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trade stock, stock strategy
Begin part 2 of 3
New plays and full write-ups contained in part 3.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: Under new tax rules, is it still profitable to buy a dividend in assets held in an IRA?
A: It is still profitable, but the relative adantage over buying in a non-tax exempt account has diminished. The new tax rules create an advantage, but then take away one of the best advantages of capturing dividends in a taxable account.
The tax rate has been reduced from the taxpayer's bracket to 15%. Depending upon your tax bracket that makes buying dividend paying stocks in a taxable account more advantageous than before. When a dividend is 4% and you have to pay 35% tax on it, and also factor in the transaction costs of buying and selling the stock in order to capture the dividend, the resulting gain is not worht the effort.. In short, you can make better money elsewhere with the same or less effort.
By lowering the tax rate to 15% that made dividend capturing much more advantageous. Or did it? As part of the new tax rules, in order to get the special 15% rate, you have to hold the stock for 61 days. That means if you want to capture dividends as a primary income source, you can only do it every 61 days if you have just one block of money to work with, or you have to throw a whole lot of money at it if you want to capture more dividends and actually use it as a strategy to make any real money at it.
What you want to do when dividend capturing is make a play a week, buying the stock at the close the day before the record date and selling it the next session so you are not subject to ups and downs in the stock that can wipe out your dividend gain. You can then use the float to move into another dividend play using the same block of money. You can do this over and over with the same block of money and roll the dividends in consistently and thus make some decent money. With the new tax rule, however, you cannot use the same block of money over and over but have to hold the stock for 61 days. Effectively that limits you to at best 6 captures per year using the same block of money IF you want the 15% tax rate. To make it worthwhile in a taxable account, however, you need the 15% rate. So the taxk law gave but it also took away WITH THE INTENT to keep people from doing this. That is why it was written the way it was.
You can still capture dividends in a tax free account just as we did in the old days because you are not worried about the 15% versus 28%, 35%, etc. tax rates. Thus for serious dividend capturers, the tax law offered no change.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACV 03/23 FlyPlat 43.67 -0.04 45.62 52 653K 700K 44.12
Buy Not Hit. Pull back tapping 43.30 at the low and rallied as stock begins to make a lateral move below the 18 day MVA on average volume.
APOL 01/24 Test 18 86.19 +0.74 73.25 82 1.2M 3M 82.25
APOL 12/01 DB hdl 86.19 +0.74 70.72 82 1.2M 2.9M 82.25
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
APOL 11/22 DB hdl 86.19 +0.74 66.54 82 1.2M 2.9M 82.25
Current.
APPB 03/13 Test BO 41.74 +0.59 40.55 46.78 339K 739K 39.35
Buy Not Issued. continue to make a low volume ascent up the 10 day MVA. Needs to pull back before we could enter the play.
APPX 03/27 A Wedge 45.29 +2.35 44.72 50.25 1.3M 1.4M 41.59
Entered today. Great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
ARO 03/11 Test 50 37 +0.1 34.97 39.52 773K 989K 34.68
Current. Tapped 37.80 at the high, but gave most of it back on lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 96.43 +1.99 80.93 92.95 212K 500K 92.72
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied for a nice move on low volume.
CACH 03/27 FlyPlat 33.36 +0.8 31.58 37.95 105K 165K 29.48
Buy Not Issued. Closed well off of its high (34.89) on low volume.
Looks like a test of 32 before it continues the move.
CALM 03/27 A Wedge 37.77 +1.17 41.38 48.25 886K 650K 38.45
Buy Not Issued.
CALM 01/29 Cup hdl 37.77 +1.17 36.62 43.75 886K 650K 38.33
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied holding below the 18 day MVA on much lower, but still above average volume. Looking for a bounce off the 50 day MVA.
CEC 02/21 Cup hdl 36.53 +1.17 34.96 38.23 292K 272K 36.68
Current. Explosive move up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
CFC 03/23 Test 18 94.32 +1.49 92.25 97.25 1.9M 2.8M 92
Continue low volume ascent up the 10 day MVA.
CHS 02/24 Test BO 46.09 +0.79 46.22 53.15 892K 1.1M 44.04
Tapped 42.85 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Needs to clear resistance at 47.35.
CHT 01/22 Cup hdl 17.55 +0.03 15.75 18.92 118K 1.1M 17.06
Current. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on low volume.
CLZR 03/13 Test BO 13.94 +0.66 14.15 16.98 225K 308K 12.88
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on low volume as stock moves up the 10 day MVA. Needs to break through resistance at 14.20.
CMRG 03/18 Cup hdl 10.56 +0.41 9.92 11.94 927K 585K 9.23
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied for a great move on strong above average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
CNMD 03/23 Test 50 29.1 +0.77 29.16 34.88 297K 240K 28.06
Entered today. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
COH 02/28 DB hdl 42.1 0 41.66 47.88 1M 2.5M 40.96
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied as stock makes a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on low volume.
DGX 03/20 Cup hdl 83.66 +0.12 85.97 100 434K 973K 81.72
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 82.75 at the low and rallied showing a doji on low volume as stock begins to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
DKS 03/25 Test 50 57.77 +0.27 56.88 65.55 243K 450K 54.44
Buy Not Issued. Continue with low volume ascent up the 10 day MVA. Have not entered the play because volume is not there.
DNA 03/13 Test BO 105.76 +0.81 106.92 118 1.5M 4M 104.38
Buy Not Hit.
DNA 01/03 Test BO 105.76 +0.81 95.44 102 1.5M 3M 105.12
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume after testing the 50 day MVA.
DWCH 03/16 Test BO 11.42 +1.67 10.92 13.15 300K 175K 10.16
Entered today. Bounced off the 18 day MVA for an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
EAT 03/09 Test BO 38 +0.08 39.06 46.88 546K 950K 37.88
Buy Not Hit. Showing a doji on below average volume. Making a lateral move.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 69.86 +1.45 71.78 82.25 6.3M 10M 66.55
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a nice gain on slightly below average volume.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 69.86 +1.45 53.78 60 6.3M 9M 66.55
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 69.86 +1.45 40.04 46 6.3M 8M 66.55
Current.
EEFT 03/29 Cup hdl 18.93 -0.09 20.38 24.68 169K 225K 18.95
Buy Not Hit. Pull back showing a doji on average volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
ENCY 03/08 Cup 10.04 +0.42 10.78 12.95 493K 917K 9.94
Buy Not Hit. tapped 9.56 at the low and rallied for a nice move on average volume.
ESRX 03/24 Cup hdl 74.17 +0.3 75.24 86 954K 1.4M 71.95
Buy Not Hit. Continue with lateral move along the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
EVCI 02/18 Test BO 12.05 -1.04 8.68 10.39 1.4M 228K 11.58
Current. Gapped down at the open and continued to move down tapping 11.26 at the intraday low and made a fierce rally holding above the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge. Testing the break out.
FINL 03/16 Test 50 37.34 -0.21 35.55 41 335K 661K 34.94
Current. Pull back on much lower, below average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
GTK 03/18 Test 50 59.7 +0.35 58.55 66.78 462K 904K 57.68
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied up the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Needs to clear resistance at 62.07.
HOV 03/11 Cup hdl 43.76 +0.54 44.37 49.50 1.1M 1.4M 42.61
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
HUG 03/02 Flat 52.36 +0.36 50.62 58.25 175K 314K 50.62
Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
IDSA 03/16 Test BO 35.63 -1.47 30.38 36 1.9M 2M 34.88
Current. More volatile session. Pull back showing a doji on lower, but still above average volume.
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 55.98 +0.63 50.22 58 160K 500K 53.54
Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Came off the day's high of 56.73.
IGT 03/24 BO 44.74 -0.21 44.25 66.78 3M 3M 42.52
Current. Big gap up and reversed tapping support at 44 intraday and rallied as stock makes a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 44.74 -0.21 29.05 34.55 3M 4.7M 41.68
Current.
INTV 03/08 Flat 16.12 -0.02 13.91 16.85 409K 500K 14.76
Current. Tapped 15.65 at the low and rallied showing a doji on much lower, below average volume as stock makes a lateral move.
JOSB 03/13 Test BO 36.28 +0.39 39.48 45.45 348K 500K 36.72
Buy Not Issued. Moving up showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on average volume. Needs to continue to rally or will look to drop.
KFY 03/18 Cup hdl 16 +0.1 14.46 17.35 257K 300K 14.38
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on lower, but average volume.
LTD 03/22 Test 50 19.8 +0.05 19.68 23.62 2.1M 3.9M 18.88
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move showing a tight doji on low volume.
LXK 12/30 Rv H&S 91.71 +1.11 83.65 94 648K 2M 86.55
Current. Continue with uptrend pattern.
MAMA 03/16 Test BO 10.7 -0.08 10.04 13.12 1.8M 6M 10.21
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied holding above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Making a lateral move.
MBG 11/18 Cup hdl 57.19 -0.27 44.3 53 847K 1.8M 54.62
Current. Tapped 56.63 at the low and rallied showing a doji on below average volume as stock makes a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
MBT 01/03 Cup 124.8 -1.15 88.39 99.95 349K 412K 117.88
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on much lower, but still above average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
MIK 02/21 Cup hdl 48 +0.02 48.44 55.72 182K 815K 46.22
Buy Not Issued. Begin to make a lateral move showing a tight doji on low volume.
MRVL 03/27 PreSplt 45.19 +2.06 42.88 46.25 4.5M 4M 44.76
Explosive move on stronger above average volume.
MTH 03/27 Test 50 74.76 +1.35 74.55 85.75 102K 224K 73.22
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
NUS 03/02 Test 50 19.86 -0.06 21.08 25.15 265K 455K 19.48
Current. Pull back holding just above the 10 day MVA on higher, but below average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
NVDA 03/24 Test 50 26.16 +0.76 23.94 28.75 6M 6M 23.88
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
OSI 02/07 Test 50 49.87 +0.74 48.68 51.96 410K 650K 47.72
Current. continue to move up the 10 day MVA on average volume. Made a 52 week high.
PDCO 03/09 Flat 68.6 +0.43 70.12 81 294K 759K 66.65
Buy Not Issued. Tested the simple 50 day MVA and rallied up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Needs to clear resistance at 69.80 on higher volume.
PDQ 03/23 Test BO 11.52 -0.27 11.65 13.98 280K 350K 11.22
Current. Pull back on lower, but average volume. Still in good shape.
PG 03/13 Test BO 105.98 +1.1 104.92 115 3.2M 4.2M 103.25
Buy Not Issued. Volume was a bit slack as it approached some potential resistance at 106. Wanted to see volume jump as it
made this move.
POOL 03/25 Cup hdl 36.58 +0.55 36.62 43 139K 227K 34.06
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 35.74 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on below average volume.
PSUN 03/06 Test 50 24.61 -0.21 25.04 30 1.2M 2.4M 24.15
Buy Not Hit. Volatile session with 24.02 at the low and 25 at the high showing a doji on slightly higher, but still below average volume. Still in good shape.
QCOM 02/25 Test BO 65.58 -0.03 63.03 72 7.3M 11M 63.12
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on low volume above the 10 day MVA.
RVI 03/20 Test BO 7.09 +0.08 7.12 8.98 261K 155K 6.72
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied as stock moved up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. Needs to clear resistance at 7.22.
SBUX 03/22 Test 50 38.03 +0.36 37.52 45 3M 4.5M 36.25
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 38.03 +0.36 30.35 36.75 3M 6M 37.32
Current. Tapped 37.28 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume
SBUX 07/01 Cup 38.03 +0.36 26.3 30.94 3M 6M 37.32
Current.
SLAB 01/31 Cup hdl 53.02 +0.44 51.12 58 798K 1.9M 54.22
Current. Tapped 51.82 at the low and rallied showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on low volume. Making a lateral move between the 10 and 18 day MVA on low volume.
SONC 01/10 Test BO 34.51 +0.93 35.04 43 167K 562K 33.72
Buy Not Issued. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
SPAB 02/10 A Wedge 3.91 -0.04 3.49 4.35 74K 451K 3.74
Current. Gapped down at the open and went down to tap 3.36 at the intraday low and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Testing the break out.
STJ 01/13 Cup hdl 72.1 -0.15 64.68 75 898K 2.2M 74.55
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Making a lateral move.
STN 03/11 Test BO 43.44 -0.36 42.49 49 247K 550K 40.88
Current. Pull back on low volume. Stock still in uptrend pattern.
SUMT 03/24 Cup hdl 7.7 0 6.75 8.12 57K 100K 7.32
Current. beginning to make a lateral move on much stronger volume surge.
SYMC 02/05 FlyPlat 47.26 +0.14 40.94 46.88 2.9M 6M 43.06
Current. Continue with uptrend pattern on low volume.
TASR 03/25 Cup hdl 80.82 +6.53 66.29 76.25 10M 6.8M 69
Target Hit. Took half of the option gain and let the rest run.
TASR 02/10 Test BO 80.82 +6.53 45.88 54.55 10M 1M 69
Current.
TOL 01/27 Cup hdl 45.58 +0.86 42.71 51 979K 1.2M 44.68
Current. Tapped 44.54 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
TSCO 01/24 Cup 39.05 +0.06 45.22 55 506K 719K 42.05
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 39.05 +0.06 28.06 31.44 506K 494K 42.65
Current. Showing a doji on slightly higher, above average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move under the 10 day MVA.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 39.05 +0.06 26.62 30 506K 500K 42.65
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 39.05 +0.06 23.42 27.62 506K 603K 42.65
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 39.05 +0.06 21.88 26 506K 603K 42.65
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 39.05 +0.06 19.3 22.19 506K 577K 42.65
Current.
TTP 03/18 Test 18 5 -0.03 5.46 6.72 218K 300K 4.98
Current. Making a lateral move showing a tight doji on low volume.
TTP 03/01 Test 50 5 -0.03 4.59 5.55 218K 342K 4.81
Current.
UHCO 03/20 Test BO 11.96 +0.03 12.25 14.72 285K 315K 11.39
Buy Not Issued. Jumped up on better trade to 12.43 but then gave it
all back. Still solid and just waiting for the move
to hold.
ULTI 02/09 Cup hdl 13.25 -0.14 11.38 13.62 134K 120K 13.28
Current. Tapped 13.50 at the high (10 day MVA), but gave it back showing a doji under the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Holding above support at 13.
UNFI 03/27 FlyPlat 49.67 +1.9 48.88 56.22 210K 260K 47.22
Solid start to the pre-split trade.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 87.6 +1.69 71.12 84 154K 315K 81.88
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 87.6 +1.69 68.95 82 154K 315K 81.88
Current.
URBN 03/29 Flat 48.29 +1.91 46.68 53.68 761K 725K 44.12
Buy Not Issued. We just watched it move steadily higher as it posted a solid day on solid volume period. Kept looking for the perfect entry point and as some times happens when you do that, it never materialized as stock just kept trudging higher.
VAPH 03/25 Test 50 7.59 +0.51 8.32 12 498K 1.8M 7.74
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 50 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on low volume.
VAR 03/03 Flat 84.1 -0.57 88.11 100 353K 750K 85.62
Current. Pull back testing the simple 50 day MVA and rallied showing a doji under the 10 day MVA on low volume.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 84.1 -0.57 64.5 74.25 353K 1.1M 85.62
Current.
VIP 01/03 Test BO 99.65 +1.4 73.34 85 330K 615K 94.88
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
ZBRA 03/06 Test 50 70.1 -0.07 70.88 84 170K 517K 69.42
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to make a lateral move showing a tight doji on low volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AZO 03/10 Put 85.87 +0.42 84 81.28 849K 1.1M 83.66
Current. Moved up holding the 200 day MVA on average volume. Should turn over from here.
End part 2 of 3
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