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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: How do you decide what stocks on the reports to put your money into?
A: This market is one where you find what sectors are working and stick with them, all the while keeping an eye out for the changing of the guard to the next leader groups. Are builders running into trouble here? Are some of the smaller techs ready to make a nice little move that could put 20% or more into our pockets? That is why we scan all sectors and find those that are shaping up the best so we can be ready to move into them.
We cover a lot of stocks. We look at the sectors and stocks that are performing well and look ready to perform. If they make the move we get into them. We have our best plays that we are focusing on, but we also keep all of the plays on watch. We then pick them off when they make their moves and our alert service is very useful in this regard. We have several accounts, but in each one we concentrate on just a handful of stocks and focus our money there. If one stops performing, we sell it and look for another stock to put the money in, either a new one or one that is working well for us when it gives us another buy point on a test of near term support or on the breakout from another basing pattern. That way our money ends up concentrated in winners that are performing the best in the market. Then we just have to watch when signs of institutional selling crop up, i.e., reversals on high volume after a strong move higher; as in the BZH example, institutions may be starting to take profits, and as we follow the institutions, we may want to do the same.
TEAM TRADES
IVX: Broke out of a cup with handle pattern on Thursday on strong volume, and we were looking to add to some positions Friday as the stock continued higher, gapping up at the open. The stock hit our buy point and we issued a market alert immediately. Then we went to looking for a buy point. The stock was all over the map with the ask bouncing all around between 41.03 and 41.19. It was literally jumping around on all of those trades, so we decided to go at the low end and put in a limit order at 41.05, the ask at the time we put the order in. Well, then a market order came in at 41.30 and the race higher was on. It ran to 41.90 in the first half hour without taking a pause. Then over the next three hours it sold down to the prior session's high near 40.70. We tried to buy it at 41.30, but at that point it ran away from us as well, so we decided to just put in an order for a test of the day's open price and plopped one in at 41; that gave us enough cushion to get hit even if it turned up early from 40.70. Well, it did not, and the fill was made on the way down. We were confident enough in doing this as we liked the breakout the prior day and things looked solid today in this fine stock in a fine sector. Well, in the last hour it was looking very good until it plunged about 50 cents in a few minutes. It bounced at 40.60 with 15 minutes left and closed at 41.06. Volume was a bit lower but still very high. We like the breakout from a good stock in a good sector.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
BEST PLAYS: BSML (covered 7-10) has had a great run, but is climbing now on below average volume. This run may be starting to fade. PATH headed back up Friday (on the report 7-09). BPFH made a good move up as well, showing stronger volume; check out Thursday's report for buy point, volume, and other details. GMCR is holding steady in its pattern as well, and we continue to like the ascending wedge formed by GGG (7-17).
Best Plays:
1) TGH: Getting ready to move up in its handle.
2) IXX: Looking for an earnings run.
3) SEIC: Back at support in its handle.
New:
TGH (Trigon Healthcare--$67.68; +0.57; optionable (TGH): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgh.html
STATUS: In a cup with handle base of 6.5-months. Currently the stock is in the handle of the base, having pulled back to the 10 day MVA (66.83) by the end of the week. Volume was below average all week, up slightly Friday to 272,700 (avg. 319,454) as the stock headed up from the support level. Look for a breakout over the handle high of 68.99 on strong volume. TGH shows strong money flow and relative strength that is out ahead of price. Target: 79-83.
BUY POINT: 69.12, on volume of 479,000 or better. Stop: 63.59. A buy on breakout up to 72.58.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $65 calls to buy (TGH JM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tgh.html
IXX (Ivex Packaging--$19.47; +0.18; no options): Consumer non-durables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ixx.html
STATUS: Earnings are out Thursday. The stock is in a wedging/flat base pattern since mid-June (pattern high is 19.75), the pattern showing average or lower volume throughout save a volume spike at the end of June. Currently support looks firm at the 18 day MVA (18.72), and the stock headed up from that level Thursday, continuing higher Friday as volume surged closed to average (72,600; avg. 84,000). We will look for a run into the earnings report and then breakout from this short base. IXX shows excellent money flow and pretty good buying; relative strength is ready to break out. Target: 25.
BUY POINT: 19.88, on volume of 134,000 or better. Stop: 18.29.
POSITION: Stock only.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ixx.html
Updated:
SEIC (Sei Investments--$48.59; -1.76; optionable (QEI): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/seic.html
STATUS: Covered 7-18 in its cup with handle pattern of 7 months. The stock looked ready to make its move Thursday after the company reported record earnings, but it pulled back Friday on lower volume (316,400; avg. 470,545), dropping back to the 18 day MVA (48.24). We were looking for a move back up from the 10 day MVA (49.25), but the test of the 18 day MVA extends the handle for a more proportionate balance to the overall pattern. SEIC shows good money flow, and buying is picking up. Target: 61.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 51.78 on volume of 706,000. Stop: 47.64.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $45 calls to buy (QEI II).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/seic.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: We have revamped this portfolio, dropping for now CPN, SGR, NATI and BRKS. Those stocks have, for the most part, dropped off and need to form bases or do some more work in ones already existing. To the New Leader section we are adding DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, and BMET. In the Previous Leader section, VRSN, VRTS, ADBE and SEBL are retained. Ones dropped include AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS and SCMR. All of these stocks will be kept on watch in context with improvement in their sectors and the market.
New Leaders: ESRX, LLL, ACS, NVDA, DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, BMET.
Previous Leaders in which we are still interested: ADBE, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
FRX (Forest Labs--$79.00; -0.66; optionable (FRX): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: FRX broke out of the 6-week cup base, boosted by strong earnings, reaching a high on the move at 82.33, then pulled back the next 2 days (Thursday and Friday) on decreasing volume. The stock showed a doji Friday as volume shrank to 1.23 million (avg. 1.3 million). Buy point in the base was 78.41; the intraday low tested 78.58, so the pullback may be close to the end. Looking for a move back up and breakout over 82.33. Target: 90.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 80.51, on volume in the range of 1.6 million. Stop: 74.07. Breakout: 82.46, on volume of 1.8 million or better. Stop: 75.86.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $80 calls to buy (FHA KP).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/frx.html
EBAY (Ebay--$66.80; +2.40; optionable (QXB): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Remains in the cup with handle base of 10 months, a pattern formed at the bottom of a much larger base (16 months). The company blew out earnings Thursday, and the stock tried to sell down on stronger volume, but it recovered back over the short term MVAs (65.90) where it closed Friday. Volume remained high that day, but was lower at 8.36 million (avg. 5.9 million). We are looking for EBAY to hold support here for a rally back to breakout. Showing strong money flow and high relative strength. Target: 82-86.
BUY POINT: 71.42, on volume of 8.9 million or better. Stop: 65.71. A buy on breakout up to 75.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $70 calls to buy (QXB JN).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ebay.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have revamped the Up & Comers portfolio, and are dropping EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST for now, adding BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG and AEOS.
LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI, THQI, BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG, AEOS.
BJ pulled back to test the 18 day MVA on low volume; the doji signals a move back up. We still love AEOS; buy point and volumes remain as on our last report.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aeos.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
We are pulling together the final tally to unveil this coming week.
We still like BRCM's ascending wedge pattern. Please see the 7-19 report for buy point, volume, and other details.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/brcm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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