yahoo stock, stock watch

Begin Part 2 of 2

THE PLAYS:

Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.

BEST PLAYS: IVX and TOL broke out today! SEIC still looks good, showing stronger volume in its handle, and APOL continued to look solid today, holding its lateral movement (with a slight gain) on stronger volume; it is getting ready to move. K broke out to a new high. AEOS continues its lateral movement as volume drops lower looks good! GGG looks as if it is making its move.

Best Plays:
1) GMCR: Moving up in an interesting pattern.
2) BPFH: A great volume shakeout.
3) IVX: Breakout!

New:

Thinly traded, but a good sector and popular product:

GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee--$34.03; +1.41; no options): Food Wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmcr.html
STATUS: Has formed a flat base/ascending wedge pattern after a fine run up from an April low of 15 to the current pattern's high at 36.17. Volume has been for the most part below average throughout the consolidation, moving up slightly higher Thursday (29,800; avg. 65,000), GMCR moving up with it from support at the 32.50 range (10 day MVA). We are looking for a breakout on a volume surge; the stock shows strong money flow, and relative strength is breaking out. Target: 55.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 36.30, on volume of 88,000 or better. Stop: 33.40. A buy on breakout up to 38.12.
POSITION: Stock only.

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gmcr.html

BPFH (Boston Private Fincl--$22.13; -0.03; no options): Regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bpfh.html
STATUS: A wedging-type pattern above support of the 18 day MVA (21.74) as volume dries up to practically nothing (16,400 Thursday; avg. 117,000). Today's low tapped the moving average, and BPFH then moved up to close with a doji after pulling off a high of 22.60 (resistance). The stock had a good recovery run from the 18 range after it broke below support of its 50 day MVA (20, at that time) in June, racing up to a high of 22.78 at the first of this month (that is the pattern high). We like the low-volume shakeout and anticipate a breakout over the high. BPFH shows huge money flow and strong buying. Target: 28-29.
BUY POINT: 22.91, on volume of 158,000 or better. Stop: 21.08 (50 day MVA is at 20.90). A buy on the breakout up to 24.06.
POSITION: Stock only.

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bpfh.html

Updated:

IVX (Ivax--$40.30; +2.15; optionable (IVX): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivx.html
STATUS: Broke out of the cup with handle as volume surged to 2.98 million (avg. 1.3 million). The stock remains within our limit for buying on a breakout (buy point is 39.73), and looks strong from here. Showing great money flow and good buying, and relative strength broke out. Target: 47.
BUY POINT: 40.88 on 3 million or higher volume, and remains a buy on breakout up to 41.72. Stop: Moved up to 37.61.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 or $40 calls to buy (IVX IG or IH). NOTE: Please check with your broker in the morning to make sure deltas are at 0.70 or higher; they are unavailable for this stock at the time of this writing.

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ivx.html

THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.

THE LEADERS: We have revamped this portfolio, dropping for now CPN, SGR, NATI and BRKS. Those stocks have, for the most part, dropped off and need to form bases or do some more work in ones already existing. To the New Leader section we are adding DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, and BMET. In the Previous Leader section, VRSN, VRTS, ADBE and SEBL are retained. Ones dropped include AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS and SCMR. All of these stocks will be kept on watch in context with improvement in their sectors and the market.

New Leaders: ESRX, LLL, ACS, NVDA, DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, BMET.
Previous Leaders in which we are still interested: ADBE, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS

ACS broke out of that three-day consolidation on outstanding volume. EBAY was selling down toward its 50 day MVA ahead of earnings, but was trading higher after hours. We will check out how it reacts tomorrow.

UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have revamped the Up & Comers portfolio, and are dropping EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST for now, adding BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG and AEOS.

LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI, THQI, BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG, AEOS.

LOW popped higher following Wednesday's nice move, but volume was much lower and the stock couldn't hold the high; looks like a pullback to 38 at least. BJ dropped back to the 18 day MVA on lower volume, so we are looking for a bounce. RCII is setting up for a move, showing good price/volume action the last few days. We'll be watching for a move over the June high. AEOS still looks great in what now looks like a forming handle to the cup base.

AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$39.94; +0.10; optionable (AQU): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
STATUS: We are now calling this one a cup with handle, as volume dropped back slightly (1.43 million; avg. 1.7 million) and the stock dropped back into another tight doji, the low tapping near support of the 10 day MVA (39.03). We are looking for a breakout over the handle (July) high of 41.19 on strong volume. The base is 7 weeks long, and formed after the April/May run up to the high at the start of the base, 43. Showing strong money flow, relative strength that is out ahead of price, and good buying. Target: 48-50.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 43.13, on volume of 2.5 million or better. Stop: 39.68.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $35 calls to buy (AQU KG; low open interests).

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aeos.html

MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS

We should have the final results of the new portfolio this week. If you have any more requests, send them now!

BRCM (Broadcom Corp--$42.40; +3.40; optionable (RCQ): Electronics: Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: We like the ascending wedge pattern BRCM has formed since the first of the month. Earnings were out after the bell yesterday, and despite expected losses the company reported signs of stabilization for the second half. Volume is high (above the average of 10.5 million) throughout this pattern versus the low volume we like to see, but the strong volume today of 22 million helped the stock break through the short term down trendline (connecting the May highs). BRCM shows a tight doji on the gap up-bounce from the 18 and 50 day MVAs (39.59 and 39.33), with the low of 41.80 tapping down to the trendline. The stock was off its high of 45.44, a touch at resistance, and may re-test the trendline before breaking out of the pattern. Target: 50 (May high).
BUY POINT: 45.57, on minimum breakout volume of 14 million. Stop: 41.92. A buy on breakout up to 47.85.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $35 or $40 calls to buy (RCQ KG or RCQ KH).

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/brcm.html

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

yahoo stock
stock watch