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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: BWA; VRNT; TXT; RECN
Best Plays:
1) NVDA: Ready to run higher in a NASDAQ rebound
2) AKSJ: Ditto.
3) MXT: Great pattern ready to go.
4) TLCV: Money flow continues to run higher as the stock tests and holds the 18 day MVA.
5) WAT: Ready for the breakout move.
6) WSTM: Volume swelling as the stock looks ready to follow that money flow.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/24/2004
CRXL (Crucell--$8.25; +0.13; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crxl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CRXL is trying to make the breakout from its 10 week pattern. The base formed over the 50 day MVA (7.32), a sign that it was being supported during the base. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), and money flow is rallying higher ahead of price. On top of that, relative strength is breaking out ahead of the stock a very bullish indication. Just want to see strong trade as it continues the move.
Volume: 152.366K Avg Volume: 245.318K
BUY POINT: $8.35 Volume=350K Target=$10.06 Stop=$7.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crxl.html
Play Date: 03/24/2004
NVDA (Nvidia--$23.08; +0.99; optionable): Semiconductors (sound, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Double bottom. NVDA is working on a 10 week pattern that is trying to form up into a double bottom. It tested to 22 in late January, bounced to 24, then sold to the 200 day MVA (20.87) on the second leg, undercutting the first. It has moved up off that level, showing a good spike Wednesday as volume moved solidly above average. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation at this stage of the base is very good. So good we are willing to start at least a partial position on another solid volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 6.561M Avg Volume: 4.534M
BUY POINT: $23.38 Volume=6M Target=$28 Stop=$22.05
POSITION: UVA FX - June $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Play Date: 03/24/2004
QQQ (QQQ Options--$34.42; +0.39; optionable): NASDAQ 100 Trust Series 1
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qqq.html
STATUS: Testing the 200 day MVA. Similar to NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100 is trying to form a bottom and bounce. We are looking to play a sustained move up to the exponential 50 day MVA at 36. From there we will see what NASDAQ has in it.
Volume: 119.05M Avg Volume: 90.945M
BUY POINT: $34.78 Volume=136M Target=$36 Stop=$33.96
POSITION: QAV FG - June $33c (80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qqq.html
Play Date: 03/24/2004
RHAT (Red Hat--$20.01; +0.60; optionable): Operating system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhat.html
STATUS: Cup. Reported much better than expected results and gapped higher Wednesday. It is a stock we were thinking about last night, but figured it would do this gap and tank action. It managed to hold onto some of the gain as volume shot off the scale. It also has some decent accumulation in the 10 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA (18.09). Money flow was already strong and is now shooting higher. On the intraday low it filled the gap; thus it may be ready to make the move that sticks now that the hype has had its shot. May make another test back, but we will just wait and let it make the next move back through the buy point.
Volume: 42.345M Avg Volume: 4.835M
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=7.3M Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.1
POSITION: RCV FD - June $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhat.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/18/2004
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$29.01; +0.12; optionable): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ASKJ blasted higher to start the month and has moved laterally since. It tried to continue the breakout last week but in the ensuing market selling this week it has pulled back to the 10 day MVA (28.80). It held there Wednesday, showing a tight doji on low, below average volume. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. Looking for the stock to continue the break higher.
Volume: 1.535M Avg Volume: 2.605M
BUY POINT: $30.75 Volume=3.7M Target=$36.95 Stop=$28.61
POSITION: AUK FF - June $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/askj.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
BEBE (Bebe Stores--$30.32; +0.28; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bebe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to its nice 5.5 month base showing solid 6 to 3 accumulation. The market has sold but it has held its own, minding its own business as it completes its base. That is what you want to see. Now we just continue to wait for the breakout.
Volume: 62.739K Avg Volume: 129.045K
BUY POINT: $31.62 Volume=200K Target=$36.35 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bebe.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
GTI (Graftech Intl.--$14.01; +0.01; optionable): Graphite & carbon-base products for energy industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gti.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Continues to hold tough in its 10 week base showing excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. It tried the breakout last week on strong trade but failed. It settled down a bit, and volume has jumped back above average Wednesday as it held the 10 day. Looks ready to make the move at any time.
Volume: 1.537M Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: $14.65 Volume=1.8M Target=$17.62 Stop=$13.62
POSITION: GTI FC - June $15c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gti.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
LTD (The Limited--$19.54; -0.15; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Gapped higher Tuesday on its raised guidance but sold back most of the session. Continued the pullback Wednesday, but it tapped toward the 10 day MVA (19.38) and held the line. Expected this pullback, and now we expect it to continue the move higher but want to see it clear the buy point on solid trade.
Volume: 3.828M Avg Volume: 2.629M
BUY POINT: $19.68 Volume=3.9M Target=$23.62 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: LTD HD - Aug. $20c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ltd.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
MXT (Metris--$6.77; +0.03; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still a very nice handle being formed on very low, below average volume. That is exactly what you want to see when a stock completes this type of pattern. A solid 10 month base showing strong 11 to 5 accumulation. Money flow is excellent. Just a matter of letting it make the breakout move on strong trade.
Volume: 699.2K Avg Volume: 1.124M
BUY POINT: $7.02 Volume=1.7M Target=$8.45 Stop=$6.48
POSITION: MXT GU - July $7.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mxt.html
Play Date: 03/09/2004
SLTC (Selectica--$5.02; 0; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sltc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume is starting to move higher as the stock continues to work in the 22 week base that has formed over the 50 day MVA (4.81). It has been a solid base, forming over the 50 day and sporting outstanding 6 to 0 accumulation. Solid across the board and just looking for the breakout.
Volume: 139.34K Avg Volume: 158.227K
BUY POINT: $5.37 Volume=242K Target=$6.48 Stop=$4.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sltc.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
STSI (Star Scientific--$3.73; -0.18; no options): Specialty retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume continues above average as STSI tries to start the move out of the handle to its 9 month base sporting outstanding 12 to 3 accumulation. Money flow is moving higher even as price pulls back in the handle. Now we want to see that volume converted into a breakout.
Volume: 306.013K Avg Volume: 183.136K
BUY POINT: $4.42 Volume=285K Target=$5.48 Stop=$4.11
POSITION: - Stocks (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stsi.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
TLCV (TLC Vision--$10.80; +0.12; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlcv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still a very nice low volume breakout test underway, holding over the 18 day MVA (10.55). Money flow continues to move up as the stock moves slightly lower, and relative strength is ready to breakout. A strong stock an dnow just needs volume to continue the breakout.
Volume: 445.493K Avg Volume: 829.363K
BUY POINT: $11.08 Volume=1.2M Target=$13.12 Stop=$10.32
POSITION: TKU GB - July $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tlcv.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
WAT (Waters Corp.--$39.1; +0.44; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wat.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still holding up very well in its big 27 month base, the last 8 weeks forming the handle over the 50 day MVA (37.10). Money flow is still moving higher as the stock works laterally in the handle. Relative strength is breaking out ahead of the price, a very bullish indication for the stock to move higher. Just waiting for a high volume breakout.
Volume: 560.6K Avg Volume: 673.727K
BUY POINT: $39.45 Volume=850K Target=$45.58 Stop=$37.75
POSITION: WAT HH - Aug. $40c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wat.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
WIND (Wind River Systems--$10.03; +0.06; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wind.html
STATUS: Breakout test. WIND is still holding the 18 day MVA (10.06), holding the breakout as well. Volume has been mostly lower in the pullback the past two weeks as the market sold. Strong money flow is still out in front of the stock. Just being patient and looking for a high volume breakaway move to the upside.
Volume: 554.002K Avg Volume: 650.636K
BUY POINT: $10.72 Volume=850K Target=$12.88 Stop=$9.97
POSITION: QWV HB - Aug. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wind.html
Play Date: 03/08/2004
WSTM (Workstream--$2.60; 0.00; no options): Staffing & outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wstm.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Volume has moved back up to average the past two sessions, and money flow is still rising ahead of price as WSTM readies for the breakout from its 10 week base. Relative strength is ready to breakout as well, a sign of a solid stock. Just waiting for that breakout.
Volume: 215.46K Avg Volume: 195.909K
BUY POINT: $2.72 Volume=234K Target=$3.55 Stop=$2.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wstm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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