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yahoo stock, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
BEST PLAYS: From last night's report: SIB broke to a new high, RI still looks great in its cup with handle, and BBBY gave us what we wanted (see U&C portfolio below). IVX is hanging in there at the 18 day MVA. We still like BPFH in its ascending wedge; it is really shaking out the stockholders and showing very low volume (July 17 report for details). FRED, another ascending wedge pattern, is holding support and got a shot of volume today (7-23), as did LUV, the airline stock that is in a cup with handle. It broke back over resistance on strong volume, and looks headed for a breakout (7-23). TGH showed a doji on lower volume in its handle (7-30), and IFIN did the same. Buy points and other info in those reports are current.
Best Plays: We think they are all best plays tonight.
1) FDO: Breaking out and still a buy.
2) HDI: Get you motor running.
3) CPWR: Ready for a breakout.
4) ANF: Moving up in a handle.
5) LOW: A solid move up on good volume.
Updated:
Breakout:
FDO (Family Dollar--$29.82; +1.34; optionable (FDO): Discount stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdo.html
STATUS: We covered FDO back in May, when the stock was testing the breakout from a cup base. The stock failed to take out the breakout high on that test, and eventually dropped back to test 25 at the end of June, which was below the 50 day MVA. As of that test, however, FDO ran up to complete the right side of the new v-bottomed base, pulling back in handle the last 4 days, and making a breakout today (Wednesday) on huge volume (1.4 million; avg. 597,000). Luckily it remains a buy on this move, then we can look for a test of the breakout for another try at picking up later gains. FDO shows great money flow and relative strength breaking out. Target: 34-35.
BUY POINT: 30.13, on continued strong volume. Stop: 27.72. Remains a buy on the breakout up to 31.01 (buy point in the handle was 29.53).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $25 calls to buy (FDO JE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fdo.html
Other updated stocks:
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$51.90; +1.72; optionable (HDI): Recreational vehicles
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: After the strong breakout earlier this month (from a double bottom with handle base), HDI pulled back from the breakout high of 54.02 in a test of the strong move. Wednesday volume shot from below average levels to well above (3.9 million; avg. 1.4 million), and the stock used the 18 day MVA at 50 for a nice ride up on the volume strength. We are looking for a continued move up on the momentum, for a run over the recent high. HDI shows huge money flow and strong buying, and relative strength is breaking out ahead of price. Target: 60
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 52.13, on continued strong volume. Stop: 47.96 (just below the 50 day MVA, 48.16). Breakout: 54.15, on continued strong volume (4 million or better). Stop: 49.82.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $45 or $50 calls to buy (HDI KI or KJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hdi.html
CPWR (Compuware--$13.39; +0.32; optionable (CWQ): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpwr.html
STATUS: Covered on the July 3 report, when it was pulling back in the handle to a picture-perfect cup base of 5 months. The handle wasn't so perfect, though, and price dropped back to test an up trendline (April, June and July lows), but recently moved back over the short term MVAs where CPWR is now in a little ascending wedge pattern. Up from support (10 day MVA, 13.14) on strong volume Wednesday, we are looking for a breakout from the short pattern, and over the June (handle) high of 14. The stock shows really strong money flow. Target: 16-17.
BUY POINT: Breakout from the cup with handle: 14, on volume of 5.7 million or better (5.2 million Wednesday; avg. 3.8 million). Stop: 12.88.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $10 calls to buy (CWQ KB).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cpwr.html
Put for a falling market: We are watching NVDA, which is in a downtrend to catch what may be another test lower after testing its 200 day MVA. A good company, we feel it will recover ultimately, but for now, there may be an opportunity here for playing it down before it finally gets its recovery legs. The stock dropped back just a bit on lower volume after testing a low of 69.28. The play stands; we will see if the stock makes a lower test.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: We have revamped this portfolio, dropping for now CPN, SGR, NATI and BRKS. Those stocks have, for the most part, dropped off and need to form bases or do some more work in ones already existing. To the New Leader section we are adding DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, and BMET. In the Previous Leader section, VRSN, VRTS, ADBE and SEBL are retained. Ones dropped include AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS and SCMR. All of these stocks will be kept on watch in context with improvement in their sectors and the market.
New Leaders: ESRX, LLL, ACS, NVDA, DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, BMET.
Previous Leaders in which we are still interested: ADBE, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
BMET looked good today, moving up from support on strong volume. Looks ready to take out the June high. PSFT made a good move up on its earnings that were out yesterday evening, but closed just under its 200 day. We like the move up but want to see it back over 45 before we'll look at taking positions.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have revamped the Up & Comers portfolio, and are dropping EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST for now, adding BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG and AEOS.
LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI, THQI, BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG, AEOS.
AEOS was in Tuesday's report. Tested its 50 day MVA intraday and closed on a tight doji. Watching for the breakout.
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$41.40; +1.30; optionable (ANF): Retail: Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: ANF is in a very long base, dating back from mid-1999. One could venture to say that it is currently in the handle to that base, and that portion of the pattern began back in May, when the stock reached a high on a breakout (when the company reported a 23% increase in sales from the previous year) at 47.50. The stock has pulled back since then, in fits and starts, with volume below average overall with some exceptions. Most recently ANF has tested the 50 day MVA (40 level), hanging at or near that support for the last two weeks and Wednesday making a move back over the short term MVAs. Volume was strong on this move (2.6 million; avg. 1.25 million), and we are looking for a continued rise on the momentum. ANF shows excellent money flow. Target on a breakout: 55-57.
BUY POINT: 47.63, on volume in the range of 1.9 million or better (minimum breakout volume). Stop: 43.82. Aggressive: 41.63, on continued strong volume. Stop: 38.30.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or November $37.50 calls to buy (ANF KU). Breakout: Stock and/or November $40 or $45 calls to buy (ANF KH or KI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/anf.html
LOW (Lowe's Companies--$38.26; +1.01; optionable (LOW): Retail: Home Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: LOW reached a June high of 39.86, pulled back over the next two weeks to test the 34 level, then ran back up but didn't take out the former high, forming a short v-bottomed base. It pulled back again, this time testing higher at the 18 day MVA, and that is where it opened Wednesday (at 37.30) and moved up on a good dose of volume (4.6 million; avg. 3.1 million). We are looking for a continued move up and break over the recent, and then the June, highs. LOW shows super money flow, and relative strength is out ahead of price, a bullish sign. Target: 47.
BUY POINT: 39.75, on volume in the range of 6 million or better. Stop: 36.57 (18 day MVA, 37.16). A buy on breakout up to 41.74.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $35 calls to buy (LOW JG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/low.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
We have been tracking BRCM in an ascending wedge, but on stronger, average volume Tuesday the stock broke below the 50 day MVA and the up trendline that was supporting the pattern. Wednesday it is holding for a nickel gain from yesterday's close, on lower volume. It may bounce back up and all is not lost, but not a play right here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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