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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: BEBE; CBR; MXT; NVDA; ODP; RHAT; ROV SKIL; TASR; PCR
Best Plays:
1) GISX: Nice pattern and money flow as it tests the breakout.
2) PHTN: Volume is rising as it falls back from the 200 day MVA.
3) QQQ: Struggling below the 50 day MVA.
4) ACR: Volume is solid as it tries to make the breakout.
5) NSTK: Nice volume as it looks ready to resume the breakout move.
6) OEX: Volume up as it churns below resistance.
NEW PLAYS:
Sticking with the stocks in solid patterns and looking for breakouts as they are the leaders and could really move when the rest of the market is ready.
Upside:
Play Date: 03/31/2004
GISX (Global Imaging Systems--$33.22; -0.28; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gisx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Holding up remarkably well, riding the 18 day MVA (33) laterally on below average volume. The stock broke out from a 9 week double bottom with handle in early March, rallied to 35, and in the recent market selling has eased back to this support level on that low trade. That shows very few sellers as it pulled back. During the pullback money flow continues to rise. Looks very good, but with all stocks at this juncture we want to see volume spike sharply and it hold the gain.
Volume: 85.271K Avg Volume: 173K
BUY POINT: $33.76 Volume=260K Target=$37.82 Stop=$32.88
POSITION: QHH HG - Aug. $35c (36 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gisx.html
Play Date: 03/31/2004
RHI (Robert Half Intl.--$23.62; -0.03; optionable): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. We look at these with some trepidation as the anticipation of the jobs report may exceed the actual results. The patterns are solid, however, and if Friday delivers a breakout we will take it. We will need to see volume and moves holding up into the close. Accumulation in this pattern is a solid 5 to 3 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows money moving in to the stock during the 11 week base that shows good action of undercutting the first leg with the second test lower this month. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and volume is strong. Nice handle forming and volume shooting higher. Looks ready.
Volume: 2.033M Avg Volume: 764.09K
BUY POINT: $24.02 Volume=1.1M Target=$27.65 Stop=$22.88
POSITION: RHI FX - June $22.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/31/2004
BWA (Borg Warner--$84.83; +0.27; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwa.html
STATUS: Put. Made us some money on the last plunge down to 80, and we are looking for another drop to make us some more scratch after this very low volume bounce back up to the 18 day MVA (85.04) after a high volume drop off of that level two weeks back.
Volume: 120.8K Avg Volume: 250.5K
BUY POINT: $84.55 Volume=250K Target=$81.28 Stop=$85.12
POSITION: BWA QQ - May $85p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bwa.html
Play Date: 03/31/2004
PHTN (Photon Dynamics--$32.63; -0.56; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phtn.html
STATUS: Put. Made us some money on the earlier drop, and looks ready again. PHTN cracked below the 200 day MVA (33.85) to stat the month and tanked to 28. It has now rebounded to the 200 day, but Tuesday it came close but rolled over on rising, above average volume. Money flow continues to tank as the stock moved higher. Looking for it to continue lower as volume remains solid.
Volume: 548.561K Avg Volume: 384.863K
BUY POINT: $32.48 Volume=550K Target=$29.48 Stop=$33.86
POSITION: PDU QZ - May $32.50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/phtn.html
Play Date: 03/31/2004
QQQ (QQQ Options--$35.84; -0.07; optionable): Nasdaq 100 Trust
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qqq.html
STATUS: Put. This index mirrors the NASDAQ 100, and it has faltered at the 50 day MVA (35.95) the past three sessions as volume dropped off. We are looking for the index to start lower on some rising volume. It may take until Friday before making the fall. We are going to be patient. Overall the market is still trending higher, and NASDAQ can rebound fast. These index puts are thus aggressive, but we made some money on the bounce up and believe a test is ahead and want to take advantage of that and then the move back up as well.
Volume: 86.069M Avg Volume: 92.526M
BUY POINT: $35.71 Volume=95M Target=$34.21 Stop=$35.98
POSITION: QQQ QK - May $37p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qqq.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/30/2004
ACR (American Retirment Corp.--$5.43; +0.03; no options): Long-term care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acr.html
STATUS: Flat base. Gapped up Tuesday as volume remained solid but backed off to just below average. Still working through a nice 8 week base showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation. Relative strength is solid along with money flow and relative strength ready to breakout.
Volume: 227.1K Avg Volume: 198.227K
BUY POINT: $5.62 Volume=290K Target=$6.78 Stop=$5.23
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acr.html
Play Date: 03/25/2004
CERN (Cerner--$45.10; -0.68; optionable): Healthcare information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cern.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Working on basically a handle 20 week base that is showing very good action in this market as it continues to hold over the 50 day MVA (43.57) in the entire pattern. Strong money flow and volume has been very low the past month as it makes this test. Just waiting for the big breakout.
Volume: 355.961K Avg Volume: 601.818K
BUY POINT: $45.12 Volume=986K Target=$51.88 Stop=$43.12
POSITION: CQN FI - June $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cern.html
Play Date: 03/20/2004
NSTK (Nastech Pharmaceuticals--$13.18; +0.37; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nstk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After a massive breakout from a solid 9 month flat base, NSTK has come back to test that move, holding the breakout on lower volume. It is now moving basically laterally, preparing for the next break higher. Wednesday volume was jumping back above average as the stock gapped higher and posted a modest gain. Looks ready to take off if the market will give it the green light.
Volume: 128.315K Avg Volume: 93.5K
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=135K Target=$16.12 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nstk.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
STG (Stonepath Group--$3.88; 0; no options): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Held the 50 day MVA (3.50) on the test of the breakout from the 30 week double bottom with handle base. It has moved up off of that level on improving volume but has stalled the past two sessions. Lower volume was good as it did pause. Now we need to see it continue on another strong volume move through the breakout point.
Volume: 231.6K Avg Volume: 402K
BUY POINT: New: 3.94 (orig. $4.04) Volume=563K Target=$5 Stop=$3.76
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stg.html
Play Date: 03/13/2004
WIND (Wind River Systems--$11.07; +0.06; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wind.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume has been surging the past two sessions but the action has been wild; all over the map is more like it. Wednesday the stock was at the 18 day MVA (10.38), then higher, then lower. Too much for us to get into. Now we may get a breakout now that it has these jitters out of the way.
Volume: 1.776M Avg Volume: 665.272K
BUY POINT: $10.72 Volume=850K Target=$12.88 Stop=$9.97
POSITION: QWV HB - Aug. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wind.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/30/2004
^DJX (1/100 DJ-30--$013.58; -0.24; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^djx.html
STATUS: Put. A hanging man doji after a low volume bounce from 100. Looks ready to fall from here still.
Volume: 1.477M Avg Volume: 1.5M
BUY POINT: $103.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$100 Stop=$104.12
POSITION: DJV QA - May $105p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^djx.html
Play Date: 03/30/2004
^OEX (OEX Options--$551.13; +2.07; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^oex.html
STATUS: Put. Struggling below the 50 day MVA (552.68) as volume rises to average levels as it shows some churning. Anticipating another test and this churning is another sign that portends that. Just waiting for it to make the move.
Volume: 1.477M Avg Volume: 1.5M
BUY POINT: $548.62 Volume=1.5M Target=$530.45 Stop=$553
POSITION: OEB QJ - May $550p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^oex.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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