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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
We apologize for the delay in part 3. We had a computer crash just as we were preparing to isse the report.
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 03/23/2004
CFC (Countrywide Financial--$91.50; +0.40; optionable): Mortgage investment. Splits 3:2 on 4-15-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cfc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. After a strong run from the mid-January breakout, CFC is taking a bit of a deeper rest here, coming back the past two weeks in a very orderly fashion and on very low, below average volume. It could make the rebound at any time so we want to be ready. A solid stock that made us money on its prior pre-split run.
Volume: 1.504M Avg Volume: 2.374M
BUY POINT: $92.25 Volume=2.8M Target=$97.25 Stop=$89.95
POSITION: CFC ER - May $90c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cfc.html
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 03/23/2004
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$44.51; -0.06; optionable): Personal care products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ACV surged out of a 16 week flat base to start the month, racing up to 46 on the move. It has moved laterally the past two weeks on lower, mostly below average volume trade. Money flow is outstanding even as the stock pulled back on lower trade. Tuesday it showed a doji at the 18 day MVA, often a signal that the pullback is over. Very strong, holding its gains as the market sells. Looking for volume to kick up as it starts moving higher.
Volume: 370.1K Avg Volume: 493.409K
BUY POINT: $45.62 Volume=700K Target=$52 Stop=$44.12
POSITION: ACV FI - June $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Leader plays: May not turn into split plays, but solid technical patterns.
Play Date: 03/23/2004
PDQ (Prime Hospitality--$11.20; +0.01; optionable): Lodging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdq.html
STATUS: Test breakout. PDQ broke out of a 13 week flat base two weeks back and in the market selling it has held the breakout, moving laterally over the 18 day MVA . Accumulation in the base is excellent at 6 to 1 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). That shows a lot of money moving into the stock as it based. Excellent money flow. The range has tightened the past week, and it looks as if PDQ is crouching, ready to spring higher and continue the breakout.
Volume: 176.5K Avg Volume: 238.954K
BUY POINT: $11.52 Volume=350K Target=$13.85 Stop=$10.94
POSITION: PDQ GB - July $10c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdq.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
RVI (Retail Ventures--$6.77; -0.13; no options): Retail department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding the 18 day MVA (6.75) as it continues testing the breakout from its very nice 16 week cup with handle base. The stock shot higher to start the month, rallied to 7.40, and as since moved in this consolidation. Excellent 9 to 1 accumulation in the base (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows money moved into the stock during its correction. Strong volume on the breakout shows the demand for the stock. Again we are just waiting for the breakout to occur on strong volume.
Volume: 59.8K Avg Volume: 98.545K
BUY POINT: $7.12 Volume=155K Target=$8.98 Stop=$6.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rvi.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
UHCO (Universal American Finl.--$11.94; +0.08; no options): Life insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uhco.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Bounced up off the 18 day MVA (11.44) but has stalled on this move though it is still in the nice test of its breakout from the 16 week cup base. Accumulation in the base is very strong at 5 to 1, setting the foundation for the breakout. Money flow continues to rise ahead of the price and relative strength is breaking out again, a very bullish indication.
Volume: 104.328K Avg Volume: 202.818K
BUY POINT: $12.25 Volume=315K Target=$14.72 Stop=$11.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uhco.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04.
APPB: Forecast 4-28-04.
BCR: Researching next date.
BMET: 3-17-04. No split announced. Struggling at the 50 day MVA.
CAKE: 4-19-04
CDWC: Researching the next date.
CHS: Researching next date.
DGX: Researching exact date.
ELAB: Researching next date.
HUG: Researching the next date.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LXK: Researching next date. No complaints on this break higher and very good action as the market sells.
MBG: No split on 3-4-04. Still working higher up the 18 day MVA.
MBT: Researching date.
NCEN: Forecast 4-15.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SONC: Forecast 3-15-04. No split announced and making another test of the 50 day MVA.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
STN: Forecast 4-20-04 before the open.
TOL: Researching the nest date as no announcement with the board meeting on 3-2. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA.
UOPX: Researching a date but could come this week.
VAR: VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
WFMI: Researching next date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/23/2004
CNMD (Conmed--$27.86; +0.22; optionable): Forecast to announce a split in April in conjunction with earnings. The company has been able to confirm a date at this time.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 8-9-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $32. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-18-04 at 3:30 ET. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnmd.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. An excellent breakout in November and run up the 18 day MVA (28.33). After that nice run to mid- February it is taking a rest, moving laterally and lower on mostly below average volume. It has come back to test the 50 day MVA (27.31). Volume jumped back above average Tuesday, just what you want to see when a stock tests the 50 day. Excellent money flow and relative strength holding up very well as the stock tests. Looking for continued volume as it moves through the 18 day MVA.
Volume: 234.149K Avg Volume: 158.863K
BUY POINT: $28.42 Volume=240K Target=$34 Stop=$27.18
POSITION: KQD HE - Aug. $25c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnmd.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/13/2004
APPB (Applebees Intl.--$39.94; +1.15; optionable): Fern bar restaurant. Forecast to announce a split on 4-28-04 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings or in the alternative in May in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-9-02 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting at a stock price at $39.84. The shareholder meeting was on 5-8-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Gapped up off the 50 day MVA (39.09) on strong, above average volume. It still fell shy of the buy point, but it held over the 18 day MVA (39.67). Very solid test of the earlier breakout from its 4 month flat base. Has the volume, and want to see it continue as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 603.133K Avg Volume: 464.136K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=739K Target=$46.78 Stop=$39.35
POSITION: AQB HH - Aug. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appb.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$82.2; +0.61; optionable): Medical Laboratories. Researching the exact date, but a nice pattern has formed up.
BACKGROUND. Announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-01 at a price of $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally in that tight range along the 18 day MVA (81.96) as it continues the handle to its 2 year base. Positive accumulation in the long base (24 to 20) is setting the stage for the next breakout and run. Relative strength is also strong, an indication that DGX is outperforming most of the market. Volume was up again Tuesday, moving above average. Looking for the breakout on strong trade to move in.
Volume: 983.5K Avg Volume: 612.181K
BUY POINT: $85.97 Volume=973K Target=$100 Stop=$81.72
POSITION: DGX HQ - Aug. $85c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Play Date: 02/07/2004
OSI (Outback Steakhouse--$48.29; +1.39; optionable): Steakhouse attempting to be Australian. Forecast to announce a split on 4-15-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but base upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in November 1991 at approximately $26. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Coming off the 50 day MVA (46.23) as it tests the breakout form a nice 11 week cup with handle base. Volume shot higher Tuesday as it started the move to continue the breakout. Ready to move in on a strong volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 581.9K Avg Volume: 476.181K
BUY POINT: $48.68 Volume=650K Target=$51.96 Stop=$47.68
POSITION: OSI HI - Aug. $45c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osi.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 03/16/2004
DWCH (Datawatch--$10; -0.45; no options): Business software. Splits 2:1 on 4-9-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dwch.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still a very nice test of the breakout, holding over the 18 day MVA (9.68) as it does. Volume kicked up Monday and it looked as if it was ready. Just having to be patient and let it make the move. Solid test after exploding higher out of a 6 month flat base.
Volume: 63.947K Avg Volume: 125K
BUY POINT: $10.92 Volume=175K Target=$13.15 Stop=$10.16
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dwch.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
FOSL (Fossil--$33.48; +0.21; optionable): Watches, accessories, etc. Splits 3:2 on 4-9-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA (33.02), showing a doji at that level as volume started to edge higher. A very strong stock that is holding its gains as the rest of the market sold. Nice test of that breakout from a 24 week flat base and showing excellent money flow.
Volume: 204.657K Avg Volume: 221.272K
BUY POINT: New buy point: $34.88 (orig. $33.82) Volume=310K Target=$39 Stop=$32.35
POSITION: FUA FF - June $30c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
HOV (Hovnanian Enterprises--$85.02; -0.39; optionable): Residential construction. Splits 2:1 on 3-29-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hov.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Holding the 18 day MVA (85.14) on continued below average volume as it completes the handle to its 15 week base. Just have to be patient with this stock and let it show the volume breakout. The range is tightening up at the 18 day MVA, and that can signal a break higher is coming.
Volume: 701K Avg Volume: 863.954K
BUY POINT: $88.75 Volume=1.4M Target=$99 Stop=$85.22
POSITION: HOV ER - May $90c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hov.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 02/28/2004
COH (Coach--$39.87; +0.44; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. COH has come back to test the 50 day MVA (39.17), a bit deeper than we wanted it to go but holding well at that level. Volume started higher Tuesday as COH showed a doji at that level. That can signal a move up is coming, but we need to let it make the break higher, clearing the short term MVA. Money flow is turning back up here, a good sign the stock is preparing to continue the move higher.
Volume: 1.149M Avg Volume: 1.492M
BUY POINT: $41.66 Volume=2.5M Target=$47.88 Stop=$40.96
POSITION: COH HH - Aug. $40c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 09/16/2003
IGT (International Game Technology--$41.46; +1.14; optionable): Video gambling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice volume surge as IGT moved up off the 18 day MVA (40.64) as it looks like the test of the early March breakout has been completed and is successful. Looking for continued solid trade as IGT continues the move up through the new buy point.
Volume: 4.19M Avg Volume: 2.003M
BUY POINT: New buy point: $42.12 (orig. $29.05) Volume=4.7M Target=$48.55 Stop=$40.38
POSITION: IGX GH- July $40c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
LTD (The Limited--$19.69; +0.4; optionable): Apparel stores (The Limited, Victoria's Secret)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. We have been watching LTD in this pullback from a nice break higher in February where it peaked at 21. It faded back on mostly lower volume, then volume spiked Friday as it started off the 50 day MVA (18.95). Monday it slipped a bit with the market, but after hours it raised its guidance for March sales and Q1 estimates. Looking to pick this solid stock up as it makes the volume move higher.
Volume: 4.563M Avg Volume: 2.59M
BUY POINT: $19.68 Volume=3.9M Target=$23.62 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: LTD HD - Aug. $20c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ltd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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