guidance for March sales and Q1 estimates. Looking to pick this solid stock up as it makes the volume move higher.
Volume: 3.206M Avg Volume: 2.573M
BUY POINT: $19.68 Volume=3.9M Target=$23.62 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: LTD HD - Aug. $20c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ltd.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
MXT (Metris--$6.76; +0.07; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a nice lateral handle to its 10 month base showing strong 11 to 5 accumulation, moving laterally the past week on lower volume while the market sells. It gapped lower Monday but held the pattern and rallied back for a modest gain on rising though average volume. Money flow is excellent and we are looking for another break higher on strong trade to move in.
Volume: 1.343M Avg Volume: 1.109M
BUY POINT: $7.02 Volume=1.7M Target=$8.45 Stop=$6.48
POSITION: MXT GU - July $7.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mxt.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
SBUX (Starbucks--$37.20; +0.41; optionable): Expensive coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. A great winner in the market (stock and coffee) as it keeps posting stronger sales in more markets. It has slipped back to the 50 day MVA (36.46) this month in the market selling, working back on lower, mostly below average volume. Volume has moved up the past two sessions, back above average as it gapped to the 50 day Monday and then posted a gain on solid trade. Looks ready to resume the move up after this test.
Volume: 4.484M Avg Volume: 3.022M
BUY POINT: $37.52 Volume=4.5M Target=$45 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: SQX GU - July $37.50c (49 delta) or SQX GG - July $35c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sbux.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/22/2004
TECD (Tech Data--$38.75; -1.24; optionable): Wholesale PC related products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tecd.html
STATUS: Put. TECD double topped in January and March. It broke through the 50 day MVA (40.24) last week, eased back up to that level Friday and then rolled over Monday on strong trade. Looks ready to continue lower.
Volume: 840.078K Avg Volume: 475.5K
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=550K Target=$36.05 Stop=$39.25
POSITION: TDQ QH - May 40p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tecd.html
End part 2 of 3
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