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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: APPX; CMRG; CNMD; DWCH; NVDA; TASR; UNFI; UOPX
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits: Our goal is to catch these as they start to rebound, grab the move, and then move on if it falters. Sometimes they keep going and going, other times they give us a small gain and stall. We like to bank the initial move and let it work for us further if it will.
New:
Play Date: 03/30/2004
BR (Burlington Resources--$62.23; +0.81; optionable): Independent oil & gas. Splits 2:1 on 6-2-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/br.html
STATUS: Double bottom. BR is working on the breakout from a 4 week base. Not bad action as the right leg undercut the left leg as it should in this kind of pattern. BR gapped lower Tuesday but rallied sharply with the oils. This little pattern follows a nice cup with handle June to December. Looking for volume to run higher as it makes the break from this little resting pattern.
Volume: 1.284M Avg Volume: 1.454M
BUY POINT: $62.65 Volume=1.7M Target=$67.65 Stop=$60.12
POSITION: BR EL - May $60c (79 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/br.html
New leader plays: May not be in position to split yet, but solid stocks ready to move.
Play Date: 03/30/2004
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$24.28; +0.32; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume is jumping as AVO heads toward the breakout from a 8 week base. It formed over the 50 day MVA (22.54), a good indication of support for the stock. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows money moving into the stock as it moved laterally. Money flow is surging up ahead of the price and relative strength is making the breakout.
Volume: 396.9K Avg Volume: 222.909K
BUY POINT: $24.45 Volume=334K Target=$29 Stop=$22.74
POSITION: AVO GX - July $22.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avo.html
Play Date: 03/30/2004
RBK (Reebok--$41.10; +0.79; optionable): Athletic shoes and apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rbk.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume is surging as RBK makes the breakout move from its 5 month pattern. Gapped higher Monday but gave much of the move back. Much like RHAT and its breakout, it moved right back up afterwards. Accumulation is excellent at 7 to 1. Looking to pick it up as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 1.236M Avg Volume: 590.772K
BUY POINT: $41.48 Volume=1M Target=$47.72 Stop=$39.62
POSITION: RBK GH - July $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rbk.html
Downside plays:
Play Date: 03/30/2004
^DJX (1/100 DJ-30--$103.82; +0.52; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/^djx.html
STATUS: Put. After a lower and lower volume rise up to the exponential 50 day MVA (103.59) DJX is getting setting up to fall. It may make it up to the simple 50 day MVA (104.73), but we are going to be ready for it if it stalls out here and starts lower.
Volume: 1.3M Avg Volume: 1.5M
BUY POINT: $103.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$100 Stop=$104.12
POSITION: DJV QA - May $105p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/^djx.html
Play Date: 03/30/2004
^OEX (OEX Options--$552.53; +2.07; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^oex.html
STATUS: Put. Similar to DJX, OEX has made a low volume rally up to the exponential 50 day MVA (552.74). We are anticipating another test lower before this correction is over. May try a bit higher, but we are going to be ready if it fails here and starts back down.
Volume: 1.3M Avg Volume: 1.5M
BUY POINT: $548.62 Volume=1.5M Target=$530.45 Stop=$553
POSITION: OEB QJ - May $550p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/^oex.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/08/2004
ENCY (Encysive Pharma--$10.04; +0.42; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ency.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume is starting to kick up, moving to average Tuesday. Still solid in its 10 week base showing strong 4 to 1 accumulation. Money flow continues to move ahead of price. Looking for volume to spike up as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 499.434K Avg Volume: 570.909K
BUY POINT: $10.78 Volume=917K Target=$12.95 Stop=$9.94
POSITION: IQE GB - July $10c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ency.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
UHCO (Universal American Finl.--$11.96; +0.03; no options): Life insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uhco.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried the breakout Tuesday on a sharp volume jump. It hit 12.43 and rolled back over. Still looks very solid in its 3 week lateral move over the 18 day MVA (11.59). This is a test of the breakout from its 16 week cup base sporting accumulation of 5 to 1. Money flow is solid and ahead of the price. Still looks ready.
Volume: 290.672K Avg Volume: 199.136K
BUY POINT: $12.25 Volume=315K Target=$14.72 Stop=$11.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uhco.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 6-21-04
APPB: Forecast 4-28-04.
BCR: Forecast 4/13 with earnings or 4/14 with its board meeting.
CHS: Forecast 5-27-04 after the close
DGX: Forecast 4-22-04 before the open.
ELAB: Researching next date.
GTK: Forecast 4-15-04 before the open.
HUG: Forecast 5-25-04 after the close.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LXK: Forecast 4-19-04 or 4-22-04 with its shareholder meeting.
MBG: Looking for next date as MBG continues to rally higher.
MBT: Forecast 3-30-04.
NCEN: Forecast 4-15. Trying to recover after dumping below the 50 day MVA.
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SONC: Forecast 6-21-04.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
STN: Forecast 4-20-04 before the open.
TOL: Researching the next date.
UOPX: Forecast 6-21-04.
VAR: VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04. No split announced, but record results shot it higher.
WFMI: Forecast 5-5-04 after the close.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/17/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$96.43; +1.99; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 4-13-04 in conjunction with earnings or 4-14-04 in conjunction with it shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split around 1-22-00 at a stock price of $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Flat base. After a nice move for us already, Bard is starting higher again, trying to make the breakout from an 8 week flat base sporting solid 2 to 0 accumulation. Volume was light on the Tuesday bump higher; we want to see more trade as it breaks out of the pattern.
Volume: 212.7K Avg Volume: 348.318K
BUY POINT: New: $96.94 (orig $80.93) Volume=500K Target=$111.48 Stop=$92.72
POSITION: BCR GS - July $95c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$83.66; +0.12; optionable): Medical Laboratories. Researching the exact date, but a nice pattern has formed up.
BACKGROUND. Announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-01 at a price of $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice pattern as it continues to form the handle to its 2 year base. Still moving laterally over the 50 day MVA (80.61) on low volume. 24 to 20 accumulation in the long base, setting up the foundation for a breakout. Looks solid, so we are just going to wait patiently for the breakout.
Volume: 434.3K Avg Volume: 639.454K
BUY POINT: $85.97 Volume=973K Target=$100 Stop=$81.72
POSITION: DGX HQ - Aug. $85c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Play Date: 03/25/2004
POOL (SCP Pool--$36.58; +0.55; optionable): Basic materials. Forecast to announce a split on 4-22-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings or on 5-6-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 8-8-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $37.50. Prior to this last announced the following 3 for 2 splits: 7-30-01 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of 38.60; on 5-11-00 in conjunction with the annual shareholder meeting at a stock price of $34. 3 for 2 splits were also announced in July 1998 and September 1997. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-6-04 at 10:00 CT at which time authorized shares will be increased.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pool.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moved through the buy point momentarily but volume was not there Tuesday. Volume was solid Monday but it needs to resume as the stock tries another breakout move. Still solid in its 20 week base showing solid 5 to 3 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 143.037K Avg Volume: 158.409K
BUY POINT: $36.62 Volume=227K Target=$43 Stop=$34.06
POSITION: QCL GG - July $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pool.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$70.1; -0.07; optionable): PC peripherals. Forecast to announce a split on 4-27-04 in conjunction with a board of director meeting or on 4-28-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-24-03 at a stock price of $76.5. The annual shareholder meeting will be on 6-3-04. Information on the time is not available at this time. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Holding up well over the 50 day (67.94) as it takes a breather after moving off that support level. Money flow continues to surge ahead of the price. This stock can run like the wind when it gets going. Looks like just a breather here, and then we look for some volume to come in as it follows the money flow higher.
Volume: 171.835K Avg Volume: 334.545K
BUY POINT: $70.88 Volume=517K Target=$84 Stop=$69.42
POSITION: ZBQ HN - Aug. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 03/25/2004
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$57.77; +0.27; optionable): Sporting goods. Splits 2:1 on 4-6-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Just cannot attract any volume as it moved off the 50 day MVA (54.92). Still a strong stock, but need to see some volume from here. Would prefer a test back to the 18 day MVA (56.23) and then a rebound on stronger trade.
Volume: 244.9K Avg Volume: 308K
BUY POINT: Test 56ish, then $56.88. Volume=450K Target=$65.55 Stop=$54.44
POSITION: DKS FL - June $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
PG (Procter & Gamble--$105.98; +1.10; optionable): Household goods. Splits 2:1 on 6-21-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: Flat. Volume started higher toward average as PG moved through the buy point. Thought about entering but given the market decided to wait and see if volume surged. It was not blowout, so we decided to wait and see if it could make the break through 106 on above average volume. Then we move in.
Volume: 3.216M Avg Volume: 3.211M
BUY POINT: New: $106.12 (orig. $104.92) Volume=4.2M Target=$115 Stop=$103.25
POSITION: PG GA - July $105c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pg.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 02/28/2004
COH (Coach--$42.10; 0.00; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Has moved up off the 50 day (39.60) but volume remained well below average. It has come back to test the 18 day MVA (40.95), tapping it on the Tuesday low and rebounding to close flat. Looking for volume to come in as it continues the rebound.
Volume: 1.034M Avg Volume: 1.499M
BUY POINT: New: 42.68 (orig. $41.66) Volume=2.5M Target=$47.88 Stop=$40.96
POSITION: COH HH - Aug. $40c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 03/25/2004
VAPH (Vaso Activ Pharma--$7.59; +0.51; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vaph.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Continues to hug the 50 day MVA (6.87) on below average volume. Volume jumped Friday as it tried to make the move, but it failed and volume faded back. Tuesday it was up, tapping at the 18 day MVA (7.80) on the high. Just being patient and waiting for a high volume move through this interim resistance.
Volume: 498.14K Avg Volume: 1.222M
BUY POINT: $8.32 Volume=1.8M Target=$12 Stop=$7.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vaph.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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