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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: BWA; GGG; MOLX; TXT; UTX
Best Plays:
1) MXT: Nice volume as it prepares for the breakout.
2) RECN: Nice volume and a breakout takes it to a new high.
3) LTD: Raised guidance and looks ready for a break higher off the 50 day.
4) TECD: Turning lower below the 50 day on stronger trade.
5) ARRY: Ready for the next buy point.
6) STSI: Volume is jumping as it looks ready to make the breakout.
7) WAT: Good test and looks ready to move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/22/2004
LTD (The Limited--$19.29; -0.13; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. We have been watching LTD in this pullback from a nice break higher in February where it peaked at 21. It faded back on mostly lower volume, then volume spiked Friday as it started off the 50 day MVA (18.95). Monday it slipped a bit with the market, but after hours it raised its guidance for March sales and Q1 estimates. Looking to pick this solid stock up as it makes the volume move higher.
Volume: 3.206M Avg Volume: 2.573M
BUY POINT: $19.68 Volume=3.9M Target=$23.62 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: LTD HD - Aug. $20c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ltd.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
MXT (Metris--$6.76; +0.07; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a nice lateral handle to its 10 month base showing strong 11 to 5 accumulation, moving laterally the past week on lower volume while the market sells. It gapped lower Monday but held the pattern and rallied back for a modest gain on rising though average volume. Money flow is excellent and we are looking for another break higher on strong trade to move in.
Volume: 1.343M Avg Volume: 1.109M
BUY POINT: $7.02 Volume=1.7M Target=$8.45 Stop=$6.48
POSITION: MXT GU - July $7.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mxt.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
RECN (RSCS Connection--$34.20; +0.24; no options): Staffing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Formed the current 10 week base on top of the 50 day MVA (32.99), showing excellent 5 to 0 accumulation in the pattern (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows money moving into the stock during the base and sets the foundation for a stronger breakout. Volume jumped well above average Monday as the stock held the 18 day MVA (34.03), posting a modest gain as the market sold. A very nice consolidation of the early January breakout. Excellent money flow and relative strength is ready to breakout on with the stock a sign of its outperforming the market. Very nice, and a breakout sends it to a new high.
Volume: 262.481K Avg Volume: 137.409K
BUY POINT: $35.75 Volume=225K Target=$42.92 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/recn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/22/2004
CCL (Carnival Corp.--$41.97; -0.54; optionable): Cruises
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccl.html
STATUS: Put. CCL reported earnings after hours that were not bad, but given the pattern we are going to be ready to move in on the downside if the market is not impressed. It crashed through the 50 day MVA (42.89) two weeks back, rallied back to that level, but showed a doji Friday and rolled over on major volume Monday. Looking to moving on the downside if it continues the fall.
Volume: 4.163M Avg Volume: 2.433M
BUY POINT: $41.75 Volume=3M Target=$39.72 Stop=$42.94
POSITION: CCL QV - May $43.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccl.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
TECD (Tech Data--$38.75; -1.24; optionable): Wholesale PC related products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tecd.html
STATUS: Put. TECD double topped in January and March. It broke through the 50 day MVA (40.24) last week, eased back up to that level Friday and then rolled over Monday on strong trade. Looks ready to continue lower.
Volume: 840.078K Avg Volume: 475.5K
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=550K Target=$36.05 Stop=$39.25
POSITION: TDQ QH - May 40p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tecd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/25/2004
ARRY (Array Biopharma--$8.79; +0.26; no options): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arry.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. After a nice breakout at the end of February, ARRY has come back to test the move, holding up at the 18 day MVA (8.53) on very low volume. A nice, easy pullback. Monday it hled the 18 day MVA after gapping lower, then rallied to post a gain. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout again. Looks like a great new entry point.
Volume: 86.988K Avg Volume: 250.363K
BUY POINT: New: $8.88 (orig. $7.90) Volume=300K Target=New buys: $10.65 (orig. positions $9.48) Stop=$8.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arry.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
BEBE (Bebe Stores--$29.87; -0.92; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bebe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Struggled some but managed to rebound and hold the 18 day MVA (29.89) on the close as volume rallied a bit further above average. Still hanging in there in the 5.5 month base, not bad in a market that tanked. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Being patient and letting it and the market work through this time.
Volume: 162.494K Avg Volume: 131.363K
BUY POINT: $31.62 Volume=200K Target=$36.35 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bebe.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
GTI (Graftech Intl.--$13.7; -0.52; optionable): Graphite & carbon-base products for energy industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gti.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Hanging in there as it dipped to the 18 day but then rallied to cut its losses and close at the 10 day MVA (13.65). Still a nice 10 week base moving up the 50 day MVA (13.03) on the lows and below a constant top at 14.50. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 4 to 0 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume. Money flow is moving up sharply ahead of price and relative strength is breaking out. Friday the stock tried the breakout move, rallying to 15 intraday but then falling back for a modest gain on the close. Held up well in a down market.
Volume: 747.9K Avg Volume: 1.068M
BUY POINT: $14.65 Volume=1.8M Target=$17.62 Stop=$13.62
POSITION: GTI FC - June $15c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gti.html
Play Date: 02/03/2004
NPRO (Napro Biotherapeutics--$2.88; -0.02; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/npro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Hanging in there after gapping lower again but rallying back to hold the pattern. A nice 10 month job, using the 50 day MVA (2.61) as support. Volume is still below average but edging higher. Again, being patient and letting it make the next volume breakout.
Volume: 153.903K Avg Volume: 246.045K
BUY POINT: New: 2.98 (orig. $2.87) Volume=402K Target=$3.58 Stop=$2.67
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/npro.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
NSTK (Nastech Pharmaceuticals--$12.65; -0.61; no options): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nstk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to continue the move off the 18 day MVA (12.43), gapping higher but then rolling over with the market. It still held the 18 day on the close as volume backed way off, coming in below average. A nice late February breakout from a 9 month flat base that formed more or less over the 200 day MVA. Strong 9 to 5 accumulation in the pattern has set the foundation for the breakout as money moved in as it consolidated. Tremendous money flow that has continued to move higher ahead of price even as prices tested back.
Volume: 85.944K Avg Volume: 88.863K
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=135K Target=$16.12 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nstk.html
Play Date: 03/09/2004
SLTC (Selectica--$5.01; +0.01; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sltc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the 22 week base that has formed over the 50 day MVA (4.79). That is always a good sign of support for a stock along with outstanding 6 to 0 accumulation in the pattern that shows money moving into the stock as well. Still solid with volume edging higher, but want to see strong trade on a breakout.
Volume: 61.693K Avg Volume: 158.681K
BUY POINT: $5.37 Volume=242K Target=$6.48 Stop=$4.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sltc.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
STSI (Star Scientific--$3.80; +0.30; no options): Specialty retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice handle still forming in the 9 month base. Volume in the handle has been lower and mostly below average. After a higher volume sell off Friday, STSI managed a modest gain Monday on even stronger trade. Money flow remains excellent, still moving higher ahead of price. Accumulation is outstanding at 12 to 3 accumulation. Just waiting for it to make the breakout move.
Volume: 360.984K Avg Volume: 174.409K
BUY POINT: $4.42 Volume=285K Target=$5.48 Stop=$4.11
POSITION: - Stocks (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stsi.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
WAT (Waters Corp.--$38.9; +0.04; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wat.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Not bad action as the market dumped lower. WAT tested the 18 day MVA (37.99) on the low and rebounded on rising though still below average volume to post a modest gain. Again, good action in this market. WAT is in a big, 27 month base, the last 8 weeks forming the handle as it came back to test the 50 day MVA (36.95). Money flow continues to move higher while relative strength breaks out, a good confirmation of the Thursday jump higher. It is trying to make the breakout, and if it can give us the volume break higher, it has plenty of room overhead.
Volume: 618.5K Avg Volume: 679.772K
BUY POINT: $39.45 Volume=850K Target=$45.58 Stop=$37.75
POSITION: WAT HH - Aug. $40c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wat.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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