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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: APPX; CMRG; CNMD; DWCH; NVDA; TASR; UNFI; UOPX
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Splits: Our goal is to catch these as they start to rebound, grab the move, and then move on if it falters. Sometimes they keep going and going, other times they give us a small gain and stall. We like to bank the initial move and let it work for us further if it will.
New:
Play Date: 04/01/2004
FOSL (Fossil--$33.72; +0.46; optionable): Watches, etc. Splits 3:2 on 4-12-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Getting closer to the split date and forming up well. After breaking higher in late February it has moved laterally over 32. Looks very good in this pattern, and we are looking for a breakout on strong trade to enter.
Volume: 240.347K Avg Volume: 241.227K
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=310K Target=$40 Stop=$32.96
POSITION: FUA FG - June $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
New leader plays: May not be in position to split yet, but solid stocks ready to move.
Play Date: 04/01/2004
MTSN (Mattson Technology--$13.01; +1.05; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtsn.html
STATUS: Cup. MTSN is one of those stocks we noted coming off the bottom of its base. It is still working on the base, currently a 5 month cup forming over the 200 day MVA (10.05). It moved laterally on very low volume over that key support level the past 8 weeks. It then narrowed its range this week and leapt higher on above average volume. Accumulation at this stage of the base is 6 to 3 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is simply shooting higher ahead of the price. We are looking for the stock to follow that money. Initial target is the top of the pattern, but we would be inclined to let part of the position run when it hits that target.
Volume: 769.342K Avg Volume: 571.272K
BUY POINT: $13.22 Volume=800K Target=$15.95 Stop=$12.29
POSITION: QQM GV - July $12.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtsn.html
Play Date: 04/01/2004
RCOM (Register.Com--$6.00; +0.08; no options): Internet domain registration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A rather low volume stock, but we like the pattern, a 7 month base sporting outstanding 12 to 2 accumulation. That shows us that money has steadily moved into the stock over the course of the base. In addition, money flow is surging ahead of price even as it pulls back in the handle to the base. This is the point where the last sellers are shaken out as the stock falls back just shy of its prior high when the base started. Just waiting for that stock to blast higher out of the pattern.
Volume: 69.7K Avg Volume: 150K
BUY POINT: $6.24 Volume=225K Target=$7.85 Stop=$5.79
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rcom.html
Play Date: 04/01/2004
UBET (Youbet.com--$4.19; +0.55; no options): Internet services and software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ubet.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. UBET is in the process of breaking out from its 8.5 month base sporting strong 10 to 6 accumulation. Volume surged Thursday as UBET took off. It rallied to 4.48 on the high but gave some back late in the session. Looking for volume to remain strong as it continues the move. Many of these internets have come to life, following EBAY's big gain Thursday.
Volume: 1.053M Avg Volume: 190.954K
BUY POINT: $4.32 Volume=325K Target=$5.42 Stop=$4.02
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ubet.html
Downside plays:
Play Date: 04/01/2004
DO (Diamond Offshore--$23.33; -0.86; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
STATUS: Put. After a strong December to early March rally DO peaked and then came back to test the 50 day MVA (23.98). that is normal. It could not bounce, however, something you want to see in a continuing uptrend. It struggled 6 sessions and then gave up Thursday, falling on a strong volume surge. Note that this struggle occurred even as OPEC was supposed to cut production, and tanked when the cut was announced. Looking for a fade here toward the 200 day MVA.
Volume: 1.974M Avg Volume: 1.18M
BUY POINT: $23.12 Volume=1.5M Target=$21.06 Stop=$24.02
POSITION: DO RE - June $25p (-79 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/29/2004
EEFT (Euronet Worldwide--$18.95; -0.06; no options): Business management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eeft.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still looking nice as it continues to form the handle to its 6 week base sporting 3 to 1 accumulation. A very flat, tight handle is forming, and that often precedes the breakout. Looking for the move through the buy point on strong trade.
Volume: 152.636K Avg Volume: 152.954K
BUY POINT: $20.38 Volume=225K Target=$24.68 Stop=$18.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eeft.html
Play Date: 03/08/2004
ENCY (Encysive Pharma--$10.59; +0.31; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ency.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume has jumped the past two sessions and ENCY is trying the breakout move. It hit the buy Thursday but faded toward the close. Still looks very good in its 10 week base showing strong 4 to 1 accumulation. Money flow is solid and relative strength is making the breakout move, a sign of strength in the market.
Volume: 766.326K Avg Volume: 536.5K
BUY POINT: $10.78 Volume=917K Target=$12.95 Stop=$9.94
POSITION: IQE GB - July $10c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ency.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of as the market and economy recovers.
AGN: Forecast 4-26-04.
APOL: Forecast 6-21-04
APPB: Forecast 4-28-04.
BCR: Forecast 4/13 with earnings or 4/14 with its board meeting.
CHS: Forecast 5-27-04 after the close
DGX: Forecast 4-22-04 before the open.
ELAB: Researching next date.
GTK: Forecast 4-15-04 before the open.
HUG: Forecast 5-25-04 after the close.
IDXX: Forecast 4-19-04.
LM: Researching next possible date.
LXK: Forecast 4-19-04 or 4-22-04 with its shareholder meeting.
MBG: Looking for next date as MBG continues to rally higher.
MBT: Forecast 3-30-04. No announced yet but MBT continues to surge for us.
NCEN: Forecast 4-15
OSI: Forecast 4-15-04.
SONC: Forecast 6-21-04.
STJ: Forecast 4-12-04 in conjunction with earnings.
STN: Forecast 4-20-04 before the open.
TOL: Researching the next date.
UOPX: Forecast 6-21-04.
VAR: VAR is calling a special shareholder meeting to increase authorized shares. Date has not been released yet and VAR will file a proxy statement to that effect.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04. No split announced, but record results shot it higher. Working on the next date as it continues to rally for us.
WFMI: Forecast 5-5-04 after the close.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 04/01/2004
UCBH (UCBH Holdings--$41.48; +1.44; optionable): Pacific regional bank. Forecast to announce a split on 4-8-04 in conjunction with earnings or on 4-29-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-19-03 in conjunction with a board meeting at a price of $43. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-14-01 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $49. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 4-29-04 at 10:00 Pacific at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ucbh.html
STATUS: Flat base. UCBH is in the process of making the breakout move from its 4 month flat base. Accumulation in the pattern is 4 to 2, solid, steady buying during the base. Money flow is solid. Volume jumped Thursday as UCBH started the breakout move. Looking to pick it up on a further strong volume move.
Volume: 322.631K Avg Volume: 266.409K
BUY POINT: $41.62 Volume=400K Target=$47.85 Stop=$39.54
POSITION: AUW FH - June $40c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ucbh.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$82.5; -0.33; optionable): Medical Laboratories. Researching the exact date, but a nice pattern has formed up.
BACKGROUND. Announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-01 at a price of $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DGX continues its nice, flat range over the 18 day MVA (82.27) that is the handle to its big, 2 year base. 24 to 20 accumulation in the long base, setting up the foundation for a breakout. Again, we just have to be patient and let this one make the volume breakout.
Volume: 453K Avg Volume: 639.09K
BUY POINT: $85.97 Volume=973K Target=$100 Stop=$81.72
POSITION: DGX HQ - Aug. $85c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Play Date: 02/07/2004
OSI (Outback Steakhouse--$49.43; +0.73; optionable): Steakhouse attempting to be Australian. Forecast to announce a split on 4-15-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but base upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in November 1991 at approximately $26. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-23-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OSI moved out of a 3 month base in late February and has now formed another short 4 week cup over the 18 day MVA (48.35). Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the new little base. Volume jumped Thursday on a very strong surge. Looking to move in on a new break higher.
Volume: 1.156M Avg Volume: 441.681K
BUY POINT: New: $49.68 (orig. $48.68) Volume=650K Target=$57 Stop=$47.72
POSITION: OSI HJ - Aug. $50c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osi.html
Play Date: 03/09/2004
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$70.19; +1.67; optionable): Dental supplies. Forecast to announce a split May 2004 and pinpointing the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume is moving back up Thursday as PDCO announced the completed sale of one of its units. The market likes this news, and it is clear the market is building a very nice 4.5 month base. We want to see volume shoot higher as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 444.267K Avg Volume: 473.727K
BUY POINT: $70.12 Volume=759K Target=$81 Stop=$66.65
POSITION: DOU GN - July $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Play Date: 03/06/2004
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$70.82; +1.45; optionable): PC peripherals. Forecast to announce a split on 4-27-04 in conjunction with a board of director meeting or on 4-28-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-24-03 at a stock price of $76.5. The annual shareholder meeting will be on 6-3-04. Information on the time is not available at this time. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Still looks solid as it continues to move laterally over the 50 day MVA (68.11). Thursday the stock posted a solid gain, but volume has yet to follow. Money flow, however, continues to move up sharply ahead of price, and we are looking for price to follow but need to see more volume.
Volume: 214.189K Avg Volume: 331.045K
BUY POINT: $70.88 Volume=517K Target=$84 Stop=$69.42
POSITION: ZBQ HN - Aug. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 03/13/2004
DNA (Genentech--$108.9; +3.08; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. DNA bounced Thursday, finally moving out of the week long lateral move. Volume was up but still below average as it made the move, and that held us back. The stock just continued to climb, however, as pre-splits will. We anticipate a slight test back Friday. We will look at opening a position on that move and then look again on the next test.
Volume: 2.387M Avg Volume: 2.66M
BUY POINT: New: Test $107.50, then 108 on the way back up (orig. $106.92) Volume=4M Target=$120 Stop=$105
POSITION: DNA FT - June $110c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dna.html
Play Date: 03/27/2004
UNFI (United Natural Foods--$48; -0.37; no options): Natural foods wholesale. Splits 2:1 on 4-20-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unfi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. UNFI looked to be off to the races Tuesday, moving off the 10 day MVA (47.97) on above average volume. It immediately came back, but it held the 18 day MVA (47.45), showing a doji at that level. Expecting that pre-split momentum to kick back in and break it higher again.
Volume: 183.03K Avg Volume: 176.363K
BUY POINT: $48.88 Volume=260K Target=$56.22 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/unfi.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 03/23/2004
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$44.75; +0.88; optionable): Personal care products.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. ACV exploded out of a 4 month base in early march and rallied to 47. It tested the 50 day MVA (43.20) on lower volume in the market selling. It found bottom Wednesday and was surging again Thursday. Looking to pick it up from here on a continued above average volume move.
Volume: 654.3K Avg Volume: 533.227K
BUY POINT: $45.62 Volume=700K Target=$52 Stop=$44.12
POSITION: ACV FI - June $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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