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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: ABMD; AFFX; ASKJ; MIL; NMSS; PHMD; QLTI; TASR; KMRT
Best Plays:
1) ALAN: Broke out, tested, and now jumping back up.
2) ATRX: Making a strong breakout.
3) EXEL: Ditto.
4) RECN: Still looks ready.
5) SIMG: Nice test.
6) SKIL: Starting the bounce.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/19/2004
ALAN (Alanco Technologies--$1.72; +0.28; no options): ITS solution provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alan.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ALAN exploded out of a 5 month flat base 7 sessions back, roaring to life on strong volume and rallying to 2.34 on the high. It has slid back to the 10 day EMA (1.51) to test the breakout on lower though still above average volume. Monday it jumped off the 10 day EMA on rising, above average volume. Strong money flow is still leading higher as ALAN looks ready to continue the breakout move. The first test of the breakout is one of our favorite entry points, and this test looks successful.
Volume: 3.933M Avg Volume: 807.636K
BUY POINT: $1.82 Volume=2M Target=$2.38 Stop=$1.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alan.html
Play Date: 04/19/2004
ATRX (Atrix Labs--$31.00; +1.60; optionable): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atrx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ATRX is surging up toward the breakout from its 7.5 month base, rallying Monday on strong, above average volume. Solid 9 to 6 volume in the base (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume) setting the foundation for the breakout and showing us that money moved into the stock even as it sold back and regrouped. Volume has surged the past two weeks as buyers have jumped back in. Last week it pulled back toward the 10 day EMA (28.93) and Monday it leaped higher. It is ready to continue the move.
Volume: 576.65K Avg Volume: 194.59K
BUY POINT: $31.76 Volume=300K Target=$38 Stop=$29.54
POSITION: OQF HF - Aug. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atrx.html
Play Date: 04/19/2004
EXEL (Exelis--$9.67; +0.45; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exel.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. You can view this as a 12 month base or a 7 week base, but both are solid. EXEL is making the breakout move on strong volume, surging Monday and clearing the recent highs. Accumulation in the shorter base is a solid 2 to 0 (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing us that money was still moving into the stock even as it rested and set up this next move. It held over the 50 day MA during the base, a sign of solid support (50 day at 8.52). Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout accompanying the move, the latter being another indication that the move is solid. Looking to pick up positions on a further run from here.
Volume: 665.401K Avg Volume: 368.09K
BUY POINT: $9.75 Volume=552K Target=$11.75 Stop=$9.05
POSITION: XQT HB - Aug. $10c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/exel.html
Play Date: 04/19/2004
WGRD (Watchguard Technologies--$8.50; +0.55; no options): Internet security solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgrd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WGRD is making a high volume breakout from a 16 month base sporting strong 19 to 6 accumulation (19 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume). A long pattern, but a solid foundation for the breakout and run higher. Looking for some more volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 1.195M Avg Volume: 435.727K
BUY POINT: $8.74 Volume=654K Target=$10.55 Stop=$8.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wgrd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/17/2004
ACXM (Acxicom--$24.12; +0.42; optionable): Information technology software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acxm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Starting that bounce off the 10 day EMA (23.53), but could not garner much volume Monday as it did. A great performer that needed a rest. It has taken it and now looks ready to resume the breakout move.
Volume: 552.95K Avg Volume: 873.272K
BUY POINT: New: $24.25 (orig. $21.29) Volume=800K Target=New positions: $28.55 (orig. positions $25.55) Stop=$23.22
POSITION: UQA HX - Aug. $22.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acxm.html
Play Date: 04/17/2004
ANDW (Andrew Corp.--$20.46; +0.26; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/andw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Edged higher Monday but volume backed off to below average levels. Exploded out of an 11 week flat base to start the month and has moved laterally during the recent selling, holding onto its gains as the market sold off. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is outstanding, relative strength is ready to breakout again. Just needs more trade.
Volume: 2.349M Avg Volume: 2.722M
BUY POINT: $20.48 Volume=4M Target=$24.58 Stop=$19.05
POSITION: AQN JD - Oct. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/andw.html
Play Date: 04/07/2004
BBOX (Black Box--$55.96; +0.3; optionable): PC hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbox.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still hanging in there well though a bit wild Monday. BBOX reached down below the 18 day EMA (55.25) once more and then rebounded on rising though still below average volume. It could not get any volume as it moved out of the 11 week cup, but now that it has tested the move and held, it may be ready to make a serious move. Looking for that volume to come back in as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 147.672K Avg Volume: 230K
BUY POINT: $56.98 Volume=354K Target=$65 Stop=$54.72
POSITION: QBX IK - Sept. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bbox.html
Play Date: 04/17/2004
ERICY (LM Ericsson Telephone--$30.56; +0.95; optionable): Telecom equipment (phones)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ericy.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher Monday but could not pull in the volume. Indeed, volume backed off on the gain, not the action you want to see. Stil, a very nice 8 week base with excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. Money flow remains solid and relative strength is ready for the breakout.
Volume: 2.725M Avg Volume: 4.063M
BUY POINT: $30.78 Volume=6.5M Target=$35.42 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: RQC GF - July $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ericy.html
Play Date: 04/09/2004
NMSS (Natural Microsystems--$7.87; +0.43; no options): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmss.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume jumped again Monday as NMSS continued its move off the 50 day MA (7.02). After a rocky patch last week, it has held, taken a breather, and is now making its move.
Volume: 662.801K Avg Volume: 395.772K
BUY POINT: New: $8.12 Volume=592K Target=$9.58 Stop=$7.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nmss.html
Play Date: 03/22/2004
RECN (RSCS Connection--$42.50; -0.04; no options): International professional services (e.g., accounting, IT, human resources, finance)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. Still holding over the 18 day EMA (41.91) on below average volume, reaching down below that support Monday, but rallying right back for a modest loss. Again, RECN exploded out of a 10 week flat base in late March on tremendous volume and is now testing that move. Money flow is still leading ahead of price, so we are being patient and waiting for the volume to come back in.
Volume: 80.708K Avg Volume: 165.636K
BUY POINT: New: 43.55 (orig. $36.16) Volume=225K Target=New positions: $50 (orig. $43.38) Stop=$41.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/recn.html
Play Date: 04/05/2004
RHAT (Red Hat--$24.13; +0.94; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Moving off the 18 day EMA (23.18) but not getting any volume yet. RHAT broke out from a 10 week cup base in late March and rallied to 25.58. In the market selling it has come back to the 18 day, taking a breather. Money flow remains excellent. Just waiting for volume to come in.
Volume: 2.365M Avg Volume: 5.136M
BUY POINT: New: 24.38 (orig. $24.12) Volume=8.8M Target=$29 Stop=$22.88
POSITION: RCV IE - Sept. $25c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhat.html
Play Date: 04/17/2004
SIMG (Silicon Image--$13.33; +0.47; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Up off the 10 day EMA (12.84) but volume did not rally with the stock. A great test of the breakout form a 10 week base in early April and rallied to 14. It looks ready to continue the breakout move, but we need to see volume bump up some. Excellent money flow still leading higher, and we are looking for it to follow that money flow.
Volume: 768.531K Avg Volume: 905.272K
BUY POINT: New: 13.45 (orig. $13.12) Volume=1.4M Target=$15.78 Stop=$12.32
POSITION: QSI IV - Sept. $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/simg.html
Play Date: 01/03/2004
SKIL (Skillsoft--$12.74; +0.14; optionable): Multimedia graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/skil.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Moving up off the 18 day EMA (12.45) on rising though still well below average volume. This stock is testing its breakout as well, holding the 18 day and starting higher. It just needs some more trade to go with the strong money flow that is leading higher.
Volume: 541.447K Avg Volume: 743.227K
BUY POINT: New: $12.88 (orig. $9.32) Volume=518K Target=New: $15.48 (orig. positions $11.24) Stop=$12.38
POSITION: QAG HV - Aug. $12.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/skil.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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