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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Tuesday night play results:
FORR: Still very nice in the handle to its solid base.
SWK: Tried to make the breakout but ran out of gas. Still solid in the pattern.
TEK: Showing a doji below the 10 day MVA, still ready to fall.
New plays for Thursday:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/24/2004
MDRX (Allscripts Healthcare Sol.--$9.56; +0.35; no options): Clinical software and IT solutions for physicians
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdrx.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. MDRX is moving laterally in a tight range between 9 and 10, holding the 18 day MVA (9.12) as it works laterally. This move follows a nice breakout and run from January to the start of this month. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the 3 week lateral move (2 up price weeks on rising volume versus 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is solid and relative strength is ready for a breakout, an indication of the stock's strength in the market. Volume surged Wednesday as the stock tested the top of the range at 10 and fell back. Volume has been running higher as it crouches for the breakout. Looks ready.
Volume: 1.153M Avg Volume: 365.818K
BUY POINT: $10.12 Volume=600K Target=$12.15 Stop=$9.41
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mdrx.html
Play Date: 03/24/2004
NSM (National Semiconductor--$40.36; +1.29; optionable): Semiconductors (analog)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
STATUS: Cup. NSM is working through a 15 week base that has formed more or less over the 50 day MVA (39.49), a sign that big money has been stepping in at that level and supporting it even as the market sold. It is showing solid 8 to 4 accumulation in the pattern and volume has started to swell the past two weeks as it firms for the move up the right side of the pattern. One of the better big chip patterns, and on a NASDAQ rally we expect it will rally as well.
Volume: 5.602M Avg Volume: 3.629M
BUY POINT: $41.06 Volume=6M Target=$47.25 Stop=$39.78
POSITION: NSM HH - Aug. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nsm.html
Play Date: 03/24/2004
WOR (Worthington Industries--$18.52; +0.14; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wor.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume has surged the past week as WOR moves toward the breakout from its 12 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA (17.21), a sign of solid support for the stock as it takes a breather and forms this base. Accumulation is strong at 4 to 1, showing money moved into the stock during the basing period. Money flow is rallying as well and relative strength is making the breakout as well. Wednesday the stock gapped to the 18 day MVA (17.77) but then rallied to post a gain on strong above average volume. The current base is part of a large 18 month double bottom with handle; the current base is the handle. Looking for the breakout on continued strong trade to move into this stock that looks ready to reel off another $4 on a breakout.
Volume: 715.7K Avg Volume: 369.636K
BUY POINT: $18.68 Volume=554K Target=$22.42 Stop=$17.72
POSITION: WOR FW - June $17.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wor.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AVID, COH, DIS, EBAY; GTRC, HD; KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, TJX; UTSI, XMSR
COH: Still a nice 50 day MVA test, starting the move higher Wednesday but struggling at the 10 day MVA.
EBAY: A quick drop below the 50 day MVA messed up the flat base. Trying to hold some support at 65 for a move back over the 50 day.
TGT: Doji at the 18 day MVA. It used this level earlier in the month as support for its last move.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
RCRC: Trying to clear 27 to move to an all-time high as it tries to move out of somewhat of a 9 week flat base.
Downside:
SSTI: Gapped lower Monday and is trying to rally back to the 10 day MVA on low trade. If it makes it to that level and stalls, could turn into a downside play.
DGIN: Working down the 10 day MVA.
SWFT: Massive tank mid-month, and now making the rebound toward the 10 day. It has filled the gap, so it is ready to fall again. Not bad.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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