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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
Due to spotty delivery of part 3, we are re-sending it. No change from the prior part 3 if you have already received it.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AXCM; MIL; ODP; SWIR; WEBX; WIND; FSH; TASR
Best Plays:
1) ANSR: Making a break higher on very strong volume.
2) QSFT: Nice pattern on the cusp of the breakout.
3) AZR: Very nice test of the breakout with volume now jumping higher.
4) NCOG: Volume is surging as is money flow. Looks ready to jump.
5) RCOM: Moving on strong volume.
6) SLTC: Nice breakout test.
7) TELK: The pattern has really formed up well.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/04/2004
AZR (Aztar--$24.41; +0.20; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AZR is testing the breakout from a 5 month flat base. AZR broke out in late March and has moved laterally the past week over the 10 day MVA (24.01), holding onto its gains as it does. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 6 to 1 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). That shows money moving into the stock during the lateral base. Friday volume surged to well above average as the stock showed a tight doji. That often signals a stock is ready to continue the move.
Volume: 505.4K Avg Volume: 265K
BUY POINT: $24.78 Volume=400K Target=$29 Stop=$23.88
POSITION: AZR HE - Aug. $25c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/azr.html
Play Date: 04/03/2004
ANSR (Answerthink--$8.02; +0.36; no options): Information technology software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansr.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume shot higher Friday as ANSR started to make the breakout move from a short 5 week base. We call it flat, but it also resembles a double bottom with handle base. Accumulation is strong at 4 to 0 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). That shows money continues to move into the stock even as it moved laterally. It formed over the 50 day MVA (7.15), a further sign of strength. It is also a leader in sales and revenue growth. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout as well.
Volume: 1.412M Avg Volume: 283.13K
BUY POINT: $8.12 Volume=425K Target=$9.78 Stop=$7.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ansr.html
Play Date: 04/03/2004
NCOG (NCO Group--$23.88; +0.33; optionable): Accounts receivable management and collection services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncog.html
STATUS: Double bottom. NCOG is working through a 6 month base that formed over the 200 day MVA (22.31). Accumulation in the base is strong at 6 to 2 (6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume) even at this point when it is just starting to turn back up toward the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern at 25. Money flow is excellent and surging higher ahead of price. Volume shot higher Friday, and it looks as if NCOG is ready to turn higher here and follow the money flow.
Volume: 502.481K Avg Volume: 144.303K
BUY POINT: $24.06 Volume=250K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.96
POSITION: GCQ FX - June $22.50c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncog.html
Play Date: 04/03/2004
NOVN (Noven Pharmaceuticals--$23.20; +0.70; optionable): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/novn.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. NOVN is making its second test of the 50 day MVA (20.64) for the second time this year after a super breakout from a 9 month base back in December. It is making big, sharp bounces off of the 50 day as it makes its breakout run, and it just came back to test the 50 day after the latest run higher. Friday the stock broke cleanly away form the 50 day on rising though still below average volume. Want to see a bit more trade as it move up from here, following its strong money flow higher.
Volume: 256.893K Avg Volume: 330.15K
BUY POINT: $23.38 Volume=495K Target=$28 Stop=$21.95
POSITION: NPQ JX - Oct. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/novn.html
Play Date: 04/03/2004
QSFT (Quest Software--$16.74; +0.46; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qsft.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. QSFT spent last week forming a short handle to its 3 month base. Friday it tried to make a move higher but could not garner the volume it needed to really make a breakout move. Solid 4 to 1 accumulation in the base. It is a leading stock in terms of sales and earnings growth, a very nice combination with the solid technical pattern.
Volume: 902.438K Avg Volume: 1.035M
BUY POINT: $16.92 Volume=1.5M Target=$20.32 Stop=$15.74
POSITION: QUD GC - July $5c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qsft.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/30/2004
ACR (American Retirment Corp.--$5.55; +0.15; no options): Long-term care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acr.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume was up to average again Friday as ACT continues to show signs of making the breakout from its 7 week base sporting solid 3 to 0 accumulation. Relative strength is ready to break out and money flow is solid. Just being patient.
Volume: 202.6K Avg Volume: 203.688K
BUY POINT: $5.62 Volume=290K Target=$6.78 Stop=$5.23
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acr.html
Play Date: 02/25/2004
ARRY (Array Biopharma--$8.90; -0.10; no options): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arry.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ARRY continues to move laterally over the 18 day MVA (8.76), consolidating the late February breakout from a 2 month cup base. Money flow is strong and volume was up above average Friday. Looking for ARRY to make the next move from here, but want to see the volume continue.
Volume: 237.637K Avg Volume: 247.296K
BUY POINT: New: $9.28 (orig. $7.90) Volume=300K Target=$11.12 (orig. positions: $9.48) Stop=$8.62
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arry.html
Play Date: 03/24/2004
CRXL (Crucell--$8.90; +0.38; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crxl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday CRXL jumped higher on some stronger volume. This looks like the start of the breakout from its 9 week base. We wanted to see more volume on this move, but if it can make another solid volume move this week to continue the break higher, we will move in. Super money flow and relative strength making the breakout, an indication of a solid move.
Volume: 288.944K Avg Volume: 257.661K
BUY POINT: $8.35 Volume=350K Target=$10.06 Stop=$7.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crxl.html
Play Date: 03/31/2004
GISX (Global Imaging Systems--$33.54; 0; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gisx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Continues to move laterally over the 18 day MVA (33.11) after breaking out from a 9 week double bottom with handle in early March. It is testing the run up to 35, moving laterally on very low volume. Money flow continues to rise ahead of the stock, and we are looking for it to make a break higher from here.
Volume: 106.357K Avg Volume: 178.421K
BUY POINT: $33.76 Volume=260K Target=$37.82 Stop=$32.88
POSITION: QHH HG - Aug. $35c (36 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gisx.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
LTD (The Limited--$20.24; +0.37; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LTD is working on a 5 week base that is actually the handle to a much larger 2 year base. It formed the current pattern over the 50 day MVA (19.21), a sign of big money support. It has started up off of that level but volume has not started to rise with it. We are just looking for a strong shot of volume to show that the big money is now moving in again and driving it higher.
Volume: 2.624M Avg Volume: 3.015M
BUY POINT: New: $20.38 (orig. $19.68) Volume=3.9M Target=$23.62 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: LTD HD - Aug. $20c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ltd.html
Play Date: 04/01/2004
RCOM (Register.Com--$6.23; +0.23; no options): Internet domain registration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume moved higher Friday, but was still just below average as RCOM made a solid move. It is knocking on the door of a breakout from its 7 month base sporting outstanding 12 to 2 accumulation. That shows us that money has steadily moved into the stock over the course of the base. Money flow continues to surge ahead of price. Looks ready to make its move.
Volume: 131.477K Avg Volume: 149.1K
BUY POINT: $6.24 Volume=225K Target=$7.85 Stop=$5.79
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rcom.html
Play Date: 03/31/2004
RHI (Robert Half Intl.--$25.24; +1.32; optionable): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. It sure looked good Thursday night, and sure enough RHI exploded higher Friday, gapping to 25. It ran to 26.44 on the high, but then gave back $1.20 off that move to close. Volume surged as the stock moved higher. We really looked at entering, but with the extreme move back off the high we decided to wait and see if we get some filling of the gap higher. Very solid still in its 11 week base sporting solid 5 to 3 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) and surging money flow. Want to see it test back toward 24 and then resume the move.
Volume: 2.756M Avg Volume: 853.397K
BUY POINT: New: Test toward 24.50ish, then 24.88 on the way back up (orig. $24.02) Volume=1.1M Target=$27.65 Stop=$22.88
POSITION: RHI FX - June $22.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhi.html
Play Date: 04/01/2004
SLTC (Selectica--$5.56; +0.06; no options): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sltc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. STLC is moving laterally on below average volume the past four sessions, making a nice lateral test of the 5.5 month ascending triangle breakout. Surging money flow and solid accumulation have set up a very good base for a move higher. Looking for another strong break to the upside on above average volume to move into positions.
Volume: 138.506K Avg Volume: 178.278K
BUY POINT: $5.72 Volume=242K Target=$6.95 Stop=$5.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sltc.html
Play Date: 03/29/2004
TELK (Telik--$28.00; +0.90; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/telk.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. The pattern has formed up quite well as it continues to work up the 50 day MVA (25.47) and recently the 18 day MVA (26.55) below a constant high at 28. This pattern builds pressure from below and it also eats away at that overhead supply as it makes higher and higher lows. Very solid looking and ready to make the breakout move over 78.
Volume: 432.066K Avg Volume: 612.455K
BUY POINT: $28.78 Volume=880K Target=$33.12 Stop=$26.77
POSITION: ZUL GE - July $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/telk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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