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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: ACMR; ESMC; MAMA; MFN; OS; RATE; SMTS
Tuesday night play results:
AKS: Surged on volume but gave back most of the gains.
FMDAY: Gapped higher on strong trade but it too gave back much of the gain.
DJX: Churning at the 50 day MVA and still looks ready to fall.
New plays for Thursday:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/31/2004
CVNS (Covansys--$11.62; +1.10; no options): Information technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvns.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume surged as CVNS announced it had completed its accounting review that was conducted after the CFO resigned mid-month. That is taken as a signal by many a company is having problems, and the completion of the review finding no problems was a catalyst for some serious buying. The stock held up remarkably well in its 12 week flat base during all of the excitement, hanging tough at key support at the 50 day MVA (10.82). Volume dried up in the middle of the base then started to swell the past two weeks. Accumulation in the base is solid at 3 to 1 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), showing money was moving into the stock as well. Looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 347.471K Avg Volume: 147.136K
BUY POINT: $11.78 Volume=210K Target=$14.15 Stop=$10.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cvns.html
Play Date: 03/31/2004
IVIL (Ivillage--$6.84; +0.45; optionable): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivil.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A short 5 week pattern has developed to test the Nice run from December to February after IVIL broke out of a tight flat base. Accumulation in the current pattern is 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). That shows money was flowing into the stock even as it took a breather. Money flow is surging higher and relative strength is breaking out as the stock starts to surge out of this pattern on very strong volume.
Volume: 2.014M Avg Volume: 491.954K
BUY POINT: $6.95 Volume=738K Target=$8.35 Stop=$6.46
POSITION: JUR GU - July $7.50c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ivil.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/31/2004
QQQ (QQQ Options--$35.84; -0.07; optionable): Nasdaq 100 Trust
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qqq.html
STATUS: Put. This index mirrors the NASDAQ 100, and it has faltered at the 50 day MVA (35.95) the past three sessions as volume dropped off. We are looking for the index to start lower on some rising volume. It may take until Friday before making the fall. We are going to be patient. Overall the market is still trending higher, and NASDAQ can rebound fast. These index puts are thus aggressive, but we made some money on the bounce up and believe a test is ahead and want to take advantage of that and then the move back up as well.
Volume: 86.069M Avg Volume: 92.526M
BUY POINT: $35.71 Volume=95M Target=$34.21 Stop=$35.98
POSITION: QQQ QK - May $37p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qqq.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AVID, COH, DIS, EBAY; GTRC, HD; KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, TJX; UTSI, XMSR
GTRC: Upside breakout on some pretty decent volume. Another all-time high.
KKD: Rollin over at the 18 day MVA and the down trendline. Looks ready for another put play.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
HOLL: It broke higher last Friday but volume did not follow. Now it is moving higher with a very good volume surge Wednesday on top of Tuesday.
EVCI: Still working up the short term MVA on strong volume.
Downside:
IDTI: Trying to get back through the 200 day MVA. Volume was up, but it fell back after breaking through that level. It is trying to form a bottom here but could still give another test to 13.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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