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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Monday night play results:
GGAL: Still hanging in the handle as volume moved higher.
LTD: Gapped higher on solid volume but sold back all session. Will let it test and then move in on the bounce.
MXT: Gapped higher then sold back on low volume. Still solid.
SBUX: Still hugging the 50 day MVA.
TECD: Continued down on strong trade.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/23/2004
PDQ (Prime Hospitality--$11.20; +0.01; optionable): Lodging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdq.html
STATUS: Test breakout. PDQ broke out of a 13 week flat base two weeks back and in the market selling it has held the breakout, moving laterally over the 18 day MVA . Accumulation in the base is excellent at 6 to 1 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). That shows a lot of money moving into the stock as it based. Excellent money flow. The range has tightened the past week, and it looks as if PDQ is crouching, ready to spring higher and continue the breakout.
Volume: 176.5K Avg Volume: 238.954K
BUY POINT: $11.52 Volume=350K Target=$13.85 Stop=$10.94
POSITION: PDQ GB - July $10c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pdq.html
Play Date: 03/23/2004
SWK (Stanley Works--$39.73; +1.70; optionable): Small tools
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swk.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume has been surging the past week as SWK readies for the breakout from its 8 week base that has formed over the 50 day MVA (37.96). That shows solid support for the stock. Accumulation in the short base is outstanding at 5 to 1, another indication of the support for the stock. Money flow is shooting higher and relative strength is breaking out ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication.
Volume: 1.392M Avg Volume: 432.454K
BUY POINT: $40.12 Volume=800K Target=$46 Stop=$38.22
POSITION: SWK GH - July $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/swk.html
Play Date: 03/23/2004
WMAR (West Marine--$29.69; +0.52; optionable): Boating supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wmar.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. These are very nice stores, not musty, dockside warehouses. The stock has been on a tear after breaking out in late November, bouncing up the 18 day MVA (30.42) four times. Stocks typically bounce 4 to 5 times up the short term MVA and then come back and test the 50 day, regroup, and then start the next run up the 18 day MVA. We are looking to pick it up on a volume move off this level. Solid money flow.
Volume: 274.977K Avg Volume: 144.954K
BUY POINT: $30.45 Volume=295K Target=$35 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: XWQ GF - July $30c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wmar.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/23/2004
TEK (Tektronix--$29.74; -0.84; optionable): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Put. TEK broke down through the 50 day MVA (30.71) two weeks back, rallied back to that level on low volume, then reversed at that level Friday on very strong trade. Tuesday is started back down on stronger trade. Looks like a weak right shoulder to a 12 week head and shoulders pattern.
Volume: 901.3K Avg Volume: 545.09K
BUY POINT: $29.62 Volume=771K Target=$28 Stop=$30.75
POSITION: TEK QF - May $30p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tek.html
Good movers Tuesday: DRAX; GILGT; MAMA; PLCE; RITA; TKO; MOLX; TECD
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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