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yahoo stock, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 2
TEAM TRADES
BBY: A stock that has sold off the last few sessions as worries about the economic recovery mount as more companies cannot give solid guidance going forward. Volume was up today, but the stock also was starting up off of its low of 64.37, and that can mean a reversal day as it tested close to its 50 day MVA on the low. Indeed, it finished the day with a hammer doji, and that is a potentially good sign after some selling. At the time we did not know this was the case, but we liked the move up off of the lows and we sent out an alert that we were looking at this as an opportunity to pick up more shares. Well, when we were getting in the stock had rebounded nicely and then pulled back a bit to 64. Then it started to bounce again at that point; great, it had rallied, pulled back, and now made a higher low and was moving back up. We decided that was the time to get in at 64.15. Well, it peaked at 64.60 and the fell back to 63.20. We remained resolute, however, with the bounce, and sure enough, the stock started to move back up. In the last half hour it ran up to 64.60 before peeling back to close at 64.38 or so. Not bad, and the purpose was to get a decent entry point for a move back up to 70 or more.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
BEST PLAYS: From last night's report, FRED inched up but volume was lower; its ascending wedge remains intact. Not crazy about LUV's action; it may find support at its 50 day MVA. IXX tried for a breakout today (covered on the 7-21 report) and is showing huge volume on the move; please see the earlier report for buy point and other details if it can run back up from here. BPFH is testing support in its ascending wedge as volume drops even lower (7-19), showing a tight doji. Like that.
Best Plays:
1) RI: A nice pattern.
2) SIB: Solid move up.
3) BBBY: Looking for a bounce from the 50 day MVA.
Updated:
Some stocks that we like have seen some profit-taking in the last couple of days; we are looking at them for bounces from support in order to gain another entry point. IVX is an example (as is BBBY in the Up & Comers Portfolio):
IVX (Ivax--$37.25; -0.65; optionable (IVX): Generic Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivx.html
STATUS: IVX broke out of the 11-month+ cup with handle base last week, but sold back Monday and Tuesday, starting on news of a rival getting approved to enter its market. The selling eased off today while volume continued to drop (though remained high at 1.9 million; avg. 1.38 million). The 50 day MVA is at the 36 range, and we are looking for a bounce back up from there in order to gain another entry point. IVX, on the breakout high of 41.87, is near the highs at the start of the base (42.30), and we think the stock is going to move over that price once it gains its feet after this bout of selling. Target: 47.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a strong move back over today's high of 39.25, after catching support in the 36 range (50 day MVA, 35.70); volume in the range of 2 million. Stop: 36.15.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $40 calls to buy (IVX IH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ivx.html
A formerly covered stock that has formed a nice pattern:
RI (Ruby Tuesday--$19.04; +0.04; optionable (RI): Leisure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ri.html
STATUS: RI has had a good run up the right side of its 16-week base, and is now forming a handle, a 3-day lateral movement on below average volume. The stock finally broke down and tested support at the 18 day MVA, on today's low of 18.50, and the move was on stronger volume of 194,800 (avg. 232,409). Showing another doji on the bounce back up, we will look for a breakout over the high of 19.29. It is possible that RI will test the 10 day MVA (18.46) a bit more, but if it holds support at 19 (hit 5 times in the base) the breakout move can be from here. Shows excellent money flow and good buying. Initial target: 23 to 24.
BUY POINT: 19.42, on volume of 233,000 or better. Stop: 17.87 (50 day MVA, 17.50). A buy on breakout up to 20.39.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $17.50 calls to buy (RI JW).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sib.html
Updated: Financials continue to look good:
SIB (Staten Island--$28.93; +0.63; optionable (SIB): Regional Banks (Midwest)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sib.html
STATUS: A steady uptrender. SIB broke from an ascending wedge back in early July but volume was insufficient for a true breakout. The stock didn't get strong volume coupled with a good move up until July 17, breaking to a new closing high (29.01), but then pulled back in another test of the 18 day MVA (28.42). SIB gapped up on a bounce from there Tuesday, moving up to resistance (29) on great volume of 125,100 (avg. 62,227, so we are looking for a breakout over the high of 29.25 (July high) on the momentum. SIB trended up nicely as of early January (breaking out from another wedge), then formed the most recent ascending wedge beginning early May. Target: 38 (long-term). Huge money flow and relative strength breaking out.
BUY POINT: 29.38, on continued strong volume (125,000+). Stop: 27.03
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sib.html
Put for a falling market: We are looking at NVDA, which is in a downtrend to catch what may be another test lower after testing its 200 day MVA. A good company, we feel it will recover ultimately, but for now, there may be an opportunity here for playing it down before it finally gets its recovery legs.
NVDA (Nvidia--$72.39; +4.59; optionable (RVU): Semiconductor http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: This leading stock is in the midst of a major correction, and is currently moving down to support (200 day MVA, 65.17). NVDA was hit with some solid selling Monday, not quite making it down to the 200 day, and got a "relief" bounce Tuesday, which was on still strong though decreased volume (5.68 million; average 4.5 million). NVDA has been in a steady downtrend since the start of this month (in a struggling sector), and while it may make it back up to the 10 day MVA (75.91) on the bounce, we will look for it to fail there and drop back for a potential put play. We are targeting the 200 day MVA at 65. Take a little from the downside before we play the double bottom off of the 200 day MVA that we think will form.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move down from 75 on strong, selling volume.
POSITION: September $95 puts to buy (RVU IS).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: We have revamped this portfolio, dropping for now CPN, SGR, NATI and BRKS. Those stocks have, for the most part, dropped off and need to form bases or do some more work in ones already existing. To the New Leader section we are adding DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, and BMET. In the Previous Leader section, VRSN, VRTS, ADBE and SEBL are retained. Ones dropped include AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS and SCMR. All of these stocks will be kept on watch in context with improvement in their sectors and the market.
New Leaders: ESRX, LLL, ACS, NVDA, DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, BMET.
Previous Leaders in which we are still interested: ADBE, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
No reports on stocks in this portfolio tonight.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have revamped the Up & Comers portfolio, and are dropping EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST for now, adding BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG and AEOS.
LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI, THQI, BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG, AEOS.
AEOS pulled back to the 10 day MVA, taking a dip down from the lateral movement of the handle in its cup base. Volume was higher, so we may get a test of the 18 day MVA (38.81) in the handle. RCII made it down to the 50 day MVA on steadily declining volume, so we will look for a move back up from there and back over 50 for looking at positions.
BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond--$31.10; +0.01; optionable (BHQ): Home Furnishings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Another stock that has had a good run (to 33.95 in this case), but has pulled back. BBBY started running up from the floor of a flat base, then broke out of it mid-month, then pulled off the high as volume's steadily decreased (that was down to 2.58 million Tuesday; avg. 3.2 million). We got a closing price and a tight doji just under the 18 day MVA (31.22); thus, BBBY closed under resistance, and while the doji signals a possible move back up, we are looking for another test of the 50 day MVA again, just like it did in June and earlier this month (3 times). We look for another run back up after it does. Initial target: 40
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A strong move over 32, on average or higher volume. Stop: 29.44 (under the 50 day). We may just play this up to 34 for a short term play. Breakout: 34, on volume in the range of 4 million. Stop: 31.28 (just above the 18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or November $30 calls to buy (BHQ KF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bbby.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
We have been tracking BRCM in an ascending wedge, but today on stronger, average volume the stock broke below the 50 day MVA and the up trendline that was supporting the pattern. It may bounce back up and all is not lost, but not a play right here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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