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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: BEBE; CBR; MXT; NVDA; ODP; RHAT; ROV SKIL; TASR; PCR
Best Plays:
1) MPS: Solid volume move underway
2) TELK: This could finally be the move.
3) CBR: Making the next move on volume.
4) GTI: Volume is higher as it gaps out of the pattern.
5) STG: Looking very nice.
6) WAT: Volume is jumping as it starts the breakout.
7) WSTM: Straining to make the move.
NEW PLAYS:
Sticking with the stocks in solid patterns and looking for breakouts as they are the leaders and could really move when the rest of the market is ready.
Upside:
Play Date: 03/29/2004
FSH (Fisher Scientific--$53.56; -0.12; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsh.html
STATUS: Flat base. FSH is a leading stock as far as sales and earnings growth. It broke out of a 4.5 month flat base in mid-January and put in a 15 point run. It is working that move off, working laterally over the 18 day MVA (53.26). Volume surged two weeks back as FSH came off of support near 52.50. It has eased back to the short term MVA, showing low, below average volume as it does. Excellent money flow and positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the base. Looking for volume to surge back above average as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 917.8K Avg Volume: 1.033M
BUY POINT: $54.55 Volume=1.6M Target=$62.75 Stop=$52.96
POSITION: FSH FK - June $55c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fsh.html
Play Date: 03/29/2004
MPS (Modis Professional Svc.--$11.14; +0.49; no options): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mps.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle breakout. Volume is up as MPS makes the move out of its 6 month base sporting strong 7 to 3 accumulation. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is ready for the breakout. The jobs report is out Friday, and while we do not anticipate a huge move in jobs to the level of the whisper number, the staffing stocks are setting up nice bases and moving higher. We will see if we can get MPS to make us some money on this run.
Volume: 711.7K Avg Volume: 472.727K
BUY POINT: $11.28 Volume=550K Target=$13.55 Stop=$10.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mps.html
Play Date: 03/29/2004
TELK (Telik--$27.31; +1.16; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/telk.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. TELK is bouncing up the 50 day MVA (25.13) as it traded below a constant top at 28 the past 6 weeks. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern as it finally looks ready to make the breakout move. Volume was up to average on Monday, and we are looking for it to surge as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 637.522K Avg Volume: 586.727K
BUY POINT: $28.78 Volume=880K Target=$33.12 Stop=$26.77
POSITION: ZUL GE - July $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/telk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/29/2004
PPP (Pogo Producing--$44; +0.42; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppp.html
STATUS: Put. PPP crashed the 200 day MVA (44.49) last Wednesday on strong trade, and it has rebounded back up to test that important level on lower volume. It tapped the 200 day on the Monday high and fell back as volume was even lower. Looks ripe to roll over again.
Volume: 230.2K Avg Volume: 455.545K
BUY POINT: $43.75 Volume=500K Target=$41 Stop=$44.68
POSITION: PPP QZ - May $45p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/17/2004
CBR (Ciber, Inc.--$11.30; +0.72; optionable): IT software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. We are already in this one, but it is making the next break higher on very solid trade. CBR is extending the breakout from its 7 month base, and we are looking to move in to a few more positions on a continued move.
Volume: 880K Avg Volume: 457.5K
BUY POINT: New: $11.45 (orig. $10.65) Volume=750K Target=$12.78 Stop=$10.21
POSITION: CBR HB - Aug. $10c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbr.html
Play Date: 03/24/2004
CRXL (Crucell--$8.14; +0.04; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crxl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle on very low volume, trying to shake out the last sellers in the 11 week base. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation and strong money flow are setting up the next move. Just being patient and waiting for the next move.
Volume: 80.508K Avg Volume: 249.045K
BUY POINT: $8.35 Volume=350K Target=$10.06 Stop=$7.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crxl.html
Play Date: 03/17/2004
CYTC (Cytyc--$20.75; +0.66; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume is moving back up to average as CYC picks up speed off of the 18 day MVA (19.71). CYTC exploded higher to start the month, breaking out of a nice cup with handle base. It rallied to over 22 and has now come back to test the 18 day in an orderly, lower volume pullback. Money flow continues to run hard ahead of price. Looks good and a buy on continued strong volume.
Volume: 1.855M Avg Volume: 1.637M
BUY POINT: New: $20.88 (orig. $20.48) Volume=2.2M Target=$24.65 Stop=$19.34
POSITION: YQK HD - Aug. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cytc.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
GTI (Graftech Intl.--$14.82; +0.57; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gti.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. GTI gapped out of the 3 month base Monday on some solid volume. It tested back to 14.50, but then managed to rally late to regain most of the early run. We could have entered but decided to wait and see if it makes another test back to 14.50 again. If it does and starts back up on continued strong trade it is time to move in. Solid 4 to 1 accumulation in the base and surging money flow. Relative strength is breaking out as well.
Volume: 1.985M Avg Volume: 1.105M
BUY POINT: New: Test 14.50, then 14.78 on the way back up (orig. $14.65) Volume=1.8M Target=$17.62 Stop=$13.62
POSITION: GTI FC - June $15c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gti.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
STG (Stonepath Group--$3.85; +0.15; no options): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume is starting to jump as STG starts up off of the 50 day MVA test. STG exploded out of a very nice 30 week double bottom with handle base. It surged to 4.25 and has tested on lower volume. It made a high volume test of the 50 day MVA (3.47) and rebounded sharply. Surging money flow is leading higher. Looks ready to go. We are looking at it and feel it is worth an earlier entry point of the volume remains solid.
Volume: 487.9K Avg Volume: 399.636K
BUY POINT: New: 3.94 (orig. $4.04) Volume=563K Target=$5 Stop=$3.76
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stg.html
Play Date: 03/11/2004
TLCV (TLC Vision--$11.75; +0.35; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlcv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another volume move Monday on top of Friday's reversal at 12. It held some good gain but also traded back off the high (12.05) once more. Money flow continues to run higher ahead of price and relative strength is breaking out. Still solid in its 4 week lateral move over the 18 day MVA (10.84).
Volume: 954.766K Avg Volume: 854.363K
BUY POINT: New: $11.84 (orig. $11.08) Volume=1.2M Target=$13.12 Stop=$10.32
POSITION: TKU GB - July $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tlcv.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
WAT (Waters Corp.--$39.5; +0.35; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wat.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume is kicking up nicely as WAT tries to make the breakout move from its 9 week base over the 50 day MVA (37.35). Money flow is excellent, running higher ahead of the price. Relative strength is ready to break out. We want to see more of a breakaway move on continued strong volume. This pattern is actually part of a larger 27 month cup with handle base. Looking solid.
Volume: 989.9K Avg Volume: 689.772K
BUY POINT: $39.45 Volume=850K Target=$45.58 Stop=$37.75
POSITION: WAT HH - Aug. $40c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wat.html
Play Date: 03/08/2004
WSTM (Workstream--$2.64; +0.01; no options): Staffing & outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wstm.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Volume continues to run higher as WSTM continues to hold in a tight range, banging its head against 2.70ish on the highs. Outstanding money flow is running hard ahead of price and solid relative strength. It looks to be crouching, ready to make the blast higher. We are ready, now it has to make the move. This is another staffing and outsourcing company that is setting up very well for a move, but again, we need to see it deliver.
Volume: 195.21K Avg Volume: 201.045K
BUY POINT: $2.72 Volume=234K Target=$3.55 Stop=$2.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wstm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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