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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: LTD; GISX; SLTC; TASR; TLCV
NEW PLAYS
Play Date: 04/06/2004
TMWD (Tumbleweed Communication--$7.72; -0.19; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmwd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TMWD looks as if it is forming the handle to its 17 week base, a shallow cup that formed more or less over the 50 day MVA (7.14). Solid 4 to 1 accumulation in the base shows money moving in as it rested. Volume shot higher Friday and Monday, and Tuesday it was working slightly back on lower, below average volume trade. Excellent money flow is moving up ahead of the stock. May take another day or two to complete the handle, but we want to be ready for the breakout move.
Volume: 181.518K Avg Volume: 370.59K
BUY POINT: $8.12 Volume=556K Target=$9.75 Stop=$7.55
POSITION: MYQ IU - Sept. $7.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tmwd.html
Play Date: 04/06/2004
NGEN (Nanogen--$9.54; +0.21; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngen.html
STATUS: Cup. NGEN is coming off the bottom of a 10 week base, and looks ready to form the right side of the pattern. Volume was very low in February and March as it bottomed, then shot higher starting last week as it moved through the 50 day MVA (8.53) and had sidestepped this week. Volume is shooting higher ahead of price and it is already showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation at this point in the base. That will only get better as it builds its base. Looking to pick up some positions on a volume break higher here and ride it toward the top of the pattern. Then we can take some gain, let it form a handle, and then pick up more shares as it breaks out again.
Volume: 6.924M Avg Volume: 3.697M
BUY POINT: $10.12 Volume=5.5M Target=$12.22 Stop=$9.41
POSITION: QEM FB - June $10c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ngen.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACCL 04/01 Flat 22.07 -0.17 22.48 25.75 192K 250K 20.66
Buy Not Issued.
ACCL 02/21 Test 50 22.07 -0.17 20.59 24.75 192K 246K 20.12
Current.
ACR 03/30 Flat 5.45 -0.05 5.62 6.78 43K 290K 5.23
Buy Not Issued.
ACXM 03/17 Test 18 23.56 +0.18 21.29 25.55 1.3M 800K 21.88
Current.
ANSR 04/03 DB hdl 7.62 -0.25 8.29 10 749K 425K 7.66
Current.
ARRY 04/05 Test 18 9.15 -0.25 9.52 11.38 555K 300K 8.82
Buy Not Issued.
ARRY 02/25 Test 50 9.15 -0.25 7.9 9.48 555K 300K 8.62
Current.
ASKJ 03/18 BO 38.32 -0.94 31.44 37.95 2.3M 3.7M 35.55
Current.
AZR 04/04 Test BO 25.6 +0.13 25.56 29.55 266K 400K 23.82
Current.
BEBE 03/13 Cup hdl 34.51 -0.03 31.88 36.55 215K 200K 31.98
Current.
CBR 03/17 Cup hdl 11.15 -0.04 10.65 12.78 199K 750K 10.78
Current.
CERN 03/25 Test 50 44.5 -0.24 45.12 51.88 287K 986K 43.12
Buy Not Issued.
CHIC 04/05 Test BO 18.25 -0.5 18.88 22 223K 375K 17.56
Buy Not Issued. Started the move but again stalled at 19 as it could
not garner any volume. Still looks solid & just needs
a better market day.
CHT 01/22 Cup hdl 18.01 0 15.75 18.92 443K 1.1M 17.22
Current.
CHTT 02/14 Cup hdl 27.77 +0.34 22.25 26.48 141K 282K 25.42
Current.
CRXL 03/24 Cup hdl 9.01 +0.07 8.35 10.06 76K 350K 7.77
Buy Not Issued.
CYTC 03/17 Test 18 22.26 -0.44 21.84 26.22 979K 2.2M 21.21
Current.
CYTC 03/01 Cup hdl 22.26 -0.44 20.24 24 979K 1.7M 21.21
Current.
EASY 04/05 Flat 1.7 -0.11 1.88 2.45 701K 557K 1.68
Buy Not Hit.
FSH 03/29 Flat 58.43 +0.61 54.52 62.75 1.4M 1.6M 54.58
Current.
GISX 03/31 Test BO 36.75 +2.38 33.76 37.82 486K 260K 32.88
Buy Not Issued. Strong session. Given the markets overall weakness
we kept looking for a modest pullback to give us a
good entry point. It just kept rising & rising. Will
look for a test to make the entry.
GTI 03/20 A Wedge 15.36 -0.11 15.03 17.62 571K 1.8M 14.54
Current.
HMP 03/08 A Wedge 2.21 -0.04 2.16 2.84 36K 150K 2.08
Current.
HYSL 03/01 A Wedge 40.76 -1.11 38.72 44.38 641K 1.1M 36.68
Buy Not Issued.
LTD 03/22 Test 50 21.14 +0.59 21.16 25.15 5.1M 3.9M 20.08
Entered today.
MAMA 03/16 Test BO 14.12 -1.54 10.04 13.12 10M 6M 13.96
Current.
MER 03/04 A Wedge 59.7 -0.58 63.79 72 3.2M 6.5M 58.95
Current.
MER 02/14 A Wedge 59.7 -0.58 61.96 70.55 3.2M 6.5M 60.32
Current.
MIL 02/07 Test BO 53.37 -0.8 50.44 58 136K 500K 51.45
Current.
MPS 03/29 A Wedge 11.52 -0.35 11.28 13.55 330K 550K 10.49
Buy Not Issued.
MXT 03/22 Cup hdl 7.98 -0.14 7.77 9.32 504K 1.7M 7.42
Current.
NCOG 04/03 Dbl btm 23.84 -0.06 24.06 28.45 145K 250K 22.96
Buy Not Issued.
NMGC 03/03 Flat 4.18 -0.22 5.1 6.18 286K 488K 4.88
Exited.
NOVN 04/03 Test 50 22.47 -0.53 23.38 28 127K 495K 21.95
Buy Not Issued.
NSCN 04/03 Cup 37.83 -0.64 38.68 44.48 777K 4M 35.88
Buy Not Issued. Very low volume continues as it works laterally and
forms the handle. Raised by point accordingly to let
the handle fomr and then show us a strong breakout.
NSTK 03/20 Test 18 13.15 -0.45 13.42 16.12 63K 135K 12.48
Buy Not Issued.
NVDA 03/24 Test 50 26.14 -1.1 23.94 28.75 5.2M 6M 24.78
Current.
NVTL 03/27 Flat 23.54 +0.28 21.95 26.22 720K 1.1M 21.68
Current.
ODP 03/27 Cup hdl 19.41 -0.04 18.65 22.25 2.2M 2.4M 18.28
Current.
PLXT 03/03 A Wedge 11.04 -0.45 11.26 13.42 145K 218K 10.47
Current.
QLTI 02/17 FlyPlat 28.73 +0.07 26.48 31 1.1M 2M 25.96
Current.
QSFT 04/03 Cup hdl 16.53 -0.24 16.92 20.32 715K 1.5M 15.74
Buy Not Hit.
R 03/30 Flat 39.84 +0.07 38.33 44.85 254K 600K 38.08
Current.
RCOM 04/01 Cup hdl 5.75 -0.28 6.24 7.85 61K 225K 5.79
Buy Not Hit.
RECN 03/22 Rv H&S 43.92 -1.02 36.16 43.38 152K 225K 42.08
Current.
RHAT 04/05 Test BO 24.12 -0.56 24.88 29 5.5M 8.8M 23.14
Buy Not Hit.
RHAT 03/24 Flat 24.12 -0.56 20.66 24.85 5.5M 7.3M 21.25
Current.
RHI 03/31 DB hdl 24.89 -0.47 24.02 27.65 985K 1.1M 22.88
Buy Not Issued.
ROV 03/27 Flat 30.01 +0.06 28.12 33.65 490K 705K 27.41
Current.
SGMS 03/01 Dbl btm 21.44 +0.34 18.85 22.62 954K 1.1M 19.48
Current.
SKIL 01/03 Cup hdl 12.9 -0.3 9.32 11.24 834K 518K 11.98
Current.
SLTC 04/01 A Wedge 5.6 +0.13 5.72 6.95 355K 242K 5.32
Buy Not Issued.
STSI 03/13 Cup hdl 4.08 -0.32 4.46 5.44 392K 285K 4.22
SWIR 03/18 Test BO 41.7 -1.53 32.22 37.25 1.6M 1.3M 38.55
Current.
SWIR 03/06 BO 41.7 -1.53 31.88 36.85 1.6M 1.1M 38.55
Current.
SWKS 04/05 Rv H&S 11.95 -0.51 12.55 15.12 6.4M 5M 11.67
Buy Not Issued. Volume was solid and it was looking good. It just ran
out of gas and gave the Monday move back. Not great
action but still in a good pattern for now. Will let
it reload and see if it can deliver.
TASR 03/25 Cup hdl 92.25 +13.75 66.29 76.25 20M 6.8M 79.98
Current. Was softer (though hardly weak) on reports Tasers were
killing people. Then announced another stock split
and was off to the races.
TELK 03/29 A Wedge 28.73 -0.31 28.82 33.12 383K 880K 27.15
Current.
TEO 02/23 Test 50 10.73 -0.01 10.61 12.72 147K 520K 10.48
Current.
TLCV 03/11 Test 18 12.65 +0.3 12.11 14.34 821K 1.2M 11.72
Current.
TOM 02/28 Cup hdl 17.92 +0.16 16.84 20.12 226K 850K 16.98
Current.
VOXX 02/21 A Wedge 19.81 -0.46 16.29 19.62 124K 160K 18.98
Current.
VRNT 03/15 Cup hdl 30.32 -1.05 27.88 33.45 76K 200K 28.88
Current.
WAT 03/20 Cup hdl 40.76 -0.24 40 46.12 1.1M 850K 39.88
Current.
WEBX 02/25 Test 18 31.72 -0.25 27.27 31.35 1.9M 1M 30.88
Current.
WIND 03/13 Test BO 12.42 -0.28 11.98 14.32 626K 850K 11.64
Current.
WSTM 03/08 Cup hdl 3 0 2.78 3.65 176K 234K 2.65
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 03/30 Put 561.58 -1.28 554 530.45 0 1.5M 559
Buy Not Hit.
AZO 03/10 Put 85.6 -0.66 84 81.28 1.1M 1.1M 83.66
Current.
BWA 03/31 Put 87.43 +1.15 84.55 81.28 250K 250K 85.12
Buy Not Issued.
DO 04/01 Put 23.3 -0.2 23.12 21.06 710K 1.5M 24.02
Buy Not Hit.
OII 04/05 Put 30.2 +0.03 29.75 27.72 244K 275K 30.95
Buy Not Hit.
PPP 03/29 Put 44.95 -0.58 43.75 41 322K 500K 44.68
Buy Not Hit.
TXT 03/15 Put 54.13 -0.22 51.7 48.65 763K 800K 53.36
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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