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stock recommendation, stock market report
Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
4-13-04
Business inventories, February (8:30): 0.7% actual, 0.5% expected, 0.2% January (revised from 0.1%).
Retail sales, March (8:30): 1.8% actual, 0.7% expected, 1.0% February (revised from 0.7%).
Retail sales ex-auto: 1.7% actual, 0.6% expected, 0.6% February (revised from 0.0%).
4-14-04
Trade balance, February (8:30): -$42.5B expected, -$43.1B January
CPI, March (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% February.
Core CPI: 0.2% expected, 0.2% February.
4-15-04
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 335K expected, 328K prior.
NY Empire State PMI, April (8:30): 29.0 expected, 25.3 March.
Philly Fed PMI, April (12:00): 26.0 expected, 24.2 March.
4-16-04
Housing starts, March (8:30): 1.9M expected, 1.855M February.
Permits, March (8:30): 1.910M expected, 1.909M February.
Industrial production, March (9:15): 0.3% expected, 0.7% February.
Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 76.8% expected, 76.6% February
Michigan preliminary sentiment, April (9:45): 97.0 expected, 95.8 March.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: NSTK; AZO
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 04/13/2004
GMT (GATX Corp.--$21.77; -0.69; optionable): Rental and leasing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmt.html
STATUS: Put. Big tank to end January, and then GMT has tried to recover in the intervening 9 weeks. It broke the 200 day MVA (22.82), however, a level where institutions tend to abandon a stock. It tried to recover that level, but after a 2 week fight it has started to fall on rising, above average volume. Looks ready to test the March low (20.33) at least.
Volume: 567.4K Avg Volume: 517.545K
BUY POINT: $21.59 Volume=525K Target=$20.05 Stop=$22.18
POSITION: GMT RX - June $22.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gmt.html
Upside:
Play Date: 04/13/2004
FORM (Formfactor--$21.73; -0.38; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Moving laterally the past two weeks, holding over the 10 day MVA (21.48) after breaking higher to start the month. Showing solid 7 to 3 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume) in its 18 week base. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and volume is very low as it moves laterally. Holding up well, and just waiting for the stock to make the break higher to start the next move, and we want to see volume.
Volume: 209.528K Avg Volume: 449.227K
BUY POINT: $22.67 Volume=650K Target=$26 Stop=$21.08
POSITION: AFU GX - July $22.50c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/form.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/12/2004
ABMD (Abiomed--$9.67; -0.01; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing the strong breakout from its 5 month cup base. It is holding onto most of its gains as money flow continues to surge higher. Very solid 7 to 4 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows money flow moving into the stock during this base. Relative strength broke out on this move, a solid indication of the strength of the move, and it is ready to breakout again. Again, it may take another couple of days to finish the test, but with the strong money flow we want to be ready to move.
Volume: 49.127K Avg Volume: 77.045K
BUY POINT: $10.25 Volume=115K Target=$12.32 Stop=$9.53
POSITION: IBU IB - Sept. $10c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 04/06/2004
TMWD (Tumbleweed Communication--$7.93; -0.11; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmwd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice volume Monday even though TMWD could not hold all of the breakout. Monday as the market sold TMWD held steady on lower, below average volume. Very solid action, indicating the 17 week base is a good one. Excellent money flow continues to move higher ahead of the stock.
Volume: 289.801K Avg Volume: 358.636K
BUY POINT: $8.12 Volume=556K Target=$9.75 Stop=$7.55
POSITION: MYQ IU - Sept. $7.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tmwd.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 04/07 Test 50 506.25 -8.99 514 545 0 0 508
Buy Not Issued.
ABMD 04/12 Test BO 9.67 -0.01 10.25 12.32 49K 115K 9.53
Buy Not Hit.
ACR 03/30 Flat 5.27 -0.08 5.62 6.78 97K 290K 5.23
Buy Not Issued.
ACXM 03/17 Test 18 24.2 -0.18 21.29 25.55 804K 800K 22.42
Current.
ANSR 04/03 DB hdl 7.75 -0.06 8.29 10 242K 425K 7.66
Current.
APSG 04/12 Cup hdl 28.35 -0.93 29.38 33.85 93K 150K 27.55
Buy Not Issued.
ASKJ 03/18 BO 37.51 -1.99 31.44 37.95 2.6M 3.7M 36.72
Current.
AZR 04/04 Test BO 25.21 -0.35 25.56 29.55 297K 400K 24.75
Current.
BBOX 04/07 Cup hdl 56.65 -1.18 56.98 65 222K 354K 54.72
Buy Not Issued.
BEBE 03/13 Cup hdl 32.52 -1 31.88 36.55 174K 200K 32.72
Trailing Stop.
CBR 03/17 Cup hdl 10.75 -0.43 10.65 12.78 258K 750K 10.78
Current.
CERN 03/25 Test 50 46.55 -0.7 47.06 53.88 548K 986K 44.72
Current.
CHT 01/22 Cup hdl 18.03 +0.19 15.75 18.92 278K 1.1M 17.44
Current.
CHTT 02/14 Cup hdl 27.25 -0.45 22.25 26.48 160K 282K 26.72
Current.
CRXL 03/24 Cup hdl 9.03 -0.15 8.35 10.06 127K 350K 7.77
Buy Not Issued.
CYTC 03/17 Test 18 21.69 -1.02 21.84 26.22 2M 2.2M 21.88
Current.
CYTC 03/01 Cup hdl 21.69 -1.02 20.24 24 2M 1.7M 21.88
Current.
DRTE 04/12 Flat 17.05 -0.4 17.68 2121 146K 325K 16.58
Buy Not Issued.
EASY 04/05 Flat 1.9 -0.12 1.86 2.45 932K 557K 1.78
Current.
FSH 03/29 Flat 56.58 -1.47 54.52 62.75 906K 1.6M 56.58
Current.
GTI 03/20 A Wedge 14.9 -0.6 15.03 17.62 969K 1.8M 14.54
Current.
HMP 03/08 A Wedge 2.46 -0.14 2.16 2.84 160K 150K 2.18
Current.
LTD 03/22 Test 50 20.06 -0.48 21.16 25.15 3.6M 3.9M 20.22
Current.
MAMA 03/16 Test BO 14.14 -1.29 10.04 13.12 3.3M 6M 13.96
Current.
MIL 02/07 Test BO 52.7 -1.08 50.44 58 172K 500K 52.26
Current.
MU 04/09 Test BO 17 -0.19 17.64 21.15 8.8M 15M 16.88
Buy Not Issued.
MXT 03/22 Cup hdl 7.82 -0.03 7.77 9.32 952K 1.7M 7.75
Current.
NCOG 04/03 Dbl btm 23.76 -0.6 24.06 28.45 184K 250K 22.96
Buy Not Issued.
NIPNY 04/09 DB hdl 8.26 -0.3 8.94 10.75 192K 453K 8.31
Buy Not Hit.
NMSS 04/09 Cup hdl 7.58 -0.4 8 9.58 1M 592K 7.42
Entered today.
NSTK 03/20 Test 18 14.69 +1.19 14.66 17.38 635K 135K 13.63
Entered today.
NVDA 03/24 Test 50 25.63 -0.61 23.94 28.75 3.6M 6M 25.48
Current.
NVTL 03/27 Flat 24.45 -2.73 21.95 26.22 2.8M 1.1M 25.38
Current.
ODP 03/27 Cup hdl 18.7 -0.43 18.65 22.25 1.9M 2.4M 18.65
Current.
OO 04/12 Cup hdl 15.35 -0.56 16.11 13.38 216K 284K 15.38
Buy Not Issued.
PHMD 04/07 DB hdl 3.04 -0.12 3.02 3.82 463K 322K 2.79
Current.
PLXT 03/03 A Wedge 11.82 +0.13 11.26 13.42 221K 218K 10.58
Current.
QLTI 02/17 FlyPlat 27.83 -0.6 26.48 31 405K 2M 27.22
Current.
QSFT 04/03 Cup hdl 16.18 -0.24 16.92 20.32 503K 1.5M 15.74
Buy Not Hit.
R 03/30 Flat 37.93 -1.83 38.33 44.85 671K 600K 38.88
Current.
RECN 03/22 Rv H&S 43.54 -0.79 36.16 43.38 135K 225K 42.54
Current.
RHAT 04/05 Test BO 25 -0.06 24.88 29 4.9M 8.8M 23.14
Buy Not Issued.
RHAT 03/24 Flat 25 -0.06 20.66 24.85 4.9M 7.3M 22.98
Current.
RHI 03/31 DB hdl 24.76 -0.35 25.48 27.65 426K 1.1M 23.7
Buy Not Issued.
ROV 03/27 Flat 28.43 -1.1 28.12 33.65 428K 705K 28.66
Current.
SCUR 04/09 Cup hdl 16.28 -0.77 17.45 21 818K 1.1M 16.28
Buy Not Issued.
SGMS 03/01 Dbl btm 19.19 -1.3 18.85 22.62 2.4M 1.1M 19.98
Trailing Stop.
SKIL 01/03 Cup hdl 12.91 -0.19 9.32 11.24 479K 518K 12.52
Current.
SLTC 04/01 A Wedge 5.45 +0.02 5.72 6.95 31K 242K 5.32
Buy Not Issued.
STSI 03/13 Cup hdl 4.41 +0.14 4.46 5.44 365K 285K 4.22
SWIR 03/18 Test BO 42.98 -2.05 32.22 37.25 1.3M 1.3M 38.86
Current.
SWIR 03/06 BO 42.98 -2.05 31.88 36.85 1.3M 1.1M 38.86
Current.
SWKS 04/05 Rv H&S 11.64 -0.63 12.55 15.12 3.3M 5M 11.67
Buy Not Issued.
TASR 03/25 Cup hdl 95.3 -2.2 66.29 76.25 5.2M 6.8M 94.22
Current.
TELK 03/29 A Wedge 26.63 -1.43 28.82 33.12 609K 880K 27.64
Current.
TEO 02/23 Test 50 11 +0.01 10.61 12.72 126K 520K 10.62
Current.
TGA 04/09 Dbl btm 2.74 -0.17 3.06 3.85 340K 585K 2.84
Buy Not Hit.
TLCV 03/11 Test 18 11.97 -0.09 12.11 14.34 603K 1.2M 11.96
Current.
TMWD 04/06 Cup hdl 7.93 -0.11 8.22 9.85 290K 556K 7.64
Current.
TOM 02/28 Cup hdl 17.55 -0.68 16.84 20.12 1.3M 850K 17.54
Current.
TSYS 04/07 Cup hdl 7.46 -0.44 8.46 10.18 282K 570K 7.87
Buy Not Hit.
VOXX 02/21 A Wedge 19.58 -0.91 16.29 19.62 221K 160K 19.12
Current.
VRNT 03/15 Cup hdl 30.99 -2.5 27.88 33.45 418K 200K 29.22
Current.
WAT 03/20 Cup hdl 40.04 -1.11 40 46.12 610K 850K 39.88
Current.
WEBX 02/25 Test 18 31.1 -1.28 27.27 31.35 1.3M 1M 30.88
Current.
WIND 03/13 Test BO 11.98 -0.44 11.98 14.32 713K 850K 11.68
Current.
WSTM 03/08 Cup hdl 3.14 -0.05 2.78 3.65 510K 234K 2.78
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AZO 03/10 Put 81.7 -1.71 84 81.28 1.7M 1.1M 83.66
Current.
OII 04/05 Put 30.5 +0.06 29.75 27.72 242K 275K 30.95
Buy Not Hit.
TXT 03/15 Put 52.45 -0.98 51.7 48.65 634K 800K 53.36
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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