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us stock market, stock research
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: ASKJ; CDIS; CECO; DYAX; SKIL; UTHR
Best Plays: Still many solid plays even with the recent market selling.
1) MDT: Nice base has formed in a solid stock.
2) NR: Nice pattern in this oil and gas stock.
3) PTEK: Another good breakout test.
4) AMT: Starting back up after the test.
5) JBX: Volume is starting to jump as JBX tests the 50 day EMA.
6) PLXT: Nice breakout test.
7) PRGO: Volume is surging as it makes the test.
8) UAG: Still a nice fade forming the handle.
9) UTHR: Volume is jumping higher as it moves to the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside: Still not loading up to the downside plays, but the relief bounce is starting so we are looking at some more.
Play Date: 05/03/2004
ENR (Energrizer Holdings--$43.77; +0.47; optionable): Batteries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/enr.html
STATUS: Put. Broke through the 50 day EMA (45.03) last week and has spent the past three sessions rallying back up to test the breakdown, but volume has backed down lower and lower as it bounces. That is a typical low volume bounce, and we are looking for it to fail at the 50 day and then roll back over on some rising trade.
Volume: 475.8K Avg Volume: 358.136K
BUY POINT: $44.48 Volume=500K Target=$42 Stop=$45.25
POSITION: ENR RI - June $45p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/enr.html
Upside:
Play Date: 05/03/2004
KOSN (Kosan Biosciences--$14.33; +0.51; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kosn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has started to really work higher as KOSN gets ready to breakout from its 7 week base sporting strong 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), indicating that money has continued to move into the stock even as moves through this base. Surging money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. KOSN was rallying when the rest of the market was spiraling downward. Excellent volume Monday as it jumped up off the 18 day EMA (13.49) that marked the bottom of the handle.
Volume: 327.597K Avg Volume: 102.863K
BUY POINT: $14.82 Volume=154K Target=$17.72 Stop=$13.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kosn.html
Play Date: 05/03/2004
LEXG (Lexicon Genetics--$7.25; +0.16; no options): Biopharma research for disease control
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lexg.html
STATUS: Cup. LEXG is just about to finish its 14 week cup base sporting strong 4 to 1 accumulation. The base formed over the 200 day SMA (6.06), a sign of solid support for the stock. Volume jumped Monday as LEXG jumped off the 18 day EMA (6.91) after testing back to that level during the selling last week. A mild pullback that set up a better move. Money flow is well ahead of price and moving higher. Looking for LEXG to continue higher and follow that money flow.
Volume: 588.349K Avg Volume: 245.863K
BUY POINT: $7.62 Volume=369K Target=$9.15 Stop=$7.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lexg.html
Play Date: 05/03/2004
MDT (Medtronic--$51.25; +0.79; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up to average Monday as MDT approached the breakout from the handle of its 12 week base. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern has set the stage for the breakout as big money used the pullback to quietly enter the stock. Starting toward the breakout, and want to see volume continue to run higher as it moves through the buy point, showing us that the big money continues to move in.
Volume: 4.531M Avg Volume: 5.013M
BUY POINT: $51.78 Volume=7.5M Target=$59 Stop=$49.92
POSITION: MDT HJ - Aug. $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdt.html
Play Date: 05/03/2004
PTEK (PTEK Holdings--$10.55; +0.38; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptek.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. PTEK is testing the breakout from its 14 week base. PTEK broke out 7 sessions back on solid volume, but got caught in the selling last week. It did not die, just eased back to tap toward the 50 day EMA (9.86) and then bounced on stronger volume Monday. Accumulation in the base is a solid 5 to 3. Money flow is out ahead of stock price, and relative strength is ready for another breakout. That relative strength is an indication a breakout is strong and can last. Looking for PTEK to continue its turn back up from here on even better volume.
Volume: 1.078M Avg Volume: 747.545K
BUY POINT: $10.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$13.05 Stop=$10.22
POSITION: QTE HB - Aug. $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ptek.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/12/2004
ABMD (Abiomed--$11.82; +0.39; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Fell hard last Thursday but managed to hold the 18 day EMA (11.47). Volume backed off the past two sessions as ABMD takes a breather from the strong breakout and surge that we rode during April. Money flow remains strong as does relative strength. A good first test of the breakout and run, now we just want to see money run back in as it starts back up and moves through the 10 day EMA (12.03).
Volume: 72.988K Avg Volume: 113.727K
BUY POINT: New: $12.08 (orig. $10.88) Volume=115K Target=New positions: 15 (orig. $13) Stop=$11.41
POSITION: IBU IB - Sept. $10c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 04/27/2004
AMT (American Tower--$13.09; +0.64; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AMT held the breakout at 12.50 on the Friday close. AMT formed a very nice, low volume pullback during the strong market selling last week. It bounced Monday on rising though still below average volume. Nice pattern still, and looking for more volume to move in.
Volume: 2.026M Avg Volume: 2.322M
BUY POINT: $13.12 Volume=4M Target=$16 Stop=$12.44
POSITION: AMT JV - Oct. $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amt.html
Play Date: 04/19/2004
ATRX (Atrix Labs--$31.34; +1.18; optionable): Drug delivery systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atrx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Held the 18 day EMA (30.32) and bounced Monday, but did not show any volume increase as volume faded to below average. Not the strength we were looking for, but still in good shape, and if volume comes in it is ready for the buy.
Volume: 162.054K Avg Volume: 196.318K
BUY POINT: $32 Volume=300K Target=$38.32 Stop=$30.05
POSITION: OQF HF - Aug. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atrx.html
Play Date: 04/28/2004
JBX (Jack in the Box--$27.25; +0.17; optionable): Fast food chain
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still tapping at the 50 day EMA (26.15) on the intraday low and then rebounding on stronger, average volume. JBX is ready to make the move after filling the gap from the big breakout to start April. Money flow, already strong and ahead of price, is turning up even sharper. Looks ready to make the rebound and continue the breakout.
Volume: 382.2K Avg Volume: 346.727K
BUY POINT: $28.32 Volume=500K Target=$33.98 Stop=$27.08
POSITION: JBX IE - Sept. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbx.html
Play Date: 04/21/2004
MIPS (Mips Technologies--$6.51; -0.12; no options): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mips.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice handle action, with MIPS showing a hammer doji over the 18 day EMA (6.42) as it forms a handle to its 15 week base. Excellent strength in this chip stock as most of the chips are burning. It has a lot going for it, and we are just being patient and waiting for the breakout to come.
Volume: 314.682K Avg Volume: 248.454K
BUY POINT: New: 6.96 (orig. $6.82) Volume=339K Target=$8.22 Stop=$6.34
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mips.html
Play Date: 03/03/2004
PLXT (PLX Technology--$13.12; +0.12; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plxt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another chip stock that is outperforming the market. PLXT is coming back to test the 18 day EMA (12.74), selling back on lighter volume the past week after the strong volume breakout two weeks back. Excellent money flow and relative strength as this chip stock sets up for the next break higher.
Volume: 371.561K Avg Volume: 233.59K
BUY POINT: New: $13.68 (orig. $11.26) Volume=218K Target=New positions: $16 (orig. $13.42) Stop=$13.62
POSITION: PIU GB - July $10c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plxt.html
Play Date: 05/01/2004
PRGO (Perrigo--$21.76; +0.29; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prgo.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice test of the strong breakout move a week back, holding over the 18 day EMA (21.10). Volume jumped Monday as PRGO edged higher. Looks ready to make the next move as money flow continues to rise ahead of the stock and relative strength still holding against the rest of the market.
Volume: 830.921K Avg Volume: 473.09K
BUY POINT: $22.06 Volume=712K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.88
POSITION: IQH HD - Aug. $20c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prgo.html
Play Date: 03/31/2004
RHI (Robert Half Intl.--$27.28; +0.01; optionable): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice test of the big gap higher 7 sessions back, showing a very tight doji at the 10 day EMA (27.24), with volume rising on Monday. Outstanding money flow and relative strength is excellent. Nice breakout test, and now ready to move higher after this test.
Volume: 1.187M Avg Volume: 912.59K
BUY POINT: New: $28.22 (orig. $25.18) Volume=1.1M Target=$28.85 Stop=$27.88
POSITION: RHI IE - Sept. $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhi.html
Play Date: 05/01/2004
SLXP (Salix Pharmaceuticals--$31.1; +0.1; optionable): Drug related products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slxp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding the 18 day EMA (30.70) on the breakout test after SLXP broke from an 8 week pattern in late March. It has formed the current flying plateau and is holding up after it was caught up in the selling last week. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base has set up the breakout, showing that money has been moving into the stock. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 184.783K Avg Volume: 244.954K
BUY POINT: $32.06 Volume=350K Target=$37.88 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: PQN GF - July $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slxp.html
Play Date: 05/01/2004
UAG (United Auto Group--$30.77; -0.06; no options): Automotive sales franchises
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uag.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to its nice 4 month base, working laterally and slightly lower as volume fades. This low volume selling is what frustrates those that bought higher but don't want to get caught in another selloff. With the strong 8 to 1 accumulation in the base, that does not look as if it will happen. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout as well.
Volume: 180.1K Avg Volume: 161.909K
BUY POINT: $31.55 Volume=250K Target=$36.45 Stop=$29.34
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uag.html
Play Date: 04/29/2004
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$25.61; +0.99; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped Monday as UTHR started back up off the 10 day EMA (24.59). It backed off late but was good enough to enter. It is still in a very good buy point on further strong volume. Big breakout from an 8 month ascending triangle last Tuesday sporting strong 11 to 5 accumulation.
Volume: 694.576K Avg Volume: 305.545K
BUY POINT: New 26.08 (orig. $25.92) Volume=465K Target=$31 Stop=$24.11
POSITION: FUH HE - Aug. $25c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uthr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/01/2004
BG (Bunge Ltd.--$36.34; -0.71; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bg.html
STATUS: Put. Not quite as high a test as we wanted (37.79) before rolling over. Volume was solid. If it continues the break lower we will take a partial position as it moves through some support at 36. If it then bounces and tests that move through 36 and stalls, we will add to positions at that point. BG had a big volume drop through the 50 day EMA (38.34) last week as BG peaked in early April and started sliding down the 10 day EMA (37.79).
Volume: 805.2K Avg Volume: 580.545K
BUY POINT: Test 37.79, then $37.65 on the way back down. Volume=884K Target=$34.45 Stop=$38.12
POSITION: BG SH - July $40p (-72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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