stock recommendation, stock option

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good moves Monday: ONCY; GGG; KEY

Weekend play results:
MFN: Gapped higher then reversed on us.
RITA: Volume jumped as it tested the 10 day MVA and recovered.
FITB: Tanked but managed to rebound to hold the 10 day MVA. Still in trouble.
KEY: Gapped lower and kept selling.

New plays for Tuesday:

Upside:

Play Date: 03/22/2004
GGAL (Grupo Financiero Galicia--$8.77; 0.00; no options): Foreign bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggal.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A nice pattern forming over the 50 day MVA (7.93) after a nice long run up off the June 2002 low. It is currently working on the breakout from a 9 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). That shows money is still moving into the stock even during this pullback. It is working up toward the top of the pattern at 9, moving laterally the past week in a tighter range. Volume has dropped off while it makes this move; you like to see volume quiet down as a stock approaches the breakout and then start to run higher as the breakout nears. Monday volume was higher though still below average as GGAL held the 10 day MVA (8.58) and held its ground in a selling market. Just waiting for the big breakout from this pattern to move in.
Volume: 190.794K Avg Volume: 267.195K
BUY POINT: $9.15 Volume=401K Target=$11 Stop=$8.51
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ggal.html

Play Date: 03/22/2004
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$52.80; +0.19; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice 11 week base forming over the 50 day MVA (51.02). Tried to make the breakout Monday as volume shot higher, but gave most of the move back. Solid pattern after the breakout from a seven month base. The higher lows along the 50 day MVA (51.02) show the stock is working out the overhead supply. Breakouts tend to be strong from these patterns. Looking for APC to reload and provide a strong volume breakout that sticks.
Volume: 3.504M Avg Volume: 1.709M
BUY POINT: $53.48 Volume=2.6M Target=$61.55 Stop=$51.78
POSITION: APC HK - Aug. $55c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/apc.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/22/2004
CL (Colgate-Palmolive--$53.65; -1.10; optionable): Toothpaste and such
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cl.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in June, rallied back up in October and failed again. It has rallied back once more, but it hit that down trendline it formed with the June and October highs and rolled back over Monday. It fell through the 50 day MVA (54.32) Monday though volume did not surge. Looks ready to continue the fall as it has done previously off of this down trendline.
Volume: 1.918M Avg Volume: 2.661M
BUY POINT: $53.48 Volume=3M Target=$51.45 Stop=$54.38
POSITION: CL QK - May $55p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cl.html

SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.

AVID, COH, DIS, EBAY; GTRC, HD; KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, TJX; UTSI, XMSR

EBAY: Dumped through the 50 day MVA on strong trade, but we give it a session or two to recover.

XMSR: Setting up a bit better, shaking out the last sellers as it dips to the 18 day MVA and recovers in its handle.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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