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stock strategy, stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
New plays contained in part 3
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: Under new tax rules, is it still profitable to buy a dividend in assets held in an IRA?
A: It is still profitable, but the relative adantage over buying in a non-tax exempt account has diminished. The new tax rules create an advantage, but then take away one of the best advantages of capturing dividends in a taxable account.
The tax rate has been reduced from the taxpayer's bracket to 15%. Depending upon your tax bracket that makes buying dividend paying stocks in a taxable account more advantageous than before. When a dividend is 4% and you have to pay 35% tax on it, and also factor in the transaction costs of buying and selling the stock in order to capture the dividend, the resulting gain is not worht the effort.. In short, you can make better money elsewhere with the same or less effort.
By lowering the tax rate to 15% that made dividend capturing much more advantageous. Or did it? As part of the new tax rules, in order to get the special 15% rate, you have to hold the stock for 61 days. That means if you want to capture dividends as a primary income source, you can only do it every 61 days if you have just one block of money to work with, or you have to throw a whole lot of money at it if you want to capture more dividends and actually use it as a strategy to make any real money at it.
What you want to do when dividend capturing is make a play a week, buying the stock at the close the day before the record date and selling it the next session so you are not subject to ups and downs in the stock that can wipe out your dividend gain. You can then use the float to move into another dividend play using the same block of money. You can do this over and over with the same block of money and roll the dividends in consistently and thus make some decent money. With the new tax rule, however, you cannot use the same block of money over and over but have to hold the stock for 61 days. Effectively that limits you to at best 6 captures per year using the same block of money IF you want the 15% tax rate. To make it worthwhile in a taxable account, however, you need the 15% rate. So the taxk law gave but it also took away WITH THE INTENT to keep people from doing this. That is why it was written the way it was.
You can still capture dividends in a tax free account just as we did in the old days because you are not worried about the 15% versus 28%, 35%, etc. tax rates. Thus for serious dividend capturers, the tax law offered no change.
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 96.43 +1.99 80.93 92.95 212K 500K 92.72
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied for a nice move on low volume.
C 03/29 Flat 51.94 +0.62 51.93 59.72 14M 17M 50.22
Entered today. Great move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume.
CACH 03/27 FlyPlat 33.36 +0.8 31.58 37.95 105K 165K 29.48
Buy Not Issued. Closed well off of its high (34.89) on low volume.
Looks like a test of 32 before it continues the move.
CALM 01/29 Cup hdl 37.77 +1.17 36.62 43.75 886K 650K 38.33
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied holding below the 18 day MVA on much lower, but still above average volume. Looking for a bounce off the 50 day MVA.
CERN 03/25 Test 50 45.78 -0.02 45.12 51.88 346K 986K 43.12
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move showing a doji on low volume.
CHT 01/22 Cup hdl 17.55 +0.03 15.75 18.92 118K 1.1M 17.06
Current. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on low volume.
CNMD 03/17 Flat 29.1 +0.77 29.16 35 297K 230K 28.08
Entered today. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
CPTV 03/29 A Wedge 14.35 -0.05 14.55 17.48 93K 175K 13.53
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 14.94 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on below average volume. Making a lateral move.
CYTC 03/17 Test 18 21.88 +1.13 21.84 26.22 4.1M 2.2M 20.31
Entered today. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
DKS 03/25 Test 50 57.77 +0.27 56.88 65.55 243K 450K 54.44
Buy Not Issued. Continue with low volume ascent up the 10 day MVA. Have not entered the play because volume is not there.
DNA 01/03 Test BO 105.76 +0.81 95.44 102 1.5M 3M 105.12
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume after testing the 50 day MVA.
DRAX 03/08 DB hdl 5.46 -0.08 5.5 6.62 333K 500K 5.09
Current. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Needs to break through resistance at 5.80.
DWCH 03/16 Test BO 11.42 +1.67 10.92 13.15 300K 175K 10.16
Entered today. Bounced off the 18 day MVA for an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
EEFT 03/29 Cup hdl 18.93 -0.09 20.38 24.68 169K 225K 18.95
Buy Not Hit. Pull back showing a doji on average volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
FINL 03/16 Test 50 37.34 -0.21 35.55 41 335K 661K 34.94
Current. Pull back on much lower, below average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
FMTI 01/17 Cup hdl 7.08 -0.12 3.48 4.35 714K 228K 7.28
Current. Pull back testing support at 7 and rallied on slightly higher, but still below average volume. Testing support.
FSH 03/29 Flat 55.06 +1.5 54.52 62.75 2.5M 1.6M 53.22
Entered today. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move on strong volume surge.
GGAL 03/22 A Wedge 8.25 0 9.15 11 253K 401K 8.51
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji as stock begins to make a lateral move below the 18 day MVA.
GILTF 03/16 Flat 8.61 +0.26 8.64 10.38 183K 500K 8.72
Current. Tapped 7.42 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
HMP 03/08 A Wedge 2.16 +0.16 2.16 2.84 106K 150K 2.08
Current. Gapped up at the open and rallied for a nice gain on strong, but average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 2.18.
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 55.98 +0.63 50.22 58 160K 500K 53.54
Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Came off the day's high of 56.73.
INTV 03/08 Flat 16.12 -0.02 13.91 16.85 409K 500K 14.76
Current. Tapped 15.65 at the low and rallied showing a doji on much lower, below average volume as stock makes a lateral move.
KFX 02/24 Cup hdl 10.41 0 8.46 10.15 628K 508K 9.32
Current. Showing a doji on much lower, but still above average volume. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
KFY 03/18 Cup hdl 16 +0.1 14.46 17.35 257K 300K 14.38
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on lower, but average volume.
LIFC 02/28 Cup hdl 8.06 +0.63 7.75 9.28 518K 180K 7.28
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied for an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
LTD 03/22 Test 50 19.8 +0.05 19.68 23.62 2.1M 3.9M 18.88
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move showing a tight doji on low volume.
MAMA 03/16 Test BO 10.7 -0.08 10.04 13.12 1.8M 6M 10.21
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied holding above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Making a lateral move.
MDRX 03/24 FlyPlat 9.93 +0.15 10.12 12.15 486K 600K 9.41
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on average volume.
MER 03/04 A Wedge 59.44 +0.25 63.79 72 3.5M 6.5M 58.95
Current. Making a lateral move under the 10 day MVA on low volume.
MER 02/14 A Wedge 59.44 +0.25 61.96 70.55 3.5M 6.5M 60.32
Current.
MTIC 03/27 Dbl btm 3.73 +0.36 3.39 4.28 982K 251K 3.15
Current. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
MXT 03/22 Cup hdl 7.96 +0.07 7.77 9.32 2M 1.7M 7.23
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume.
NMGC 03/03 Flat 4.74 +0.11 5.1 6.18 228K 488K 4.88
Current. Nice move up holding above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
NSM 03/24 Cup 44.43 +0.58 41.98 48.25 4.3M 6M 40.78
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
NSTK 03/20 Test 18 12.81 +0.48 13.42 16.12 74K 135K 12.48
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
NUS 03/02 Test 50 19.86 -0.06 21.08 25.15 265K 455K 19.48
Current. Pull back holding just above the 10 day MVA on higher, but below average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
NVDA 03/24 Test 50 26.16 +0.76 23.94 28.75 6M 6M 23.88
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
NVTL 03/27 Flat 20.69 +0.18 21.95 26.22 997K 1.1M 19.97
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
OMCL 02/03 A Wedge 20.12 -0.82 20.68 24.72 582K 450K 19.92
Current. Pull back testing the simple 50 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May test back to the 50 day MVA.
OMNI 03/13 Cup hdl 7.45 -0.53 7.57 8.94 609K 784K 7.38
Current. Gapped down and continued to move down holding the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Holding above support at 7.30.
ONCY 03/03 Cup hdl 6.13 -0.05 4.55 5.48 702K 156K 5.48
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on much lower, but still strong volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
ONNN 12/16 Test BO 8.43 +0.26 7.42 8.88 2.7M 3.4M 7.67
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on average volume. Needs to clear resistance at 9.
PCR 03/27 Test 18 16.5 -1.45 17.48 20.55 378K 150K 16.26
Current. Thudded down holding the 18 day MVA on very strong volume. May test back to support at 16.
PDQ 03/23 Test BO 11.52 -0.27 11.65 13.98 280K 350K 11.22
Current. Pull back on lower, but average volume. Still in good shape.
PKZ 03/01 A Wedge 29.04 +1.17 27.51 31.72 814K 553K 28.04
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA and rallied for a nice move on stronger above average volume.
PLCE 03/06 Cup hdl 30.63 +0.27 31.98 38 613K 562K 30.12
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
PTNR 03/11 Dbl btm 7.83 -0.15 8.48 10.15 47K 200K 8.02
Current. Pull back tapping 7.75 at the low and rallied holding just under the 50 day MVA on low volume. Holding just above support at 7.80.
RATE 03/13 Cup hdl 18.66 +1.44 19.15 23 139K 200K 17.08
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for an explosive move on much stronger, but still below average volume.
RHAT 03/24 Flat 23.93 +0.23 20.66 24.85 7.6M 7.3M 21.25
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
RITA 03/20 Test BO 5.6 +0.03 5.68 7.05 58K 90K 5.28
Current. Gapped down to open on the 18 day MVA and rallied holding just over the 10 day MVA on low volume. Beginning to make a lateral move. Moving up after testing the break out.
RMKR 03/27 Test BO 2.67 -0.18 2.52 3.15 425K 167K 2.34
Current. Pull back tapping 2.40 at the low and rallied on much lower, but still strong volume. Testing the break out.
SBUX 03/22 Test 50 38.03 +0.36 37.52 45 3M 4.5M 36.25
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 37.28 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume
SGMS 03/01 Dbl btm 19.04 +0.36 18.85 22.62 322K 1.1M 17.68
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
SPAB 02/10 A Wedge 3.91 -0.04 3.49 4.35 74K 451K 3.74
Current. Gapped down at the open and went down to tap 3.36 at the intraday low and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Testing the break out.
STG 03/13 Test 18 3.88 +0.03 4.04 5 273K 563K 3.76
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
SUMT 03/24 Cup hdl 7.7 0 6.75 8.12 57K 100K 7.32
Current. beginning to make a lateral move on much stronger volume surge.
SWK 03/23 Flat 43.53 0 40.56 46.65 623K 800K 40.24
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on much lower, but still above average volume.
TASR 03/25 Cup hdl 80.82 +6.53 66.29 76.25 10M 6.8M 69
Target Hit. Took half of the option gain and let the rest run.
TEO 02/23 Test 50 10.86 +0.11 10.61 12.72 69K 520K 10.48
Current. Tapped 10.60 at the low and rallied as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
TKO 03/17 Test 18 5.24 -0.2 4.88 5.85 446K 500K 4.78
Current. Pull back tapping 5.10 at the low and rallied on average volume. Needs to clear resistance at 5.48
TLCV 03/11 Test 18 11.62 -0.13 11.08 13.12 439K 1.2M 10.32
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on low volume. Continue with low volume uptrend pattern. Have not entered the play because volume is not there.
TOM 02/28 Cup hdl 17.02 +0.02 16.84 20.12 454K 850K 16.22
Current. Making a lateral move showing a doji on low volume
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 39.05 +0.06 23.42 27.62 506K 603K 42.65
Current. Showing a doji on slightly higher, above average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move under the 10 day MVA.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 39.05 +0.06 21.88 26 506K 603K 42.65
Current.
TTP 03/18 Test 18 5 -0.03 5.46 6.72 218K 300K 4.98
Current. Making a lateral move showing a tight doji on low volume.
ULTI 02/09 Cup hdl 13.25 -0.14 11.38 13.62 134K 120K 13.28
Current. Tapped 13.50 at the high (10 day MVA), but gave it back showing a doji under
VAR 03/03 Flat 84.1 -0.57 88.11 100 353K 750K 85.62
Current. Pull back testing the simple 50 day MVA and rallied showing a doji under the 10 day MVA on low volume.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 84.1 -0.57 64.5 74.25 353K 1.1M 85.62
Current.
VION 03/25 Test BO 3.9 +0.01 3.86 4.68 589K 1.4M 3.59
Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on low volume
VOXX 02/21 A Wedge 19.76 +0.93 16.29 19.62 178K 160K 17.92
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
VRNT 03/15 Cup hdl 30 -0.14 27.88 33.45 127K 200K 27.72
Current. Making a lateral move on higher, but still below average volume.
WEBX 02/25 Test 18 30.04 +1.26 27.27 31.35 1.3M 1M 27.38
Current. Great move up the 10 day MVA on higher, but average volume.
WIND 03/13 Test BO 11.01 +0.31 10.72 12.88 971K 850K 9.97
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on higher, above average volume. Peaked and in the last hour dropped well off high. Will see if can pick up off 11
WMAR 03/23 Test 50 31.31 +0.32 30.45 35 227K 295K 30.12
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Volume not there to enter the play.
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 34.9 -0.29 31.24 37 221K 296K 35.12
Current. Pull back showing a tight doji on low volume. Testing the break out. May test back to the 18 day MVA.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AZO 03/10 Put 85.87 +0.42 84 81.28 849K 1.1M 83.66
Current. Moved up holding the 200 day MVA on average volume. Should turn over from here.
FITB 03/20 Put 55.21 -0.19 55.62 53.12 2.1M 2M 56.22
Buy Not Issued. Moving down the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Needs low volume rally before we can enter the play.
MOLX 03/20 Put 30.52 +0.2 29.48 27.38 410K 750K 30.38
Current. Low volume rallied holding below the 200 day MVA Still below resistance.
PPP 03/29 Put 44.88 +0.88 43.75 41 206K 500K 44.68
Buy Not Hit. Low volume rally holding the 50 day MVA. Needs to turn over from here or will look to drop.
TECD 03/22 Put 41.08 -0.05 38.45 36.05 415K 550K 39.25
Current. Making a lateral move showing a doji above the simple 50 day MVA on slightly higher, but still below average volume.
UTX 03/16 Put 85.75 -0.1 87.84 84 2.7M 3M 86.72
Making lateral move under 10 day MVA showing a doji on stronger, but only average volume.
End part 2 of 3
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stock strategy
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