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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: HEB; WAT
Best Plays: Still many solid plays even with the recent market selling.
1) CECO: Nice breakout test.
2) DYAX: Volume is surging as it readies for the breakout.
3) AMT: Excellent breakout test.
4) CDIS: Testing the strong Tuesday move.
5) DUSA: Beautiful handle forming.
6) MTX: Giving us the test we were looking for.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/28/2004
CECO (Career Education--$64.32; -1.27; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After great results and a nice breakout, CECO has made an orderly, low volume pullback to fully test the breakout, tapping the 18 day EMA (62.98) on the Wednesday low, holding that level and bouncing to cut its losses on the close. Super money flow from a very strong stock with super earnings. Looking for it to rebound on strong volume through the 10 day EMA (65.17).
Volume: 2.134M Avg Volume: 2.015M
BUY POINT: $65.25 Volume=3M Target=$75 Stop=$62.78
POSITION: CUY GM - July $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceco.html
Play Date: 04/28/2004
DYAX (Dyax--$14.00; -0.34; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dyax.html
STATUS: Cup. Solid breakout in December, then rallied up to 14 through February. It needed a breather, and this 8 week base is providing that as it came back and held the 50 day EMA (12.01) as it formed the base. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows money is still moving into the stock even as it bases. Volume has surged the past week as it moved up the right side of the base. It may form a handle here at 14ish, but volume was surging Wednesday as the stock tried a breakout. Strong money flow is leading and relative strength is solid. We are ready for the move.
Volume: 459.854K Avg Volume: 247.181K
BUY POINT: $14.64 Volume=371K Target=$17.55 Stop=$13.62
POSITION: DQA HC - Aug. $15c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dyax.html
Play Date: 04/28/2004
JBX (Jack in the Box--$27.27; -0.16; optionable): Fast food chain
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Those bacon bacon double cheeseburgers are really selling. JBX exploded from a shallow base to start the month on tremendous volume as it reported stellar results. It has spent the last three weeks fading to test that breakout, holding the 18 day EMA (27.24) on very low, below average volume. Money flow remains exceptional, holding well above the high as the stock holds the 18 day, showing a tight doji Wednesday. Just letting it get through the pullback and ready to move in on a strong volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 179.8K Avg Volume: 344.5K
BUY POINT: $28.32 Volume=500K Target=$33.98 Stop=$27.08
POSITION: JBX IE - Sept. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbx.html
Play Date: 04/28/2004
POTP (Point Therapeutics--$6.50; -0.08; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/potp.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. A new issue in early 2000, POTP is trying to break to a new high. It has formed something of a cup with handle over the 50 day EMA (5.95) the past 7 weeks. It came back to test the 50 day EMA this week and jumped off that level on strong trade. Accumulation is an excellent 4 to 1 and money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Looks ready to hit that new high. Average volume is lighter than usual, but a solid stock and we like these new issues moving to new highs.
Volume: 52.02K Avg Volume: 95K
BUY POINT: $6.88 Volume=95K Target=$8.25 Stop=$6.33
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/potp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/17/2004
ACXM (Acxicom--$23.78; -0.23; optionable): Information technology software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acxm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume continues well below average as AXCM moves laterally over the 10 day EMA (23.80) in a very tight range that tests the breakout that started in late March. It is being very stingy, holding tight to its gains. You like to see that after a breakout; a sign of strength. Money flow and relative strength holding up very well. Just waiting for the next move on above average volume.
Volume: 563.726K Avg Volume: 844.636K
BUY POINT: New: $24.35 (orig. $21.29) Volume=800K Target=New positions: $28.55 (orig. positions $25.55) Stop=$23.22
POSITION: UQA HX - Aug. $22.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acxm.html
Play Date: 04/27/2004
AMT (American Tower--$12.97; -0.18; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji on very low volume Wednesday as AMT ignored the market selling and continued its very orderly breakout test. AMT shot out of a 14 week cup base last week and rallied to 13.91 on the high. It has come back to test the breakout, holding the 10 day EMA (13.03). Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Again, first tests of breakouts are one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 1.5M Avg Volume: 2.422M
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=4M Target=$16 Stop=$12.62
POSITION: AMT JV - Oct. $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amt.html
Play Date: 04/19/2004
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$40.90; -2.03; optionable): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Sure ASKJ is pulling back in the selling the past two days, but volume was below average both sessions as it comes back toward the 10 day EMA (40.33). It surged last week and Monday on very strong trade; thus the light volume test is not eroding the strength. Indeed, we are looking for it to hold at the 10 day where there is also support at 40. Then a rebound offers a new buy point.
Volume: 2.726M Avg Volume: 3.379M
BUY POINT: New: Test 40, then 41.45 on the rebound (orig. $39) Volume=3.7M Target=$44.65 Stop=$37.32
POSITION: AUK IH - July $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/askj.html
Play Date: 04/24/2004
CDIS (Cal Dive--$27.71; -0.59; optionable): Oil and gas equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CDIS jumped out of a short, 7 week base Tuesday on strong trade, but in the market selling Wednesday it gave a portion of the move back. Lower volume on the pullback, so there was no dumping. Still looks solid, and we are looking for CDIS to hold and start the move back up. That is when we move in. Accumulation is solid at 3 to 0 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume), showing us that money moved into the stock even as it based. Money flow is excellent, rallying higher ahead of the stock price. Again, an 'A' rated stock for earnings, sales, and technical position.
Volume: 605.883K Avg Volume: 290.181K
BUY POINT: $28.05 Volume=475K Target=$33.66 Stop=$26.35
POSITION: KPQ IE - Sept. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cdis.html
Play Date: 04/20/2004
DUSA (Dusa Pharma--$12.92; +0.05; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dusa.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very, very nice handle forming as DUSA drifts back toward the 10 day EMA (12.39) on lower and lower below average volume. A nice volume surge up last week to form the right side of the 8 week base, and the low volume pullback from there is just perfect action. Looking for volume to surge back up as it breaks through the buy point for new positions. Tremendous money flow surging higher as the stock pulls back.
Volume: 144.985K Avg Volume: 317.545K
BUY POINT: $12.29 Volume=400K Target=$14.78 Stop=$11.88
POSITION: FDU GV - July $12.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dusa.html
Play Date: 04/21/2004
GENE (Oscient Pharma--$6.44; -0.32; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gene.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Has been pulling back laterally to form a handle to its 11 week base. Volume has been lower as it makes the test back though the price fell a bit more than we would like Wednesday. It managed to hold the 10 day EMA (6.34) on the low and rebounded some to cut losses. Excellent money flow rising even as the stock falls back. Waiting for a strong volume surge to send it past the next buy point to break it out of the base.
Volume: 599.741K Avg Volume: 814.909K
BUY POINT: New: $6.94 (orig. $6.62) Volume=1.3M Target=$8.25 Stop=$6.16
POSITION: GUA IA - Sept. $5c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gene.html
Play Date: 04/26/2004
MTX (Minerals Technologies--$60.52; -0.48; optionable): Mineral based products for construction, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent volume breakout Monday and Tuesday as MTX surged out of its 4 month cup with handle base sporting solid 7 to 4 accumulation (money kept moving in even as it based). We expected we would get a pullback to test the move, and Wednesday MTX eased back on much lower, average volume. It tapped 60.20 on the low and bounced; it may try 60 once more, but we want to be ready for it in the event it starts back up from here on stronger trade. It took a slight hit on the China news, but it held up remarkably well. Excellent money flow.
Volume: 148.2K Avg Volume: 133.909K
BUY POINT: $60.92 Volume=190K Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.94
POSITION: MTX JL - Oct. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtx.html
Play Date: 04/20/2004
TSO (Tesoro Petroleum--$21.45; +0.07; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tso.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume was up again Wednesday though still came in below average. The stock went nowhere, showing a tight doji once again. It looks as if pressure is building for a breakout, but it just has not broken loose yet. Being patient and waiting for that breakaway move. Right sector, just need to see it follow that money flow.
Volume: 858.7K Avg Volume: 895.681K
BUY POINT: New: $21.78 (orig. $21.35) Volume=1.1M Target=$25.62 Stop=$20.18
POSITION: TSO HD - Aug. $20c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tso.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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